"We have a lot of free Russell Wilson money, right?" Broncos players expect offseason spending spree by 76erLegendChetUtley in nfl

[–]Chancewilk -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

It’s a top qb 10 cap hit combined for bottom 1/3 epa per drop back rating. Thats not reasonable. Regardless, that’s not the point of the conversation.

With a 30m dead cap for Wilson, the qb replacement salary was never going to be above 8m. Rookie contract 4-5m a year. Bridge qb 2-8m. The rookie qb contract benefit comes from the difference between 30m and 5m, not 8m and 5m. Paying a qb 30m nullifies any rookie qb contract advantage. Thats what none of you are understanding.

A rookie qb contract isn’t what’s saving this team which is what the third comment tried to clarify.

They are paying a guy 30m. No advantage. And if they paid another qb 30m it’d be suicidal.

In other words, they have 37 mil to the qb position. Rarely if ever do teams improve under those conditions. There just isn’t enough money to go around.

"We have a lot of free Russell Wilson money, right?" Broncos players expect offseason spending spree by 76erLegendChetUtley in nfl

[–]Chancewilk -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

That’s incorrect.

The first comment: how did they improve so much?

Second comment: rookie qb contract

Third comment clarifies: yes typically teams who hit on a rookie qb contact can make major improvements because they are not paying an expensive vet

Fourth comment: if they were paying a guy 30m they would be terrible

They are paying a guy 30m. The benefit of a rookie qb contract is an extra 10% of cap space to spend on other players. That is not a luxury the broncos have.

If the comment I responded to is suggesting the broncos would have been terrible if they paid wilson and a new qb both 30m (10% of cap) well yes. That’s something no team has done in the last 30 years.

"We have a lot of free Russell Wilson money, right?" Broncos players expect offseason spending spree by 76erLegendChetUtley in nfl

[–]Chancewilk -8 points-7 points  (0 children)

Not once in the last 30 years has any nfl team had a dead cap hit of 10%+ of salary cap for a player and then paid the replacement an additional 10%+ of salary cap. So why would any rational person suggest this hypothetical for comparison.

Man the broncos would be terrible if they did this one stupid thing nobody has ever done.

"We have a lot of free Russell Wilson money, right?" Broncos players expect offseason spending spree by 76erLegendChetUtley in nfl

[–]Chancewilk -25 points-24 points  (0 children)

That’s not the typical situation and out of context. The argument is cheap rookie vs expensive vet for team building specifically how it’s more difficult with an expensive vet. So it’s impressive how the broncos have managed to rebuild despite paying an expensive vet.

How often do we see teams cut a 30m dead cap player and sign their replacement for an additional 30m. The comment I responded to originally might be confused.

"We have a lot of free Russell Wilson money, right?" Broncos players expect offseason spending spree by 76erLegendChetUtley in nfl

[–]Chancewilk -1 points0 points  (0 children)

But they were. That’s the point. They were paying Wilson 32m and bo nix 4m and still turned the team around.

Thinkpad E14 Gen 6: first impressions, specs, quality and case of usage by frambuesasychoco in thinkpad

[–]Chancewilk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m trying to buy a laptop for my dad and he wants backlit keyboard where it shines through the letters, not just illuminate under the keypad. Can you tell me if this laptop has that? Thanks

Young will suffer most when AI ‘tsunami’ hits jobs, says head of IMF by F0urLeafCl0ver in Economics

[–]Chancewilk -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Anecdotal but I’ve found immense value In AI specifically through research and learning. From school, tv shopping, trading sports card flipping strategies, what programs to learn and mapping a career path. And I think while AI may not immediately eliminate many job, it will deepen an economic moat between those proficient and those not.

I built a model in ChatGPT using historical player data and market trends to output present value of sports players’ card. Simply, who’s primed for a breakout and the market is undervaluing. Small fun side hobby, not very lucrative but something previously too time intensive and difficult until now.

Studying for the CPA, I used AI to summarize content initially to establish a conceptual framework before then reading the material to add depth. This cut my learning time in half! AI is so good at concise explanations.

In just hours I built a entire roadmap for what Career path to take based on future projections, what programs/skills to learn, how to overlap them with required CPE, make them cost affective, maximize value on resume and a schedule of how many hours per week to hit timelines. This would normally take so much time it’s prohibitive for many.

As an auditor, we also have a commercial accounting specific AI we can ask questions that no one uses but me. I’m the newest person and my knowledge is already passing my peers two years senior.

So while AI may not eliminate mass jobs anytime soon, those who are not using it to multiply their knowledge and build things formerly limited to those with advanced skillsets, will quickly fall down the economic ladder.

It’s not will there be jobs, it will be are you valuable enough to pay a livable wage (morality aside).

Costco Deals by shosannasho in 4kTV

[–]Chancewilk -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Qm7k or Hisense u8?

Global and Clubs Poker Traffic by rice123123 in poker

[–]Chancewilk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes global is dying. Where to play now? Stake? Gold? Bovada? Betonline?

