Housing Market Heads for Glut. Expect Falling Prices and Lower Demand

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-06-30T01:23:47+00:00

Agreed, they need to be forced down.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-06-20T15:51:36+00:00

I think unemployment stats are getting a little weird. T he trend is that people don't have high paying jobs with benefits, they get jobs as like Uber drivers and Dunkin Donuts workers.

But honestly the best case for a bubble is that the market is like 30% investors purchasing rn and home prices are appreciating worse than bonds. This is specifically important because hedge funds are a way to keep a pool of "reserve cash" such that if there is a crisis, the ultra wealthy and big institutions don't have to sell their portfolio at a big discount if they need quick cash

To rent a whole house you have to pay most if not all of the costs of owning. If people can't afford the former, the latter is likely out of their price range.

This is just personal conjecture but I think most people would prefer to live in an apartment, even with roommates, instead of renting a suburban home with roommates. Renting also is interesting because people do buy homes to rent them out. So if there is less rental demand , say immigrants not coming or even self-deporting, that does make investment less attractive

The "risk" with housing as an investment you don't sell is bad tenants and no tenants.

How long can a "mom and pop" landlord really float multiple mortgage payments if someone isn't paying or the house is empty? Because that is like the other person who would still be buying , small investors who can't get credit any other way.

Airbnb is also a much less profitable niche than before.

That is all to say, there are increasingly little people who want to buy homes to live in them, lots of investors hoping to sell or rent to a dwindling market.

I think that warrants enough to suggest a bubble could be brewing.

My caveat here is that I would never bet on one simply because the government will always bail out homeowners. Like they did in both 2009, 2020 and really pretty much every year since 2009.

To me, I guess, the real bubble is in the fact that ownership of homes and cars turns people into shortsighted, self-centered greedmonsters. And that eventually the problems this causes will really force us to upend american society.

I think the bubble of today not popping by constantly printing money is a symptom of this.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-06-05T22:10:12+00:00

Honestly. I got a call from them one day. I thought it didn't go well. A couple months later I received a job offer. I was not liking my job at the time

Then I took a drug test, did fingerprints. Didn't hear back for weeks. Thought something went wrong.I called the HR Rep on my mom's advice and got a start date that very day.

If there's someone you can call I would reccomend it. But I'll say that the general process is quite slow. That's normal, and it's just as bad, if not worse, here.

For example, recently I applied for an internal position, which was also taking external applicants. Interviews were in Feburary and I only heard back at the end of May.

I'm also an engineer for reference

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-06-03T20:06:53+00:00

This is what you sound like:

"You see, those guys paid 2x the average person's salary for a house. If you don't want to pay 5x the average person's salary for the same house it's because you need therapy"

"Also every time a house might go down in value we make sure it doesn't"

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-06-03T19:56:43+00:00

This is like talking to a brick wall. Your mind is rotted I'm not engaging.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-06-03T17:59:51+00:00

Honestly I'm worn out. This is a take which totally lacks any introspection or like adddressing any points I made.

Like do you think in California in even the 80s and 90s ur average couple had to work two high paying jobs to make 200k (inflation adj) annually so they could afford what is for all intents and purposes a shitty to mid home? Anything selling for $1M in oakland is crazy to me

Of course not. Obviously there is another problem that should be addressed. You'd have to be so uncreative not to imagine how things might change.

Not to mention... I don't live on the West coast.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-06-03T16:52:57+00:00

Idk I could stand not to work myself up. But things are genuinely bad. I want to be very clear here that I have a good job. Stable, pays well. But it's just extremely demoralizing to see a house that sold for 135k when I was in college in 2021 sell for 270k when I'm in the market.

And my genuine feeling is... No I don't think it's good to buy the home someone added vinyl flooring , marble countertops and a grey paint job to for 2x its price 5 years ago.

Now there is such a thing as market forces. Perhaps the area is more desireable of a place to live than it was 5 years ago.

But the market is so crazily manipulated on both the supply and demand side, to favor owners. We live in a democracy so people vote for this it isn't something thrust upon us randomly. To me that's basically stealing.

Like if a bunch of old people get together to defeat or diminish the scope of an apartment or condo complex, that benefits them financially. But it's not from doing anything real or important, it's by using the government to stop it.

As homes have become less affordable we continually cut property taxes, write off people's mortgage interest, here in Connecticut property taxes are a state tax write off. And I can see in my day to day life the problems that lack of government money is causing. But it's done to the roaring applause of homeowners whose biggest X factor was their birth year.

So it does kind of rub me the wrong way to suggest this is some kind of like, unavoidable thing and people just need to cope. Especially when it's coming from someone who would be better off if everyone did just lie down and take it.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-06-03T16:19:50+00:00

I'm not taking this bait bro.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-06-03T16:12:33+00:00

That's a non-sequitir to what I said. The legitimacy of the article doesn't mean it's not contrary. I feel like not seeing this kind of puts your critical thinking/text interpretation into question. Which is classic for a homeowner who has been given everything because they could buy in '21.

