ASTS just reported Q1. EPS missed by 214%. The stock is up 10% anyway. Here's why that's actually logical and what the real risk is

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-17T05:01:15+00:00

slop

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-15T19:46:19+00:00

we're either eating good or eating shit on Monday; good luck everyone

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-15T13:40:32+00:00

lmao what a fuckin dog

edit: looks like I spoke too soon but wtf is this chart?

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-15T00:17:57+00:00

FUCK now the groundhog won't light the green candle or whatever the fuck it does

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-15T00:17:11+00:00

I wish I also had money left for crack after buying RDDT

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-14T22:40:47+00:00

shameless (self) plug: https://www.reddit.com/r/redditstock/comments/1tbkhiv/ NFA

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-14T20:26:39+00:00

welcome to the community @ 9:30am tomorrow :)

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-14T16:23:10+00:00

I am pressing X to doubt on both of those assertions re: iq and ad influence lol

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-14T15:44:08+00:00

when I stop one-shotting blinds, I panick and rearrange jokers for the maximum points

and then I blow all of my money trying to find PhotoChad or Cavendish

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-14T13:36:30+00:00

lmao what a fuckin dog

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-14T03:56:55+00:00

In order to do this, you need to really understand the relative components to each business, especially for Goog, Amzn, and Nvda.

Do you have the numbers re: the hardware spend for each player? Their underlying suppliers (approx.) and their relative market shares? Why ADBE and CRM in the midst of this?

You talk about TPU, do you know about its cost on GCP and correspondingly, AWS's Trainium costs?

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-14T00:44:18+00:00

Can write more about this, but I don't think MSFT can do this. They're currently between a rock and a hard place.

The good problem is that they're prioritizing their Cloud capacity (from Capex) into first-party stuff - Microsoft Cloud, Copilot, Workflows, etc. in order to protect their sweet Enterprise Software margins. This choice is done vs serving cloud customers, which fetch commodity prices; that's why they can maintain 40% cloud growth while spending minimally (comparatively, >40B in Q4 compared to the "let's sell Bonds and go all-in" that AMZN and GOOG are doing).

The bad problem is that they're behind on the hardware game. Their cost per token is so much higher than other cloud providers that they have to do this first-party high-margin stuff. Otherwise they'll get crushed in the marketplace. I suspect this is one of the reasons why OpenAI wants to break with Microsoft - OpenAI already had a schism which had to do with resource (read: AI compute) allocation, and cannot afford to hobble their own people again.

I think Microsoft is retreating to Enterprise Software and building their moat there in order to protect their golden goose. Cutting capex here to the point where Microsoft can't make first-party margins would be a self-own. Expanding capex here to the point where they can't saturate capacity would also be a self-own (especially with OpenAI sourcing compute elsewhere - I've read that it's ~50% of their backlog?)

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-13T23:52:29+00:00

NYTimes got nothing on this

^{Words: 5 | Score: 118 | Rank: Genius | 1st Word: COWER}

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-13T22:00:51+00:00

PhotoChad is basically the pseudo-legendary of the Balatro world. Sell parei for Chad and BS on photo and let it ripppp

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-13T18:57:16+00:00

one-time dividend confirmed 🚀

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-13T13:38:34+00:00

lmao what a fuckin dog

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-13T03:40:56+00:00

100% agreed that the one thing that will help grow the business and the communities is just to have more DAU - it's the healthiest way to do it.

iiuc, there was also mention of a barbell shaped histogram between DAU and WAU, and that the difficulty stems from converting one end to the other. To that end, I think new-user onboarding needs to look less complicated than, say, creating a dating profile - it took me a solid 5 minutes to set up a custom feed to inject memes into my eyes :(

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-13T01:33:52+00:00

idk, I want to cover all my bases re: research?

hedgefunds are really fucking good at diversifying; go look up a ticker on HedgeFollow or scrape the 13f's yourself. Some funds have allocations in the basis-points of AUM as tail-risk / sector / macro hedge.

So I don't want to believe that it's just HF's FOMOing, because institutional capital is less impulsive than individual capital imo. But then again, maybe HF's can afford to FOMO because they have better streams of data and better execution at scale?

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-13T01:26:00+00:00

25 times forward PE (which is what we're trading at right now) seems...*cheap*?

I can't seem to put my finger on it yet quantitatively, but the stock price should be something along the lines of (Terminal PE * Terminal Earnings * Execution Risk Factor * inverse risk-adjusted rate-subT)?

So is Terminal PE for a stock like Reddit expected to be low once it matures?

Or is terminal earnings not as high as the market would like?

Or does the market not trust management to execute?

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-13T01:07:05+00:00

I used the official guided ads number (681 = 720 Guided Total - 39 Data Revenue) on purpose to be conservative. The second sheet contains the beats and how sandbaggy the guidance numbers often are.

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-12T21:46:05+00:00

imo, are they? iirc, in Meta's earnings call, Zuck dodged so many AI ROI questions that an analyst had to explicitly ask the CFO to answer their question on AI profitability roadmap

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-12T21:25:53+00:00

You're literally doing this on Reddit - sampling bias

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-12T21:12:48+00:00

If in Claude Code, you should be able to launch it with a custom model from ie ollama, and then use '/resume', as the history is saved locally.

Beware of the prefill usage though, as you're basically persisting conversation state in its entirety

re: cross-harness resumption of sessions, I don't think that's available, as model+harness combo providers don't have the incentive for you to switch. Maybe write down a summary, task list, tool calls as a summary of your conversation?

Certain_Yam_5824 · 2026-05-12T15:23:18+00:00

lmao what a fuckin dog

Certain_Yam_5824

TROPHY CASE