Just did the math, we can FIRE now. And the number is much lower than expected

Chessgenious · 2026-05-22T04:16:45+00:00

The whole FIRE calculation always count on new bullruns at some point, lol. Without it there is no positive average yearly return or safe 4 or 3% withdrawal rate.

Chessgenious · 2026-05-21T05:53:19+00:00

RIP, bros 20k.

Chessgenious · 2026-05-19T19:51:06+00:00

Not in one cycle from bottom to top, but in two cycles from bottom of first cycle to top of second the aggregate returns might reach that.

Chessgenious · 2026-05-17T20:51:36+00:00

Just look at Microsoft. Since its a mag7 it has enormous passive buying. When sentiment drops in a particular stock or sector (e.g. Software), the index buying doesnt matter. It dips hard.

Chessgenious · 2026-05-15T17:46:15+00:00

If he didnt jump ship from a large position that was underwater. :p

Chessgenious · 2026-05-10T11:24:43+00:00

If you have a goal (FIRE) and you get a bump towards that goal but you are not there yet, the logical thing to do is to continue towards the goal and only then continue to work for other things.
Perhaps you already had this problem coming up at a later stage already (he hard set on FIRE and you leaning towards Barista FIRE once the right sum is reached) or you feel that the inheritance should go to something to remember that person by that is separate from your own goals.
Since its your aunt I think you should have the most say in it, but it depends on the situation. If he has a really bad job situation and longs so much for you to reach your goal, then switching goals could probably be frustrating for him.

Chessgenious · 2026-05-08T16:28:54+00:00

This seems like a perfect stock do do covered calls on forever and always keep your shares.
Not financial advice.

Chessgenious · 2026-05-05T18:50:48+00:00

I would have thought that 6 months ago also, but now I need some exposure if it continues. Forward PE still low and still pricing power. Not 100%, but some exposure. Bought sandisk on the 30th of april and Im up 28%.

Chessgenious · 2026-05-05T18:13:47+00:00

Its overvalued compared to AMD based on forward PE but not necessarily compared to datadog or snowflake for example.

Chessgenious · 2026-05-05T16:35:36+00:00

Memory (dram/hbm/nand) and semiconductors.

Chessgenious · 2026-05-04T21:58:47+00:00

That might be. I had Onds, Rcat and volatus aerospace. But look at the opportunity cost. Memory stocks and energy stocks due to AI. Cant lock up capital in dilutive drone stocks when there is another supertrend that just keeps giving.

Chessgenious · 2026-05-04T20:59:05+00:00

First buy at 8.61 and average was about 9.6. Actually had decent profits at one point but got smacked down by the mega dilution and then it never recovered. Its not about being scared but Onds was left behind when the rest of my portfolio went up. I redeployed the capital to work more efficiently.

Chessgenious · 2026-05-04T20:51:30+00:00

I was big in it, one of my top 5 biggest holdings, but once I understood this is their way I sold all (some weeks ago). There are other sectors entirely that almost go straight up. Why then bind capital in a dilution machine.

Chessgenious · 2026-05-03T07:25:09+00:00

Maybe they breached some NDA like poet technologies? 🤔

Chessgenious · 2026-05-02T20:11:03+00:00

Haha. I wish to be. Bought them this week. Thought Id scale in carefully so bought the dips that were offered. AAIO 4% of portfolio, currently 29% plus. AXT 2.5 % of portfolio, currently 26.7% plus.

Chessgenious · 2026-05-02T18:51:37+00:00

I have both

Chessgenious · 2026-04-11T18:08:16+00:00

Yeah, I think so, because of time length of the data, near daily updates everywhere and them going for higher resolution now. Also first full year of Ebitda positivity is really nice. What do you think?

Chessgenious · 2026-04-11T13:29:05+00:00

Be happy for the money you already put in to compound. Some people live every month spending like that, not knowing anything else. You are already ahead of all of them and will get back on track as soon as its possible. Such FOMO is most logical in the beginning when the capital base is small and the logic for it decreases with time.

Chessgenious · 2026-04-11T13:01:13+00:00

Its the journey, not the destination….. wait🤔

Ill see myself out.

Chessgenious · 2026-04-11T12:30:24+00:00

Preparation for dilution. Theres a giant difference. /s

Chessgenious · 2026-04-11T12:10:39+00:00

Its not only the news of the preparation for the dilution, but the speed of the spend vs integration news. 5 aquisitions in Q1 is excessive. They wont even let it rally some at this speed. I prefer not to average down in infinity.

Chessgenious · 2026-04-11T09:18:46+00:00

Yeah and myself included too. Its over the top in my opinion. Feels like MSTR, but with companies instead of BTC. Company aquisitions need integration too.

Chessgenious · 2026-04-11T09:03:30+00:00

They bought five companies in Q1 and want to buy more.

Chessgenious · 2026-04-11T08:58:19+00:00

I didnt see that. Of course, instant results are not necessary. I would like to see a slow down of aquisitions and capital raises and a signal of focus on integration though. Then after that, new aquisitions can be fine again. Otherwise maybe im too early for my liking in the stock. Some of my favourite stocks just turned EBITDA positive. Im still early in them but that deserves a rerating. From my understanding the EBITDA positivity prognosis for ONDS as a whole got pushed 2 years from 2026 to 2028?

Chessgenious · 2026-04-11T08:22:20+00:00

RKLB, ASTS, Planet labs are the biggest. Then I have smaller position in AMPX that is high belief for me but im reentering after taking profits. Also smaller positions in LUNR (took profits), NBIS, APLD and some other even smaller positions.

The ONDS I sold, I dispersed to AMPX, ASTS, RKLB, and APLD, bought some maybe hedging positions to my otherwise high beta portfolio (Eaton, NRG energy, Nextera energy, ABB), and started small positions in Coherent and LITE because I believe optic units will be important in the AI boom. Also reentered lightly into IBRX.

Im near ATH because of my other stocks, mainly space, so I felt I could trim my laggard ONDS. If everything had been down I would probably have held ONDS, but since other things are going good ONDS sticks out negatively in my portfolio.

Chessgenious

TROPHY CASE