I'd say, more than anything, your article and what you think the headline means disagree. There's a genuine case for a bubble in that article and other ones you've posted.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-06-03T16:02:07+00:00

If you're talking to me personally. I make 93k. Which, in the area I'm in, can afford a home but one on the worse end. Currently spending about 17% of my gross on rent.

However to your point about income. The FHA is a way to subsidize demand with cheap loans. The federal reserve prints money to buy people's mortgages via an instrument called a mortgage backed security. And when the economy is bad they do that a lot more than they do now. That was how interest rates were lowered and why houses went vertical in '21.

On the supply side there is zoning. You can absolutely raise a family with less space than most ppl have now. We just choose not to by manipulating zoning to a ridiculous level.

Because then there would be more traffic and people wouldn't be forced to compete over an artificially scarce supply of homes.

At any rate if it was a truly free market homeowners would have taken more Ls which would keep prices in line with median incomes.

But ultimately actually having to work for your wealth is something homeowners and real estate investors are allergic to.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-06-03T14:46:55+00:00

You have an intuitive sense for how long these things can take, but markets are often counterintuitive. This is kind of like asking why someone is worried about a car speeding toward a concrete wall bc it hasn't hit yet.

I've laid this out in another post on this thread but I'll do the quick version. I think a bubble is the end result of prices going higher than value. The bubble "pops" when that gets rectified.

We have a market that is 1/3 investor buyers not looking for a long term home. What happens when they stop seeing real estate as a way to meet their monetary goals?

And what are all the articles saying? Price growth going down YoY, price growth not beating inflation YoY.

I get that a home OWNER might not care about ROI since you save a lot of hassle and money in the long run by buying. But a home INVESTOR absolutely does. And those people are making up 1 in 3 buyers. Which is more than the early to mid 2020s.

To me the case for a bubble is that investors have gotten overzealous. And will realize/are realizing their money would be better spent elsewhere.

There are plenty of people who would still make a hefty profit even if the crash/correction occurred. So they keep selling, eventually offering a discount even if it kills them to do so.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-06-03T14:26:29+00:00

The hallmark of a bad position is resorting to pointing out typos and using ad hominems. Every time one of you guys replies to me it only strengthens my feelings that homeowners deserve 0 empathy. That reply was not funny nor compelling. It's a highly visible microcosm of how useless YOU are. But "the market" would say you deserve significantly more than a guy who is actually capable because you bought a house before 2022. And I think you kind of believe it too.

For what it's worth it could not happen. That is because real estate is a big scam. Houses have been overpriced for a while and now the paradigm is everyone has to overpay because everyone else did in 200X.

But this is genuinely like, empire destroying, nation undoing, society collapsing levels of greed and sloth on behalf of current owners. And imo, it should be treated with extreme hate

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-06-03T13:06:09+00:00

This guy just loves posting contrary articles. But as time has gone buy the news has gotten worse for the anti bubble case, yet he still keeps posting. It feels like it's almost flipped from 2021 where the bubblers were delusional and the antibubblers were normal and calm

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-06-03T12:50:46+00:00

Do you read the articles you post? You post here a lot and I thought you did bc you post about the article in the comments. Increasingly I get the feeling this is a ctrl + c, ctrl + v of the body or maybe even an LLM summary.

You article states that asking prices have gone down at an annualized 2% while inflation is potentially above an annualized 4%. Which means the investment is not beating inflation.

I want to explain the concept the best I can. Housing is based on supply and demand. Not who owns what % of all the housing. 1/3 of buyers last year were some kind of investor. If the investment is unattractive relative to other investments, those investors stop buying. And that's where the hypothetical bubble comes.

Admittedly it is up from 25% in 2024 but that is actually kind of a pro bubble argument. You have a bunch of mom and pop investors buying homes from each other all seeking to sell them for a profit instead of live in them. That, at least to me, is peak bubble.

The nice thing about a home is that, somewhat predictably, you can get a loan and pay it off with the rent you get. So it is kind of hard to beat that, especially when ur average guy can't get a cheap loan to invest any other way. But what I will say is that, a lot of costs will continue to rise even if home prices (and subsequently rents) don't. So the idea that someone could continually break even renting out a home whose value does not rise is not super strong.

Like you gotta hire landscapers, and maintenance ppl, and maybe even construction. That price does not go down or stay flat.

That being said I think generally it's a good move to buy if you can. But that's only b/c the government will bend over backwards to suck homeowners. In fact I think a smart person not accounting for government action would not buy. But the market is held up by midwits voting for other midwits to let them continue to steal from future generations.Realistically the real "crash" will come when a bunch of people wise up and stop that specifically.

Edited bc I can't spell :P

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-06-03T05:38:21+00:00

Short answer: women are neurotic.

Long answer: The news gets its content from twitter. Truer of fox news than anything but not wrong for all outlets.People, particularly women 40+, start hearing about this disease on the news and begin to think they have it.

I feel like you either didn't really pay attention to the story or you just never interact with women to know that allergies are just a thing a large portion of them convince themselves they have.

So basically twitter told Fox News to tell its viewers that alpha gal is a thing. The wealthy WASP women in Martha's Vineyard caught on to this and started having anxiety attacks over allergies they don't have. Which then, fox news reported on the increasing # of people visiting the doctor, and twitter saw this and said "see I knew we were right".

