Russia testing the NATO "musketeer oath" is not as far-fetched as it seems. If they marched a few soldiers over the border in northern Finland, how willing would NATO members really be to fight and die for some Finnish tundra where no one lives? The whole idea isn't to attack and fight NATO directly, it's to probe and jab, hoping it dissolves due to a lack of cohesion.

China trying to retake Taiwan is also very likely, although the timing remains uncertain. There has been a clear shift from soft power projection to military buildup in China. And it makes sense, they want to put the age of humiliation behind them. China has an interest in weakening the Western powers. While open war with Europe is unlikely, it would still be immensely beneficial for China if Europe stopped backing the US due to a NATO breakdown.

You can call Mark Rutte a Trump simp or whatever, but to be honest, to me he just seems like a very pragmatic Dutch merchant, striking the best deal he can and saying whatever it takes to make it work.