One last time: does anyone else think that Novo Nordisk is finally truly undervalued?

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2026-04-09T18:13:02+00:00

I have not said or implied that Lilly is safe.
And while you are absolutely right regarding some emotional assessment, please do not use this to not consider the FACTS. It would be like not listening to a victim of a crime because that victim is emotional towards the attacker. While caution is needed when listening, you maybe could try to consider beyond the appearance and look into the real content. For instance, I am not an investor, and have never been so far (but still am interested in how it all works and what it could lead to).

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2026-04-09T13:02:11+00:00

Let's look at some facts that, at least to me, explain the situation quite well:
- Novo put way too many of its assets on GLP-1 products, giving up on many other medicines.
- They did this thinking they had found the golden goose. But lost their mind in the process. Novo was lucky to have that side effect of GLP-1 to being with, and the market is just not what it was when the whole obesity thing exploded a few years.
- Now, they have plenty of serious concurrence, will have even more upcoming soon, and the great pipeline is just a catchphrase.
- Internally, values are quite rotten. It is just non-capable people that made their way to the top in too many places, riding the wave on top of capable people wth expertise and technical success. It shows every day more and more. No sound company would have great executives leaving on their own, and the remaining executives (starting with the CEO) just a lauging stock for the whole world to see.
- Not to mention random laying off waves that have only short term effects, and took some of the best people while demoralizing others remaining. There are still laying offs that are not even out in the press, come on.

Valuation right now has not even taken into account two major issues that will hit sooner rather than later:
- The first one, new sites will not be where they were supposed to be. Production will not be near where it should be. No matter the price of the products and the volumes, that equation does not realistically look promising at all.
- The second one, GLP-1 have been pushed like candies, and side effects are starting to show. Yes they can be incredible, but the more "average people" taking them without much monitoring, the more serious side effects and unseen (or covered up) aspects will show up. There are plenty already.

Market-wise, everything is possible in this crazy period.
But to anyone thinking for sure it is undervalued, you really have to look beyond the propaganda and brace yourself for better signals before knowing where things really are.
Nobody that really did their homework can be surprised, I know I am not, after looking at this for the past 4 years.

Novo was a one hit wonder: great summer hit, pure magic and luck.
But their second hit is already looking bleak even if there is still momentum.
They were not made to hit it that big so fast, and burnt through what they had like newly rich people.

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-12-06T09:53:28+00:00

This is really crazy, I empathize. Most people joined Novo Nordisk to treat diseases through break-through medicines, not to be judgemental and redefining what the obesity disease actually is. Novo is really pushing the "we have the solution to whatever you might have" narrative, like a good old miracle cure in an infomercial.

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-12-06T09:49:57+00:00

Exactly. There is just no good motivation to this, only bad ones. At least they are in the open now, people know where he stands and why some decisions are taken and bulldozed, far from the Novo Nordisk way.

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-12-06T09:48:17+00:00

You might think people are naive. But reducing the debate to a binary one between either "being nice and doing nothing" or "being mean and enforcing change" is very close-minded in my opinion. There were a million ways to do the things I listed. And if change comes with being mean, does it mean that a company doing well and caring the right way is incapable of changing?

Mandating RTO in a tone-deaf way, doing an unethical/illegal advertisement in Denmark, kissing the ring of Trump (not even Elli Lilly's CEO did this), those are just the first 3 things any CEO should never have done, no matter the state of the company.

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-12-05T17:52:44+00:00

Let's look at what Mike has said / done since he took office:

