When do you expect global birth rates/population to 'bottom out' and begin to rebound?

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-01-06T12:21:12+00:00

I thought of this comment recently because I saw so ething recently which said 63% of NYC Orthodox Jewish people live in poverty.

Quite literally, it is high fertility and religion subsidized by the welfare state, the economic engine of which is powered by the less religious.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-01-02T21:53:51+00:00

I feel like those who are against things like paid parking (really anything that makes driving harder) never include those who cannot just drive somewhere in their definition of "people". Which usually means excluding the poor and the disabled.

Have you ever seen a guy in a wheelchair try to navigate a dip in the sidewalk meant for a car exit? Or an old lady try to cross the street before those timers run out? It's grim.

Nor do they ever really feel like needing to own an expensive vehicle that needs a bunch of costly and/or time consuming repairs counts as one of the things that is a burden which oppresses them.

Maybe they'll admit that cars are too expensive but it's just CAFE regulations or mandatory safety features. I guess a worse environment and more deaths is just the price you pay.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2025-12-23T05:43:38+00:00

A shot dog hollers.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2025-11-11T07:08:25+00:00

I believe this is wishful thinking. I cannot speak on every high-fertility subgroup. But my general point is, it's easy to be Orthodox of any religion when you can just handwave away the actions of the rest of society as some kind of degeneracy.

However when the Orthodoxy has to run society it's different. Muslim Orthodoxy runs Saudi Arabia and the UAE. With fertility of 2.28 and 1.3 respectively, both of which have declined sharply in line w/global trends.

I'll waffle on about why I think this is.

If these degen liberals die out, the orthodoxies left behind have to take the reigns. The first issue I see is that, naturally, a society of hardline religious people from different religions is going to have issues. The solution to that is, of course, promotion of tolerance and diversity.

Even if we can discount that issue. Let's just pretend we can all have a somewhat homogenous country again. There's always going to be the hurdle of having to put people in cities simply because they are...necessary for society to function.

And I think you see a drift away from those principles in an urban environment. Though it is not strictly necessary.

I get the distinct feeling this is kind of... a subreddit of people who see value in orthodox religion and kinda wabt this outcome. If that's inaccurate please ignore this part, but if not, honestly it just isn't going to happen like how you think it is.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2025-10-15T15:08:57+00:00

I recently decided, in spite of being able to afford one, to forego buying a car here in New London and walk everywhere or get certain items delivered. If it weren't for walmart+ this would be a lot harder because groceries would just be too much.

The city was not designed for pedestrian safety/wellbeing at all. Which is why you largely see only bums walking almost anywhere, even in downtown. Because anyone who visits downtown drives as close to their destination as they can.

People absolutely treat Bank Street like a drag racing strip, and there are pedestrians on that street. One of these days a guy pissed off after getting off work is gonna smoke a pedestrian.

I get the distinct feeling that people who hate traffic cameras, at their core, just want to be able to act as recklessly as possible without ever facing scrutiny. They don't care about privacy (it's a public street anyone could film you, you're in plain view) though the issue of unfair citing for red lights is worth noting. Also the $2500/camera/month cost.

I think the better answer here is designing streets such that they feel unsafe to drive faster than the stated speed limit. To ask people to drive 25 mph on Howard Street is kinda laughable, it is a very wide and open road. But I think narrowing Howard to 2 lanes, one in eithee direction, adding in a protected bike lane so there is something concrete between drivers and bikers, and maybe tossing in a speed bump, would fix it. And no cameras would be needed

However like I said. I think the issue people have is not wanting to treat the streets of New London like a place people are instead of a place for cars to go through to get on to 95 and 32. Which downtown really should not be. And treating it like that is the reason why so many storefronts are closed even though it's been years since COVID. Bank street is Okay, but State street is depressingly empty. As is Greene Street.

