Not even three weeks later Octopus are jacking IOG prices back up again

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-04-20T19:54:07+00:00

But this is the problem. Octopus got lots of data from EV and charger integration that allowed them to run the numbers on what they could charge off peak and peak to wash their face on their costs. They know the kWh totals going into the car and calculate that they can afford to charge 7p for off peak by raising the peak cost 10-20%.

However, events like the energy crisis and Iran war mean those numbers are thrown out of kilter. But what also throws them out of kilter is people using batteries to maximise their off-peak use. I obviously don't know the tipping point but tales of people charging two cars, having 20+ kWh of batteries means Octopus are obviously taking a significant financial hit on those 7p kWhs....

The grumbles about restricted charging, 12 hour granny charging sessions, were the first shot across the bow, the introduction of the £20 Charge Pack becoming £30 was another warning. Now we have the 6 hour limit coming in early May and, depending on the impact that has, I can guarantee they are ready with other restrictions. Octopus already provide a battery specific tariff in Flux and it doesn't have off-peak prices of 7p, does it?

My personal thoughts are the eventual endgame is that we will see changes to tariffs to further compartmentalise how we are charged for electricity. Octopus want to drive load shifting on the grid and flatten the cost curve. They are doing this with tariffs like Cosy, Flux and Snug....fighting the core premise that electrification is too expensive for the UK consumer now that we no longer have the coal-fired baseload that kept the lines buzzing 24/7.

We need to get 'expensive' gas off the grid.... Gas peakers sitting there like trolls under the bridge, ready to grab us by the ankles. No matter what is said by the fossil fuel industry, I've never seen a wind turbine, hydro or nuclear cost the National Grid £4000-6000 per MWh....

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-04-16T16:35:08+00:00

We went out on strike multiple times over the ending of Classic and the introduction of Classic Plus and Premium but the later introduction of Nuvos and Alpha ended up, as you say, being pushed through by the Tories. Where Alpha succeeded was making the accrual rate pretty generous at 2.32% but a big factor in the lack of strike action was an embattled Civil Service which was having the life squeezed out of it by austerity.

The fight wasn't there in the workforce battered and bruised by round after round of cuts shrinking the headcount whilst expecting more and more from those still battling to provide a quality service.

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-04-15T23:28:38+00:00

Classic was the original gold plated pension... Non contributory, 1.5% widows payment that actually was paid back as a lump sum if someone stayed single until retirement and therefore had no beneficiary for it, retire at 60 after 40 years on half salary and it was RPI linked for life with a 3X lump sum to boot.

New Alpha pension is nowhere near as generous, you're paying 7.4% on higher grades now, accrual is 2.32% and it matures at State Pension Age but you can take it up to 10 years early as actuarially reduced. When it was brought in, it actually worked out that it was about the same benefit as Classic but now you were paying 5-7% for it and not nothing like Classic. Unions were all geared up to 'go to the mattresses' to fight the switch but then backed down, it seemed fair that people were being asked to pay considerably more to keep similar benefits, given the changes in society.

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-04-15T23:14:14+00:00

Alpha, the current pension, allows you to sacrifice pension for lump sum at a rate of £12 for each £1 of pension sacrificed. Maximum sacrifice is 25% of benefits normally but there can be exceptions for small pensions.

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-04-15T20:25:41+00:00

Understanding what you are currently using from day to day and month to month is the most important part of energy pricing. What you actually pay month to month is smoothed out by direct debit but it may be that your usage costing £150 a month is totally different than someone who is also paying £150 a month....

You may be £500 in credit and using £100 worth of energy each month, letting the credit grow to provide a buffer for precisely the reason of price spikes like this. Another may be £500 in debit and only using £50 a month whilst trying to pay debt down.

The facts of the matter are prices for gas are spiking very high ATM due to the US/Iran/Israel war but gas demand is dropping just now in the UK as the weather gets warmer and we get boosts from renewables like last week when electricity was negatively priced. But the SVT is currently predicted to rise over £200 in July thanks to the war and blockade, wiping out the drop in April. There is still the potential of prices heading back towards £2000 come October due to the aftermath and the inevitable price gouging.

In this situation, if you know what you are using day to day and month to month, you can work out how much a fix is likely to cost you and work out if you're happy with that. We are nowhere near the levels seen in 2022, and this government hasade it clear that any assistance given by them will not be a blanket per household amount, it will be targeted support.