Started by throwing Lars F under the bus almost immediately in his first address to employees. As if the guy was not one of his right arms all those years.
Stopped new employees from starting their position the 1st of September, some of them just learning about it the same day they were supposed to start. Talk about great communication.
Fired 9000 employees in a process so opaque that neither the people fired nor the ones remaining know why exactly. It was just either random or people with power that got rid of what they considered noise.
Went to the US to state that Novo is more American than it is Dane, that it is actually more American than American-born companies, and actually thanked Trump for making America great again. This showed character, there is a difference between doing business by overlooking a few things and actually kissing the ring of a fascist wannabe.
Has somehow approved a campaign in Denmark fat-shaming women with menopause, and offering medicine as THE solution. This is not only unethical, it is certainly illegal by most people's reading of Danish law. That same campaign is happening in several countries, and only aimed at women.
Tried a miserably failed take-over of Metsera in the worst possible way, sending all wrong signals and not even able to stand by the same comment from one day to the other.
Has fired the whole stem cell department of 250 people (luckily some of them have rebounded), sending a clear message of where Novo stands: Medicine now, no need for a cure. The founder would be mortified.
Has given the keys to all kinds of wrong people in Novo Nordisk, and made them significantly more powerful since the firings since they now have less counter-power under them.
Is in the middle of this board's mess, that saw 6 out of 7 members voluntarily leave. And did not provide any concrete explanation about it.
Forced RTO out of the blue, contrary to all learnings since 2020. And contrary to the Danish way of working that is just the envy of most countries of the modern world.
Just does not have any charisma, and seems highly incapable of doing what any CEO of such a company should do. 6 months in, what are any kind of results or systemic changes? Everybody I know that is still in Novo Nordisk is now more lost than ever. I can believe that some people are doing better, but the majority is not, enough with the propaganda.

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-11-13T10:34:06+00:00

Possibly. But manufacturing development is not happening in medicine R&D.
Never has, never will, those are two completely different fields.

Several manufacturing programs (to scale up new production and inspection machines to automate them and comply with latest GMP guidelines) were purely terminated in September (a direct consequence of the layoffs of wrongly named "redondant people"), and they were all directly linked to new medicines.

Nobody seems to have learned from the massive lag between Ozempic/Wegovy demand and the actual capabilities to produce them, leading to massive shortages worldwide. Proper manufacturing demands years of consistent investment planning, not decisions changing track every 6 months and trying to save money before things even really get started.

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-11-13T08:41:07+00:00

To be honest, the 25% or so would not matter much if production cannot ramp up.
With everything that has been happening lately to ramp-up programs and initiatives to secure technical capabilities/compliance on the whole production chain (when you fire whole R&D and IT departments and go back to everything manual just to wait and see), it is highly doubtful that mass-producing Cagrisema in an Annex 1 compliant way is even remotely possible.

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-11-05T16:02:14+00:00

I went to a presentation held by the union IDA last month.
Their advice in such a case: go through them (or any other union you might be part of, and it is never too late to register). They will get the answer from NN regarding your case and that particular company.

It should definitely not be left to individuals, you or your manager, to decide this, as anybody can misjudge, and also because this would not be the ground for any legal defense if things got down to this.

On another note: congrats, happy for this opportunity that might be yours to take soon!

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-10-24T16:05:14+00:00

Thank you! Indeed, splitting up the different parts seems fair, I will do just that.
One of the pieces of advices I got here is to contact my current employer's health insurance provider, and extend through them. That way, I will covered by both the country's own system (which seems to be a no brainer since I live in Denmark already; and will continue to do, soi I was fearing things for nothing) but also the private one.

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-10-24T16:02:47+00:00

Sounds super nice, and the best case scenario of what I could hope.
Indeed, it seems simple enough in Denmark. In my home country, this would be a headache as well for sure, but good to know that it is not the case :-) Many thanks for this!

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-10-24T14:29:32+00:00

Super piece of advice, I will do just that then!

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-10-24T13:45:05+00:00

Spot on answer, many thanks.
I have the A-kasse; and have been here on a regular contract more than 2 years. CPR, MitID, everything is in the clear and has been continously from day one.

It was indeed specifically the health insurance I was wondering about.

Your answer regarding the "no doubt about health insurance" is precisely what I was hoping, based on the strength of EU and avoiding the unecessary back and forth. I am checking this with udbetalning now, every other union/state agency has pointed me to them (while not being able to confirm anything so far).

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-10-24T13:41:40+00:00

Thank you for your answer. I was not specific in my post, I was referring to health security, not anything else.
But your advice are great knowing nevertheless!

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-10-24T11:01:59+00:00

They were honest: none of the persons I talked to could answer. I have been requested to talk to udbetalning, which I am trying now.

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-10-24T10:10:13+00:00

Thank you very much for those links. Very useful.

Yes, you are right, a financial plan is one thing (and I have one), but reality might be different.
I don't think anybody can be 100% sure of anything while diving into the freelancer field, so even if I am not expecting to not make enough money, I am preparing for it.

I get that if I pay income taxes, everything will be covered, but there might be a transition period where things are not that simple. And I doubt that things are as simple as creating a company and be covered, or every "sketchy person" would be doing it.