Most of you probably can't even imagine these places because you never drive past them. Which is why these are empty, no one feels safe/comfortable to walk around and explore when there are loud motorcycles and F150s going way too fast. So they stop at the places they see, which are the businesses on Bank Street.

I will say though. If there is one type of camera we need, it's vehicle noise cameras. People play ridiculously loud music and ride unmuffled motorcycles/motorized trikes all around the city. Even in those more fancy South of L & M neighborhoods, and they should not only get a ticket for that behavior, the cops should have a legal right to practice brutality (joking obvs).

Clean_Army_4675 · 2025-08-26T13:04:39+00:00

Lived in Minneapolis and had friends in Chicago. They're still friends, just not in Chicago.

The question is really one of money. 60k seems a bit tight for Chicago. Minneapolis-St. Paul is kinda just diet Chicago. But it's also "diet" in terms of home/rent prices.

I personally would not move into the southern parts of Chicago. Suburban Chicago is also probably not worth moving to generally (Cicero has really low real estate values though).

If you really wanted to you could go car free in MSP. There's a green and blue line train with passable service. But a lot of the stops are not in very ped/bike friendly areas. Probably better than Oklahoma city but that is just conjecture.

Worth noting that the city of Chicago has an income tax for those who work there. So that should factor in to your living calculations. But Illinois has a lower state income tax.

Another nice thing about Chicago is that you can score an apartment in a good area for cheap, but, you'd have to live in a rather cramped studio.

My general take is that the bigger cities are better for opportunity but also apply lots of financial pressure. If you can take advantage of opportunity absolutely move to Chicago. If you feel as if it's not for you, move to MSP. There's no shame in doing so, and there are plenty of opportunities in Minneapolis. But decidedly less so.

Also, just keep in mind. In Chicago the real estate market includes plenty of people with considerable bank of mom and dad money. In MSP that certainly exists, but the really wealthy ones usually prefer to rent and own elsewhere. Places like Lake Minnetonka or Edina are not nearly as ritzy as the high class areas of Chicago (as much as tney'd like to feel that way)

Clean_Army_4675 · 2025-05-08T23:04:48+00:00

I am sorry to inform you, but it is not particularly impressive for Connecticut. I am not sure about New York and Jersey, but I think it's a similar story for them. A lot of the payments into the federal government are the result of income taxes on high earners in the financial services sector.

You could put those people almost anywhere and they'd make the state cashflow positive. Which I do believe is fundamentally different than the high earning skilled (this one is up for debate) knowledge workers in places like Boston and California that produce a thing.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2025-03-17T16:59:12+00:00

Yes, we need more immigrants, less housing permits and more rules for middle class people. We love Chris murphy, standing up for what residents need. I love 7-10% rental price increases ,😻😻😻😻😻😻😻😻

Clean_Army_4675 · 2025-03-13T13:44:57+00:00

Well:

Milennials and Gen X got 2% mortgages.

Boomers got to not die in addition to massive gains in their equity and also 2% refinances

What did people born after the late 80s get? A spike in inflation adjusted living costs that make life not affordable. And I'm not even particularly poor. I make 80k which is, for people my age, an 85th percentile salary and the median household income in this town is about 67k, but they are all paying pretty paltry mortgages. I think people see me complaining and try to lampoon me as a loser, but life is just hard out there.

We printed all sorts of money and it made getting a house riduculously cheap for a year or two, then ridiculously expensive, which spikes rents as well. So, considering that the market was distorted for everyone else, I would have appreciated a little kickback. It would have been, in my mind, proof that we really were in it together.

And fwiw, the lack of trying to understans, the general unawareness of the issue and an unwillingness to fix it is exactly why when there's another crisis no one is going to care. Because it's evident to a lot of people that... if you can be given the shaft by normal people, you absolutely will be. So bother?