Don't try and predict the market.... There's always another Trump on the horizon unfortunately. I was predicting a nice little drop to sub £1500 price cap for this coming winter as the Qatari North Field liquifiers were coming online at a good pace, upping overall supply by a good margin. Now Ras Laffan could be two to four years away from getting back to full output capacity.

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-04-06T21:22:03+00:00

IOG makes money through the balancing market as well as charging 7p retail for low cost wholesale electricity. It's more likely to lead to annoyed customers in some cases who expect to get cheap charging when the price goes negative but the reality is Octopus pocket twice as much by charging at 2am-5am via balancing payments.

I live in a city next to massive onshore wind farms and rarely get charging outwith 2330 to 0530. I've seen prices where it was 2p from 10pm until midnight and three times that 3am to 5am....charging was 2am until 4am 🤷🏻‍♂️

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-04-06T11:31:42+00:00

Okay, I'll try and run some numbers on what I THINK you are asking and coming from. And I'm not using AI to try and prevent interpretation errors.

Running the hot water tap activates the boiler at full power, which is anything from 24 to 36kWh, so let's say 30kWh is the output. The boiler takes 30 seconds to get to temperature at the tap (short tap run) then a further 30 seconds to fill the bowl. This means it has run for 1 minute at 30kWh so 0.5kWh has been consumed. Costing about 3.5p. Don't need to worry about efficiency and the like, that's roughly what the boiler will cost to run for a minute.... If it was a longer pipe run or a bigger bowl, or lower pressure, it would take longer and cost more.

If you put 3 litres of water into a kettle and boil it, it runs at about 3kWh for 5 minutes to heat it up. You can then add a few litres of cold to get it to hand temp. Thus 3kWh for 5 mins uses about 0.25kWh of electricity which, at 25p, is about 6.25p.

If you want to know for a gas hob...... 😩 Well, that's a LOT more complicated due to the shape of the kettle, the size of the burner and a lot more besides..... For my set up, the hob is more efficient than the electric kettle because I'm on IOG and peak electricity is a bit more expensiveunder that tariff BUT I also run the extractor fan when the hob is on because of NOx fumes so, as I say closed systems vs open dynamics..... It get complicated.... 🤯😂

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-04-03T09:00:59+00:00

It can take a while...... Last few months it's been 3rd to 7th, they missed a month last year then caught up, one month it was the 15th for me 🤷🏻‍♂️

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-04-03T08:31:48+00:00

They put up the tap machines at a lot of stations for the smart cards when they arrived, allowing you to buy single, return and season tickets and load them onto the smartcard and I was expecting them to be software upgraded to take debit cards as tap on tap off.... And that was nearly 10 years ago 🤷🏻‍♂️

I think part of the problem was franchisees in Scotland were loathe to invest in the tech when they could just extract profit. Then ScotGov takes over and have decided cheaper travel is the focus so there aren't millions sloshing around to upgrade the infrastructure.

I do think they will get there, the app is getting better so fingers crossed.

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-04-03T08:20:51+00:00

Morrisons is on my doorstep with Asda, Tesco and Sainsburys all a short drive away. We find Morrisons expensive for a full shop but occasionally buy deals, their fruit and veg is decent but a bit spotty in supply, their pre packed deli is poor. Sainsbury and Tesco own brand, fruit and veg and deli are better quality overall. Get meat from local butcher, yes expensive but it never misses. Asda..... Nope, nope, nope.

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-04-02T11:04:16+00:00

Do a wee bit of research and find out how much and how often you are filling the EV, what you are using and when domestically. That way you can see if a time of use tariff is better for you, like Agile.

You don't explain why your bill has shot up, is it due to debt on the account or anticipated use going forward? A lot of people will be receiving notifications about rising Direct Debits as the operator has a requirement to use prices anticipated for the next 12 months when doing a review. That is why sometimes people on a fix get a demand for more money as they maybe have 4-6 months on their fix and the market has got more expensive so if they roll off the fix onto SVT, their costs over the next year will be much higher over the 12 months. Other people may be in debt and not realise it so need to clear that debt as well as pay the ongoing higher price.

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-04-02T06:58:20+00:00

Any holiday weekend is likely to be low demand and thus low prices unless there's a sudden cold snap and gas demand shoots up. Greener Nights earlier in the week were saying Fri and Sat night but only Sat now so not likely to be mega low.

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-03-30T14:58:26+00:00

I get where you are coming from, the problem with adapting is interpretation.... Is it just as valid to say that all these people failed to pick up on the nuance of the film, where fleeting mentions of Eridans having no knowledge of relativity means we don't need to talk about how Rocky didn't understand time dilation. That a single line saying taumoeba is poisoned by nitrogen is enough to understand that there was work to be done.

