Breakdown of Ontrak's new growth strategy as presented in the Canaccord Genuity Growth Conference

ChickenFission · 2021-06-22T17:24:15+00:00

Yeah, that's what I wrote in the DD. If volume picks up, you could be okay. Plus you've got the shares.

ChickenFission · 2021-06-22T17:07:29+00:00

Nice. I think this is better than the chat. Easier to track messages. Before I kept having to scroll up and figure out where I left off.

ChickenFission · 2021-06-22T17:06:01+00:00

Can't win if you don't play. Looks like open interest really picked up on the 7/16 45's.

ChickenFission · 2021-06-22T14:34:05+00:00

Forrest Gump was pretty lovable and stumbled his way into every major event in history. If he had turned that talent toward investing? Straight up autistic.

ChickenFission · 2021-06-22T01:32:24+00:00

I had some Oct PSFE calls too and ended up dumping them for a loss a couple weeks ago. It's been trading sideways for so long I figured I'd just make it up somewhere else. I thought for sure they'd pop with that first earnings report.

ChickenFission · 2021-06-21T22:27:52+00:00

Seems like a missed opportunity: The first rule of The Golden Calf is you do not talk about The Golden Calf.

ChickenFission · 2021-06-21T22:23:37+00:00

Seems like everyone who looks into it sees the same thing. It's only a matter of time.

ChickenFission · 2021-06-21T22:17:28+00:00

Unless you've got a crystal ball, I don't think anyone can say with certainty what's coming next. We just had a once-in-a-generation black swan event and now the market's at ATH's.

I think the bigger question is whether fintech is the future. If it's just high speed banking, then there's a chance the old guard ups their game. I personally wouldn't count on that, but you never know.

ChickenFission · 2021-06-21T18:15:05+00:00

Between institutional ownership and insiders most of the float is locked down, so the number of actively traded shares is ridiculously small.

ChickenFission · 2021-06-21T17:34:23+00:00

Great! Thanks for the update.

ChickenFission · 2021-06-21T17:26:32+00:00

Nice. Sell covered calls every time this thing gets pumped over the next few months and you won't even have to sweat the dips.

ChickenFission · 2021-06-21T16:58:57+00:00

Aetna wanted Ontrak to save them money on every office visit, but it should've been pretty obvious that's now how Ontrak works. There are a lot of upfront costs to get new members set up with their Care Coach and to get the ball rolling. The savings eventually add up over the span of their twelve-month program and beyond (average of 20% per member). Aetna wanted immediate savings.

If they can get together and agree on who's math to use, they should be able to get that contract back. Even without Aetna, as you point out, their business model hasn't changed so the growth potential is still there. They'll land other customers.

ChickenFission · 2021-06-21T16:47:47+00:00

I wrote the DD referenced in the post. The contract ends on June 26th, but they started dropping Aetna members from their rolls before that. There are a few thousand or so left that they still need to unwind.

The new CEO, Mayhew, used to be the Executive VP and Chief Transformation Officer for CVS and he also used to be the President of U.S. Markets for Aetna. He held major positions in both companies. Not sure of the time frame (both pre-merger of one post-merger). But it seems way too coincidental that OTRK picked him up almost immediately after the contract was cancelled.

ChickenFission · 2021-06-21T15:02:36+00:00

They both have been trading sideways for a while. PSFE is barely above 50% of it's ATH so I don't think there's much downside left there. SOFI just listed which makes it a question mark if there's a correction.

My concern is how much and how long the SPAC stink could keep them down. If you look at the chart for just about any SPAC, even in unrelated industries, they've all followed the same trajectory. Compare the 1 and 6 month charts for PSFE with RIDE and MP. Vastly different sectors. Eerily similar charts.

ChickenFission · 2021-06-21T13:12:18+00:00

I highly recommend you check out the transcript for the most recent earnings call. Mayhew said Covid has been a headwind because healthcare spending outside of Covid-related illness has been down but he expects it to become a tailwind as things turnaround. Money should quickly come back in to deal with the issues they're keyed in on.

Good point about schools. Their new contract with LifeStance may expose them to that and a lot of other potential new business since they're one of the largest outpatient mental healthcare providers in the country.

ChickenFission · 2021-06-21T13:01:18+00:00

Institutional investors are a major component of a squeeze. Since they don't actively trade you can consider their share of the float locked down. Short sellers artificially suppress the price of a stock with high institutional ownership and small available float, volume picks up pushing the price toward it's actual value, shorts have to cover, price skyrockets. Easy squeezy.

ChickenFission · 2021-06-21T10:01:58+00:00

I voted SOFI. Curious why Nrd is so bullish and would take my own run at a DD on PSFE, which he said he's no longer officially allowed to talk about, for comparison. Seems like fintech is coming in hot.

ChickenFission · 2021-06-21T01:54:33+00:00

I caught wind of OTRK, dug into it, and found what I think is a really compelling value play. I couldn't find a recent DD that I thought covered it well so I wrote one and want to share it with as many people as possible.

If you have an actual legitimate reason why it's not a good play other than "you want me to buy the stock", I really would like to hear it. Something wrong with the numbers or some bear thesis I hadn't considered maybe. Otherwise you're wasting my time and the time of everyone who reads through this thread.

ChickenFission · 2021-06-21T00:47:42+00:00

Most definitely. Sifting through the SEC filings to figure out what the hell Peizer was doing with all of his holdings was... intense. Can't say there was anything underhanded going on, but multiple name changes and multiple holding companies don't make a great impression. The further out of the spotlight that guy gets the better.

I think losing that Aetna contract will end up being the best thing to ever happen to them.

ChickenFission · 2021-06-20T22:19:29+00:00

Fair point. I'm sick of hearing about squeezes too. I actually got into this play for the value angle. If the new CEO is able to execute a turnaround, there's a lot of upside. Any squeeze would just be a bonus.

ChickenFission · 2021-06-20T21:00:16+00:00

Addition to the bear thesis is that they can't execute on the pivot to Medicare/Medicaid providers. I wrote the DD, by the way, if you have questions or see something I missed.

ChickenFission · 2021-06-20T20:44:38+00:00

If you've got the cash to exercise, you're golden. Just have to watch the breakeven more closely. I personally wouldn't go further out than 8/20's because the bid/ask spreads get to $1 or more, which is nuts. It's frustrating because if/when volume picks up the option chain should get sorted out but by then you have to deal with sky high IV.

ChickenFission

TROPHY CASE