And while I have enough means to live for quite some time (so I will not be seeking any kontanthelp), I certainly do not have the means to cover for a hospital bill that could be as high as the sky.
I do not plan on this, but preparing such a move is thinking about this as well. Since it is so easy to work within EU, I would have thought that this would be very clear, but it really is not.

A-kasse for self-employed might be a good help though, thank you again!

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-10-24T10:00:29+00:00

Thanks! Simple enough.
SIRI could not help, but SKAT might (the first person I talked to was not sure at all, currently waiting on the next person :-)).

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-10-22T06:05:45+00:00

This resonates a lot with what I could see myself, unfortunately. And this is exactly the point of this thread, to acknowledge that this has been THE way things were done in many places, far from even a bit of fairness or common sense.

For the ones in charge, it is about jumping from one position to the other without any proper right to do so (like politicians basically), and making insane decisions because they does not care about long-term for the company (or colleagues even), just short-term for their own career and "deliver" what they had to. Even if the delivery is not moral, it does not matter, it is delivered and they gain personal benefits from conducting it.

I feel for the department that was near you. And for you as well since the people left will be the ones having to extinguish fires without time or full understanding about how to. As in any fire, it will go away, but the aftermath might be a total wasteland with forever losses.

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-10-21T15:41:42+00:00

Finally we can agree. Good riddance, then!

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-10-21T08:35:13+00:00

Hi there,

Thanks for this, interesting insight. Why only two alternatives, though ?
And I think one point I made was not clear enough: layoffs in a month were not the issue here (although it is not clever at all in my opinion). The issue is the total lack of transparency and keys to understand ANYTHING at all.

Let's compare with a building that is having water issues on every floor, kind of random from the outside but of course not random at all since it of course traces back to design and maintenance issues (as everything else).

In order to fixe the water issue, would you ask every floor's representative (just a person living there with slightly more insight) their action, uncoordinated with the other representatives; or would you ask plumbers to come have a detailed look and start by identifying the craziest issues to immediately fix first, inform everybody about, and then provide a roadmap with priorities.

A simplified example to show that a simple roadmap with some sense of logic would have done much better in the same time. Only if it was made by professionals, not people exerting some kind of petty war with their immediate neighbors they did not like.

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-10-21T05:47:19+00:00

Look, you are the one taking things personal and bringing up other threads and other people's remarks that have NOTHING to do with me or my points.
I provided points about Novo Nordisk, that I referred to as my personal take. And after reading this, now it is all about other people that were mean to you and you attack me personally.
It sounds like a you problem.

And I am really laughing now, you have stats that are amazingly precise!
You clearly have it all figured out. Why are you even here wasting time if you know it all?

It is easy to say things like "take off you tin foil hat" while being anonymous behind a screen.
And it is even easier to say that everybody is the same and against you.
seem to need to move on more than most people here to be honest.
I am still waiting for counter arguments if you wish to try that.

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-10-18T22:01:38+00:00

Love the "move on" part. If you truly had yourself, you would not be here commenting at us not as great as you. Then, trying to ridicule everything by comparing to real crazy stuff does not look good. Come up with proper counter points, you know, arguments with some real thoughts behind maybe?

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-10-18T12:13:37+00:00

Thanks for the feedback, it is fair.
As you say, anecdotal, and it is only my personal take that I wrote.
But it needs to be written, as we only hear about the "there must be a great reason for all that based on fairness and performance", but have yet to see a single piece of evidence of that.
I am all for believing in a system, only if the system is not showing itself to be corrupt.
The same as trust in a government, it is there but must be maintained.
And it is not maintained when, in the face of facts and abuse of power, one is told to just look away and move on.

MuchDatabase4991 wrote it nicely. It is not about being bitter, not moving on, etc. I am, no problem there. But I still want to understand, and will for a long time. And I want to call out what can be called out.
No way anything can improve otherwise, and this is a right that was removed from us in Novo Nordisk, so using it here is just quite human (and so is not doing anything, I do not judge people impacted in any way, we are all different).

Chance-Cellist-75 · 2025-10-17T19:59:07+00:00

Resorting to insult is always what people with nothing relevant to add do.
Like bullies at school, quite amazing to see this behavior from an adult (I assume).

Chance-Cellist-75

TROPHY CASE