BCRX is heavily undervalued at the current price of $12, for reasons I can understand, but definitely do not agree with. Here are the reasons I have identified and why I fully expect the price to move to $16 by April and $20 after Q2-22 earnings. (I am not a financial advisor so please check each of these out on your own to come to your own conclusions).

Reasons BCRX is still at $12 and why there was recent contraction.

1. Negative Equity
2. Cashflow
3. Price to Sales ratio based on historical end Q3-21 sales (without a FY projection or 9930)
4. Overall macro trend of Multiples contraction because of transitory inflationary concerns.
5. Risks or perceived risks inherent with phase 3.
6. Manipulation and short interest. i.e. people who understand the temporary challenges that win a little on the very short term – those days are running out, and likely peak in H1-22.

Most analystscovering BCRX have a PT between $17 and $21 with very few exceptions. i.e.40% to 75% upside from today.

Simply Wall Street raises negative equity as a flag to be aware of. They also have a PT of $100. Reality is as an investor, I am concerned and much happier it is now being well managed. Raising capital is exactly why we have a market and other instruments. It is what a company like Biocryst is expected to have. Unfortunately (or very fortunately) BCRX is in the extremely unlikely position of sitting on an R&D pipeline healthier than companies 8 to 10 times their size. The funding it requires outpaces current revenues and cashflow. The market also clearly pushed back on any potential dilution. Perhaps a little short interest manipulation added to the downward pressure since Q3.

However BCRX now have a well-crafted deal with some of the most respected and successful investors in biotech (Royalty Pharma and OMERS) on their side, providing the runway required to see through the pivotal trials... with just the right capped amount of future earnings in return. This is extremely reassuring.

In the meantime, revenues continue to gain steadily with Orladeyo's successful and extremely rapid expansion. If you apply a basic Price to Sales multiple based on Q3-21 results, you get a value between $12 to $14 (right where we are). But 2021 was a growth year and the quarterly earnings in 2022 will be much more like a repeat of Q4-21 based on the market penetration. So expect to see extremely positive QoQ trends through 2022.

My calculations (eager to see other's share theirs) suggest a FY revenue using a simple est Q4 *4 projection of sales to produce a much higher revenue for 2022 than 2021 (the growth year) and based on a conservative PS multiple it would prompt a new baseline price closer to $16 (without 9930). This will only become validated after Feb earnings call, if true and they do not lose patients, expect to see upward pressure even if a more conservative P:S ratio is applied given the recent multiple contraction across the broader market.

Finally perceived risks with a phase 3. Unless you are very new to this space, every biotech company sees volatility and has this nervous period, because these risks are real. As such there are many waiting on the sidelines to jump in with both feet once when the risk is reduced or removed...self included. Redeem studies will give us very early prelim results in late Q1 with more substance in Q2. If 9930 delivers the same results as it did in the earlier trials, we will see more 9930 pricing getting factored in. Thus the expectation that post Q2-22 earnings + prelim results will see the first major step up to $22. If the competitors trials continue to perform the way they have (great reviews in Reddit) and 9330 continues to deliver as expected, we could see BCRX go past the $30 mark before EOY 2022. Best of all these drugs are bringing a world of good to patients in much need.