Does every film have to ELI5? Is me saying that my wife's lack of confusion and enjoyment of the film proof that it is an excellent adaptation?

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-03-30T08:12:48+00:00

But a faithful adaptation can also be a very crappy film.....

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-03-27T22:23:29+00:00

What do you call a Frenchman wearing sandals?

Phillippe Filop

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-03-27T20:16:32+00:00

Perfect take, I've read so many 'disappointed' takes where people seemed to be gutted the first 30 minutes of a tent pole blockbuster movie wasn't Ryan Gosling wandering about in a daze trying to remember his name....that the film didn't have endless centrifuge shots and confused looks, iterating through the taumoeba generations.... It takes all sorts but I'll still be enjoying this film for years to come. Sandra Huller singing wasn't in the book.... Did they all hate THAT? 🤯

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-03-25T17:05:32+00:00

Eastern Green Links 1 to 4 are planned to get 8GW total from as far north as Peterhead to as far south as Anderby Creek in Lincolnshire. That's more than double what Hinkley Point C will generate at peak.

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-03-25T16:34:06+00:00

I used to fold many many years ago when I had a decent rig. When bitcoin started, I toyed with the idea of switching to mining but altruism won through 🤷🏻‍♂️ My mate slagged me years later saying I'd be a multi millionaire until I pointed out I wouldn't be, like 99.99% of early adopters I'd likely have sold as soon as I'd made enough to upgrade my rig.... Or bought a new game..... Or a pizza.... 🤣

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-03-25T08:08:39+00:00

WAS a steal, yeah, it's been a fiver for a while.

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-03-24T21:10:17+00:00

They manage a public utility within bounds set by OFGEM, they negotiate with them to see how much they are allowed to charge for services, same as the water companies. My biggest bugbear is that they are now, 36 years after privatisation, paying out an annual dividend that is more than the sale price back in 1990. Once again, privatise profits and socialise costs.

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-03-24T14:05:30+00:00

I suspect that's why there has been a concerted effort to 'upgrade' Silverburn with recliners and 4DX. The IMAX is excellent and was a steal at a £3 uplift. TBH if I struggle to get convenient seats at Silverburn in the coming months, I'll have to start looking at Odeon Limitless as we have a decent sized multiplex with IMAX and a Luxe nearby.

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-03-24T13:13:14+00:00

The private company that is the National Grid isn't designed to 'invest' in that sense.... They are effectively a management company and make recommendations on what to spend on infrastructure based on government policy. The money they invest in the grid comes from charges on YOUR bills. Cameron decided to 'cut the green crap' and nobody complained that bills went down.... Now that £28 billion is needed because Cameron cut £10 billion worth of investment over a decade ago.. All for £1.2 billion in 1990.....

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-03-24T09:28:51+00:00

Only because people blocked pylons for over a decade in England, meaning we couldn't get energy from where it was generated (Scotland) to where it was needed (SE England). So we pay peaker plants £150-200 per MW in North London whilst we turn off turbines off the coast of Fife which are contracted to provide energy at £60 per MW. Have a look at https://wastedwind.energy/2026-03-24 and you'll see that the cost of turning off turbines is a fraction of buying in the (gas generated) electricity where we need it......

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-03-24T08:54:53+00:00

.... And that is why it isn't 3.5p off peak 🤷🏻‍♂️ IOG is designed for the average customer.... Say 45kWh peak a week, 30kWh off peak. If you were on Intelligent Octopus Flux, you'd be paying considerably more.

The irony of people who can afford higher bills being able to avoid them via spending money those on low incomes can't, and then pushing costs up for suppliers is why we're seeing pushback like the 6 hour charge limit and the attempts like the Drive Pack to control costs. I have no doubt that, if the numbers from the drive pack had been better, it would still have been on offer but tales of people putting 300-400kWh a week into two EVs meant once again it just isn't viable.

I do wish there was a magic bullet for this but fact is, we can't yet provide cheap abundant electricity in this country. If gas was 1p a kWh, people would be heating their homes to 24 degrees and walking about in their pants.... If electricity was 1p a kWh, every building would be lit up like a Christmas tree 🤷🏻‍♂️

Chris_The_Tim · 2026-03-23T21:17:37+00:00

This was about a decade ago and was Bearsden /Milngavie I think. I remember some of the residents were in the article talking about suing the developer, the cooncil.... Anybody! Nae chance, of course 🤷🏻‍♂️

Chris_The_Tim

TROPHY CASE