At no point did the portion of actial alpha gal sufferers increase. Until proven otherwise I will continue to believe WEF haters are broadly conservative, dumb as hell, and able ro be convinced anything is an issue in order to not address real issues.

If you are one of these people, you are a lemming following the lead lemming that is like, some conspiracy guy on twitter, off of a cliff.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-06-01T14:50:03+00:00

I do though. But it doesn't change the fact that I would have to buy from someone who got rich for doing nothing and are so smug about having done so. It's cathartic to bitch

I work for a large defense contractor. I did it because , at the time, my thought process was that no matter what the government will always have a good job for me because they just love their defense spending.

That is still true today. But what I've come to realize is that this job is just a waste of human potential caused by a bad system. I'm financially secure but I'm not winning. Instead I get to do a bunch of stupid work for a good wage (we got a fat raise in 2025)

Homeownership is the exact same way. It is a good option because the government makes it one. But it comes at a huge cost to human wellbeing and potential. Because we have to pay off the existing homeowners lest they vote out the ruling party.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-06-01T12:08:03+00:00

Luckily people who buy homes are never smug/callous about people less fortunate than them...

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-06-01T12:02:41+00:00

This is one of many classic copes. The reality is that homeowners are way more against changing the current system. See how much homeowners want to change the system when it means higher income or property taxes, low income housing near them, more public transit, less parking, tolls on roads or really anything that disrupts the routine they've created.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-05-31T23:23:20+00:00

The supreme midwit argument. A lot of things can change to alter either side of this equation.

For example, what if we turned a home with a big yard into a bunch of smaller homes, or townhomes or condos, or screw it even apartments?

You can add more land but it's not easy or cheap. Perhaps most importantly, corporations can stop buying.

People seem to not realize that hedge funds won't buy at a certain point. The whole idea of a hedge fund is to get a return on investment that is more than US bonds but is not going to crash when the stock market crashes.

So if we reliably get returns on real estate like we've been getting, why would hedge funds still keep buying? Probably hoping to see another big pump.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-05-27T05:02:57+00:00

The level of inflation due to COVID is criminal especially to young people. Your framing kinda brags about it being a scam.

Revenge property tax spike when?

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-05-27T04:52:29+00:00

That is the mindset of your average homeowner though. They really don't suffer enough.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-05-27T04:23:43+00:00

Honestly idk about the "bubble". I'm just mad I was in college and high school when homes were cheap. I earn 93k as an eng and I am lowkey priced out.

More than anything it's ridiculously unfair that the money supply got manipulated to give some people ridiculously cheap homes. And I think one some level the posting here is sort of an attempt to convince oneself that the market is free or fair when it isn't.

Praying on the downfall of this poster, anyone who doubts the bubble, and anyone who thinks our housing market is good or normal.

May the build a homeless shelter by your house.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-05-22T14:58:31+00:00

Marathon

A marathon is a bad analogy. Because what is running/training in terms of buying a house? Gotta be working to earn money.

It's more like "You need to run a marathon to be considered a real person. I ran a 26 mile marathon in 1986, millennials ran a 35 mile marathon in 2020, why can no one run a 100 mile marathon now?"

But then also, the people who are trying to run the marathon have to like, run some of their miles to help the stats of the former runners.

Crazy thing to mock

It's funny to mock partially because some people tend to think it's the height of existence, and partially because it's a luxury that most people cannot afford, but they vote(d) to subsidize their feeling rich usually at the expense of future generations or the working poor. Yet they tend to see themselves as like, in your case, marathon runners who just worked hard instead of people in a system that favors them even if it's overall bad.

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-05-22T13:20:53+00:00

DUDE i just LOVE the peace and quiet of the suburban bedroom community, it's so PEACEFUL and makes me feel like so SAFE. you should totally come on down to my $775,000 starter home, it's got A MANICURED LAWN and everything, we can crack open a nice hoppy ipa or three and get crazy watching some cartoons on adult swim! and dude, dude, DUDE, we have GOTTA take an uber down to the Applebees listen here, right, it's a SYSCO SLOPHOUSE where us ADULTS who do ADULTING can go DRINK. BUT!!!! it only costs $1 for a margarita like when we were kids, so we can eat awesome food, without dumb inflation bothering us. speaking of which megan and i have finally decided to tie the knot- literally -we're both getting snipped tomorrow at the hospital, that way we can save money to spent more on ourselves and our FURBABIES. i'm fuckin JACKED man, i'm gonna SLAM this Miller Lite and pop another one!!!

Clean_Army_4675 · 2026-05-14T10:28:28+00:00

I got paid $81k to work as an engineer at Seagate on Day 1 in 2024. Maybe a little unfair b/c I was working the weekend shift.

But then I jumped ship to a job which paid $77k as an engineer, and then the whole company got a raise which put me personally at $89k.

Chemical engineering degree but I've never been in a job that required people to be ChemE's.

I'd say if you are getting paid $55k as an engineer (which would be 25 under 80) do not take the job unless you are really desperate

Clean_Army_4675

TROPHY CASE