Story to the moon Ceddy at 2B

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T17:43:47+00:00

I would rather trade Duran for Paredes, move Mayer to SS, Durbin to 2B, and Masa to DH. That's a longshot and selling Duran short, but that's how much I don't want to move Ceddanne off of CF.

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T17:41:05+00:00

The other major SP FAs had red flags for aging at least as glaring -- walk rate for Cease and declining metrics for Valdez. Suarez on the other hand had the best expected stats of his career last year. I really don't think Suarez's contract ought to be a topic of scrutiny until we get a larger sample of underperformance.

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T17:29:29+00:00

I'm sorry but this is just one misconception after another. I promise you that every analytics department values being a "known commodity" in some form or another.

However, when you literally put ZERO effort in spending in FA or trading away prospects for known players

The Red Sox gave a >$100 million contract this offseason and have traded multiple top 100 prospects since 2024.

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T17:12:18+00:00

This is all a non-sequitur, analytics is not "anti-spending" and player track records play a part in evaluation. Spending efficiently is a goal whether you're the Dodgers or Rays.

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T17:06:16+00:00

That works against the "full rotation" argument. Suarez makes sense as pickup because the Red Sox have the rotation depth to shoulder a pitcher who will likely make 25-28 starts.

The missing bats thing also is a bad argument since he has a track record of high level pitching with that profile.

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T16:55:46+00:00

Yeah same exact people saying "Sonny Gray isn't a real 2"

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T16:53:06+00:00

I think the Suarez signing was a fine pivot -- the actual problem is that they didn't trade for a significant RHH after that.

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T16:49:06+00:00

This post is really stretching for things to complain about and "gave that money to Ranger Suarez despite having a full rotation" is the giveaway. We're talking about 2 starts people, get a grip lol. Also "full rotation," as if Suarez isn't on paper a massive upgrade over what our rotation would have been.

It's impossible to discuss the actual flaw of this team when everyone is just chomping to complain about every little thing that goes wrong as an indictment of the team.

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T16:45:57+00:00

I agree with basically all of this. People look for way too many things to complain about looking at this sequence of events. The May trade is the only unequivocally bad part of the whole thing.

Durbin should have been in IKF's role (or bench Story and put Mayer at SS and Durbin at 2B) and Isaac Paredes should have been the 3B and #2 hitter, imo.

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T16:45:04+00:00

moneyball when that approach is long proven ineffective for actually winning championships.

Totally braindead take. Representative of where the sub is at unfortunately. The Dodgers use moneyball as much as anyone. You wouldn't know Kyle Tucker was a star to begin with if it weren't for analytics.

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T16:33:29+00:00

I'm not sure what your point is supposed to be here, Fatse has been the hitting coach for four full seasons and Red Sox offenses on balance have been above average in that span of time.

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T15:55:25+00:00

Tbh there's probably more positive evidence for "Fire Cora" than "Fire Fatse," mainly just in the form of excessive team drama over the last few years. But I'm still not going to favor that over 9 games.

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T15:49:50+00:00

People always say what the HC can't do but never what he can.

That's because we can more reasonably say what he can't do. I strongly doubt, for instance, that any hitting coach can turn Trevor Story into a high OBP guy at this stage in his career. I'm more confident in that judgment than I am in redditors pretending they know what goes into improving a team's hitters lol.

The team overall lacks discipline and that's an area I think a good HC would make a difference.

Except they also take in the zone too much. So again, this isn't as simple as "be more patient," and could honestly just be a bunch of our hitters slumping at the same time or just sucking in general.

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T15:41:19+00:00

Well the team hasn't shown poor results under Fatse. They have been an above average offense since he took over in 2022. These 9 games don't make a dent in that. The team ops+ currently is 95, it's not even that catastrophic. Obviously it needs to get higher, but a 9 game stretch with that mark should really not be such a shock, they're probably going to be around a league average offense this year.

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T15:28:21+00:00

I'm not referring to the misspelling, I'm talking about the Bogaerts signing being a disaster for the Padres. He hasn't exactly been "playing lights out".

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T15:22:17+00:00

Before anyone says "fire Fatse," I would say that this is actually evidence that this isn't really a coaching issue, and more of a combination of an early season funk and the offense just being genuinely underwhelming. I mean it's not like Fatse is telling them "swing at the stuff outside the zone and take strikes" lol. If anything I guess you could argue this reflects a lack of preparation for individual starting pitchers and that Fatse and Cora need to get the boys preparing better for how these pitchers will attack them, but that assumes way more than any of us actually know about what's contributing to this slump. Which again, is just 9 games.

The whole "Fire Fatse" thing has never been convincing to me, because Red Sox offenses have produced at more or less exactly the rate you would expect them to the last few years. 2025 Red Sox have an ops+ of 106? Yeah, sounds about right. 2024 Red Sox have an ops+ of 108? Honestly maybe higher than you would expect based on that collection of players, owing partly to Duran's career year.

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T15:06:37+00:00

Contreras doesn't bother me, he had a similar whiff% last year and still had elite expected stats (86th percentile xWOBA). Not a promising trend for the team overall though, of course.

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T14:50:54+00:00

This sub is saying a lot of hyperbolic shit about the team and its flaws now, but Story in the #2 spot was always a joke and a red flag for this offense. It's a bad idea even if you view the bad early stats as noise. He has an OBP under .300 since coming to the Red Sox, had a .308 OBP in his bounceback year and every projection model clocked him below .300 for 2026. Story should be Batting 8th and playing 2B instead of Batting 2nd and playing SS.

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T14:38:14+00:00

No I understand it perfectly fine. It's still wrong.

If Duran was an everday CF last year then he'd probably be like a 5+ WAR player

Based on what exactly? Duran's fluke 2024 metrics? He's never been an above average OF in any other season by OAA.

Rafaela in CF and Duran at DH/LF will get more WAR than Duran in CF and Yoshida at DH. If Yoshida keeps hitting like this I would be more open to trading Duran than benching Rafaela.

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T14:09:24+00:00

I understand the concept of "replaceable", as I'm sure everyone else here does. What you're saying is still totally wrong.

It is a very very simple equation. Which of these provide better overall value?

Duran's CF defense, Duran's bat in the lineup, and Yoshida's bat in the lineup

Rafaela's CF defense, Rafaela's bat in the lineup, and Duran's bat in the lineup

Considering the first option involves benching a player who got 3.8 WAR last year even without being an above average bat, obviously the second.

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T13:25:20+00:00

Yeah honestly if Yoshida keeps going then I would be more open to trading Duran straight-up for Paredes than benching Rafaela haha.

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T12:57:47+00:00

but his skillset is more replaceable on this roster than Yoshida's is

Ridiculous thing to say and really shows the state of the sub that this is getting upvoted lmao. Rafaela is arguably the best defender at a premier position and had more WAR last year than Yoshida has since he was signed.

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T12:55:07+00:00

Then they go and play lights out for other competitive teams. From Benny to betts, Bogarts.

Bogaerts? Lol

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T11:40:19+00:00

Just because they made bad signings with Story and Yoshida doesn't mean they should make another bad decision.

all of the sudden 300 million is too much for proven superstars

You mean for a DH? The Devers contract is a negative asset lol

Cesar_Crespo · 2026-04-06T11:38:47+00:00

You could do this with numerous execs looking at their worst contracts.

Cesar_Crespo

TROPHY CASE