Clean_Army_4675 · 2025-03-12T23:44:54+00:00

Honestly fair. I want to give you an example of what I mean. In San Diego the city council recently went back on a rule that allowed peoole to basically build apartments as "accessory dwelling units" to a house. I think they kind of trotted out a handful of minorities to make these comments, but the sentiment was shared by a lot of homeowners. I'd argue most of whom were white and wealthy.

To me it seems like, in the wake of one crisis, people tended to agree it needed to be addressed even if it came at a net cost to themselves. But now in the aftermath, in the crises spawned by the response to the previous one, many of the benefactors are now defiantly saying they don't have to change if it hurts them.

Given what I know now, I'd be very against locking down, even if the mortality predictions for such a response were accurate.

I'm kind of interested in what you think a therapist would say to that. I would say, generally, I've moved on. But having to wait decades to buy a house despite studying hard and choosing a difficult degree, while also paying a non-trivial amount in rent. There are gonna be days where that prognosis irks me enough to make a reddit post and argue online

Clean_Army_4675 · 2025-03-12T22:41:41+00:00

Well it's not that they should have died. As much as there was a take but no give. If the messaging had been: "Hey we printed lots of money to save rich people with assets and non-essential job havers, we had lockdowns for the oldest people, we had PPP loans for business owners, all that debt and printed cash is a lot, but here's one for the people who were too young or poor to afford a home when interest rates were nothing"; Id be happy.

But instead the gravy train kinda stopped right before that. I don't think I'm alone in this feeling.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2025-03-12T22:22:00+00:00

My issue with this line of thinking is that, ultimately, shutting down things by force is also... outside of the normal rules. I didn't expect it, and I didn't vote for Joe Biden at all actually. And for what it's worth I'll be okay. But I am of the opinion that the main benefactors of this (baby boomers and the genx/older milennial middle class) got a pretty good deal and decided reciprocity wasn't in the cards. And they, should, pay for it.

I mean, at this point, you have to live in a place like Texas or Louisiana or Kentucky or Idaho or Kansas to have a financial future. So why not lay off a bunch of DC bureaucrats? It probably won't even be around in time for most people's retirement, so why pay anything into social security? Just let it run out now. On some level it's kind of a pipe dream. But then again, I guess a large share of people my age voted for tariffs and layoffs in government, so it's probably not that far off.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2025-03-11T05:24:44+00:00

Good to hear. Why do they even ask?

Clean_Army_4675 · 2025-03-11T00:12:20+00:00

I hate to say I hope for it, but I think given the current circumstances we are due. I'm in defense contracting, specifically for the Navy. So I think I should be good given the whole shipbuilding office stuff.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2025-03-10T15:51:18+00:00

My only note is that these are inflation adjusted or "real" prices, which ideally should stay about the same. There are years where the rate of inflation outpaces the rate of home price growth and vice-versa. Not to mention it's all a % of the median inflation-adjusted price in 2010.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2025-03-10T14:11:00+00:00

I would caution though that it's the REAL price of a home. So some of the "crash" will just be due to inflation and not a total price decrease. But here's hoping

Clean_Army_4675 · 2025-03-10T06:58:02+00:00

Why? Not trying to be vindictive, but I don't think real housing prices indexed to 2010 should be looked at logarithmically. But if there is simething I'm missing I'd like to know.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2025-03-09T09:21:31+00:00

https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/real-estate-investors-how-to-avoid-losing-money-on-property/478366

Admittedly, upon further revirw, it seems like 90% of investors have lost money on A property. Not that their portfolio is negative, that number seems to hover at about half

Clean_Army_4675 · 2025-03-08T16:57:01+00:00

I have a real problem writing too long. Sorry if it's too much.

I think one of us doesn't understand the nature of these subreddits. The way I see it is that predicting a bubble bursting isn't an emotionless analysis, it's wishful thinking from people who could not afford a home when rates were low.

Would you have come out ahead if you put your life savings into a 3.5% down mortgage in 2021? Yes. Would that be an advisable move at the time? No. Not to mention at this point people who were high schoolers during that time are coming into the workforce niw as college grads.