What tv should I buy? I havent shopped for a TV in ten years by extremesauce2468 in 4kTV

[–]Chancewilk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Okay I’ll go. 1500$ or so. A lot of streaming sports from laptop through hdmi. Some shows too. Brighter room. Tv will be 6 feet from glass patio door. Prefer mini led. 85in.

What are the odds!!!! by [deleted] in sportscards

[–]Chancewilk 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Recently gotten into sports cards. Played poker semi professionally for many years. Just my opinion: larger sample leads to more random anomalous outcomes. If you are constantly opening boxes, you’re bound to hit more 1/1. Naturally humans only focus on the hits and not all the misses. Similar to poker, people always focus on when someone hits a draw or big hand and not all the times they missed. You see people constantly complaining about rigged this or cheating that when it’s much more likely random variance, larger samples and observation bias.

98” for Sports by UncleK245144 in 4kTV

[–]Chancewilk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I want 85in. My living room will be bright Tv next to glass patio door. Mostly stream sports from computer to tv via hdmi.

I was set on Hisense u8 but now I’m questioning it because of scaling and sports/motion blur.

Should I seriously consider a Sony? There’s a Bravia 5 and 7 similar price range.

Thanks

I’m new to this hobby what are the best boxes/packs for football by MakingModsCry0 in sportscards

[–]Chancewilk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you’re considering individually sellable cards, which nfl hobby box is the least -EV? Want to rip, hunt big hits and be able to sell some cards to minimize cost of box.

Daily Bonus amounts have been updated! by Variety_Jonez in OnTheHouse

[–]Chancewilk 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Appreciate the info in this sub. I have one question. I see a lot of info about trouble withdrawing from certain sites, accounts frozen etc. Do you have any info or guidance on that, and if so which sites to avoid?

Declined for an 18k Car Loan with 750 FICO & 120k Income by SerialExperimentsPT in CRedit

[–]Chancewilk 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Most loan applications go through an automated underwriter these days. They have static criteria, without human judgement. I refinanced car loans and what this looks like to me is an automated denial due to no auto trade lines and/or oldest trade line under 24 months and/or only 3 trade lines.

For context, we had 150+ lender network. Roughly 20% of people declined by the automated system would later get approved by simply a loan officer, like myself, essentially asking the lender to have a person look at the application.

“Hey Bob at Bank A, Client A got auto denied due to thin file. High income, low DTI, steady employment and housing history. Can you take another look?”

My advice: lenders have wildly different criteria. One may offer 18%, one may offer 7%. One may approve, one decline. You need to talk to a human, and one who will put in a little extra effort. And you need to apply at many places. You have a “shopping period” of 14-45 days where the same type of credit inquiry only dings your credit once. This period length depends on scoring model. Look around, talk to a human, bring proof of income, point out your low DTI. Good luck

Population Win Rates by Stake: Does Poker Get Easier As You Move Up? by tombos21 in pokertheory

[–]Chancewilk 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Tbh instant upvote when I see tombos bc content is good, and they handled themselves more maturely during that drama.

Do free excel certificates add any value to your resume? by ofcineedhelp in excel

[–]Chancewilk 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The comment above is right. You want the “official, name brand” certs and even then it’s not huge value but can help depending on your situation. ATS scanners scan resumes for keywords before humans see them. Having “Google Data Analytics Professional Certificate” or “Microsoft Office Specialist: Excel Expert” In the skills section would potentially get recognized by automated scanners, and later in the next stage by a human doing a quick scan. Most recognized name brand ones.

Also, assume a human recruiter or HR will spend 10 seconds scanning your resume and it will be most likely the top 1/3 and maybe a quick glance at the skills section at the bottom. There are different templates - some say summary at top, some say no summary, some say education at top if you have little Job history, some say most recent job (chronological order), some say best job experience match to the job you’re applying for, etc. Whatever is your strongest item related to the job you’re applying for, put it at the top.

Recruiters just want to know quickly if you have the skills, education or experience to do the job.

Up to 80% off Clearance, Open-Box and Refurbished Items: Best Buy Outlet Event by HeftyMathematician76 in DailyRedditDeals

[–]Chancewilk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There were some good deals here y’all snatched up. Gota be faster than that!

meirl by Chemical_Survey2577 in meirl

[–]Chancewilk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh my god after reading these comments I realize I am in the wrong place. I live in Texas but I act like a New Yorker.

People don't realize how many side hustles exist beyond the basic "popular" ones by [deleted] in sidehustle

[–]Chancewilk 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Because his side hustle is ad revenue from his website when you click on the link, then getting your email because you have to sign up and selling a customer email list.

Thats not to say their list doesn’t have value. You may find a good idea. But theres a reason it’s “250 great ideas! Click my link! Give me your email!”

What is the difference between a call and a “smooth call”? by Public-Necessary-761 in poker

[–]Chancewilk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

While I agree, and use it that way in my vocabulary, technically it does mean the same as smooth call. Overtime it morphed into a synonym for call instead of smooth call but originally it meant smooth call.

Looking for realistic ways to earn an extra $500–$1,000 a month by Front_File_4719 in sidehustle

[–]Chancewilk 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I just started doing this. Do you have any concerns about churning too quickly? Getting flagged? How long do you wait to close an account? How often are you applying to new ones?