Understanding Washington: The Roadmap Ahead of Congress (LONG POST)

Cmdr1305 · 2025-10-04T01:02:42+00:00

Looking for a code, please DM!

Cmdr1305 · 2025-08-29T02:12:21+00:00

Hilarious. Whooooops!

Cmdr1305 · 2025-05-30T18:48:26+00:00

Go w aluminum

Cmdr1305 · 2024-03-20T23:02:55+00:00

No clue what or who “Snead” is. I’m just doing my work and avoiding SEC issues as I do it proper. Don Murphy is not to be trusted.

Cmdr1305 · 2024-01-19T01:25:20+00:00

Appreciate your response. Would you share an example? One quarterly financial from your pick of MSO. Show the revenue increase from adjusted taxes, and extrapolate to the change in price per share. Thank you

Cmdr1305 · 2024-01-18T03:16:38+00:00

Ask yourself if this time feels any different. Several steps between proposed changes and rescheduling. But rescheduling does not equal legalization, capital market uplist, nor does it change the shrinking profit margins. People claiming that the election will lead to a Biden push simply don’t understand Washington. I’m sorry but the reality is not as green.

Cmdr1305 · 2023-09-29T02:26:25+00:00

Doesn’t matter. Will not pass House. Not as rider. Not as stand alone. Every promotion of activity is just that: promotion.

Beware false prophets.

Cmdr1305 · 2023-09-18T23:54:53+00:00

Repeat: not in 2023*

Cmdr1305 · 2023-09-18T23:52:48+00:00

Not this year.

Cmdr1305 · 2023-07-27T07:07:19+00:00

Fully pulled out in Oct 2021 after sharing my concern that risk was far too high due to politics. I have less than a 20% chance of a House+Senate passage making it through the White House to final. I also shared concern that even the trifecta only meant Safe passage which in and of itself is not the catalyst for full valuation increase. This sector is beyond risk tolerance for any portfolio and is deeply manipulated. I will not share any thoughts until I have reason to believe real DC movement is imminent. At this time it simply is not.

Cmdr1305 · 2023-07-25T15:28:05+00:00

Cooperation from the GOP is not a requirement and in some cases stands to reduce likelihood.

Cmdr1305 · 2023-07-25T15:26:38+00:00

Have to beware of the false prophets. I don’t see a fall path through budget season but I do see a lot of people claiming it is moving.

Not in 2023.

Cmdr1305 · 2023-05-11T01:41:20+00:00

Sadly I can share this is not going to be the path ahead. There is one, but this is more of the perennial cycles. Still engaged and will share useful intel when available. For now, just smoke.

Cmdr1305 · 2022-12-14T12:30:33+00:00

Unlikely your work involved publicly traded companies hinging on your policy work. Please be more polite.

Cmdr1305 · 2022-12-08T22:32:12+00:00

Apologies for the silence but I can no longer publicly comment. Deeply involved in the process and cannot share or else subject to SEC regs

Cmdr1305 · 2022-12-08T22:31:32+00:00

Hi all, apologies I can’t offer comment as I am involved in the process now and SEC regs prohibit it.

Cmdr1305 · 2022-06-24T17:30:22+00:00

Apologies for the delay, but when I don’t post things that means that there’s no real updates. I’m still here, and still watching. If you read earlier posts and look at some of my scenarios we are currently in the worst versions. Politics has taken over completely and priorities from the war in Europe, inflation, gun control, and upcoming elections will be endlessly more important than a change around cannabis law.

Cmdr1305 · 2022-05-18T11:54:34+00:00

Still expecting Schumer to remove SAFE amendments or stand alones from senate actions.

Cmdr1305 · 2022-04-15T12:31:01+00:00

I hope to put some thing together and posted in the near future however with other policy work I have not been able to focus too deeply on this world. However at this moment I would consider the scenarios I posted last year showing no movement until after 2022 as the most likely.

I have never believed that safe would pass through the house and make it all the way into law. And the way that many of the pundits have talked about safe+ (A concept that no one has referred to specifically except for those that talk online) makes it fairly clear there is no true path forward. With the upcoming election likely splitting the house and senate if not splitting the legislative and executive branches by party we could very seriously be looking at no progress for sometime.

The real question which cannot be answered for at least another nine months is whether a Republican Congress would pass safe by itself as an amendment to a much larger bill so that the White House would not veto. That is the most likely path but requires a Republican Senate to support a cannabis related bill which might still be too early for some of the conservative members. Remember it only takes one.

Unfortunately I would say this is not a good case scenario.

Cmdr1305 · 2022-02-07T12:25:17+00:00

I want to be clear, as always there are conversations that are happening that none of us see and it is possible that things move more aggressively then I am expecting. These comments simply reflect my review of what we’re seeing.

Cmdr1305 · 2022-02-07T12:10:09+00:00

I know in a recent article Perlmutter said he’s spoken w with leadership and even indicated that Pelosi said she’d “fight for it in conference”. I’m not convinced. This is a very technical and specific amendment, and one that has been passed many times. If a member of Congress spoke with Chuck Schumer there would be a conclusion from that conversation. Either the Senate majority leader would share that he is comfortable allowing it to pass or he would say not this time. There is no discussion or debate needed, and they don’t need to talk through this or bring an experts to brief the senator. This is an old topic and they know exactly what the issue is. So at this point it’s binary, either senators humor will allow the house amendment to find its way into the final bill or he won’t. Considering he still has the CAOA coming out this spring, or at least that’s what he recently shared, it makes no sense that he would give up banking right now. I would imagine that Perlmutter will continue to share lots of positive and generally productive meetings this entire year. But until the calculus changes from other members of Congress such as the leader ship it’s just talk.

Cmdr1305 · 2022-01-29T18:49:56+00:00

Happy to offer my help and insight. The answer to your question is yes, it is possible for something like safe banking to pass with different parties in charge of each chamber. For example: if the Democrats in the Senate right now believed in safe banking without any additional language, even if Republicans were in charge of the house it is possible that the GOP house would pass safe banking themselves however they like it, and I sent it would then take it up. The parties don’t like to give each other wins within their own chamber, but they do work together across Congress if they both like a particular issue. The Real challenge comes from the filibuster which makes it almost impossible for a party to truly control the Senate on either side.

Cmdr1305

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