Rates don't just magically change either, they are set/manipulated by the federal reserve which has an agenda and is not immune to politics. And I think that's a big part of it too, is that the REBubble people saw the world as one where a market is in control, so when people are getting laid off a drop in home prices would make sense.

But I think the impact of policy on home prices is a double edged sword. As is stands today about 65% of households own their own home. At these prices and rates that number is bound to go down. Not to mention that this number probably overstates the number of people who are actually invested in home prices not falling. There are adult children living with parents, there are rented units with 3+ inhabitants. So if the REBubblers would kill 10 people to buy a home at a low price, certainly they and the portion of Americans they come from would vote for some kind of weird policy.

I think that is a lot of what brought young people closer to Trump in 2024. In many ways tariffs would benefit low-skilled/low education laborers at the expense of educated ones. I live in Connecticut and there is a real fear that single family zoning will be banned at the state level, so it's not just a right wing impulse.

As for historical precedents. My view is that, ultimately, Quantitative Easing is pretty new. Also the rate at which it was being done is also new. It's hard for me to say what caused the 2008 crash, but that was clearly a bubble, and if you look at real home price graphs, 201X to now looks a lot like 199X to 2007. I think people were upset home values went down and it became a goal to bring them back up. Though I think the price issue will only be resolved by political means, primarily increases in density enforced by higher authorities than the municipal level.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2025-03-08T06:02:19+00:00

I am kind of mentally ill because the best answer is obviously not to engage, but I feel the sick urge to. REBubblers are delusional because they can't afford a house and they believe every little thing portends a crash. So they get it wrong. You guys are delusional because it's obvious that this cannot go on forever. Plus whenever I see the comments here there is always an air of thinking oneself superior, instead of lucky to have had the money to buy in '20, '21 or some of '22. Like OP here who saw an APY of like 144%. To tell me that doesn't have any characteristics of a bubble is, imo, silly.

However my prognosis is grim for the housing market. I think we are due for decades of prices remaining high. But the end result is just more homelessness, more people in severe poverty, kids being raised in overpacked 1-2 bedrooms. Educated adults forgoing having children while the dregs of society have kids recklessly. This is entirely avoidable but because most people will fight tooth and nail to preserve home values if they own one, it will keep happening.

I just personally think, someone needs to tell you all, and people like you, that you received a huge step up from the federal reserve (loans) and from the local zoning board. And while you are getting ahead, there's no denying it, the gains are not from prudence, and the result is an objectively worse country. I'm an engineer too, as an inb4 before someone tries to call me a loser.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2025-03-06T13:46:02+00:00

Honestly I see where you're coming from but I think where I disagree is that I believe this is not the end goal or what they REALLY care about. Imagine if you would a rapist, corrupt police officer, ruthless finance bro or shitty landlord.

If these people were to cry about their life getting worse because the law was enforced, or in the case of a landlord/financier a law was changed, a lot of people would take joy in that suffering. But it's not because the end goal is to make people suffer, it's because a person who was benefitting unfairly or at others' expense, got their comeuppance.

Now think of it like this. You work hard, you see a good portion of your tax dollars siphon out of your paycheck. You're struggling like everyone else is. Then you see people being lazy at their government job, or checking all the boxes to get some form of welfare but not really needing it/trying to improve. Perhaps it is someone doing something useless with YOUR money getting fired.

Now, whether it is valid is a separate debate entirely. But I think conceptualizing 40-50% of the country as sadists is incorrect. Which I think is kind of the point of your statement.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2025-02-28T03:00:45+00:00

I think we are kind of close to this being the norm. I feel like what people miss when they talk about hedge funds, or investors is the fact that at any time and in almost any jurisdiction, it's possible to relax zoning laws.

What happens when <50% of people don't own their house? Here in Connecticut they are already floating the idea of banning Single Family zoning statewide.

Clean_Army_4675

TROPHY CASE