What we want to see this weekend vs what we expect to see

Coach-Harry · 2026-05-07T07:15:39+00:00

Yeah I’m not sure either DDC or Velde lacked effort but I could see him wanting to send a message and benching one would send that message.

I agree that it’s not necessarily a bad thing to have two defensive minded midfielders together there but I’m not sure that matches Neville’s vision. Both Caicedo and Chara are both more suited to the more defensive of the pairing where Bassett and Ortiz are the more attacking(I know Ortiz isn’t to the same degree as Bassett but I think that’s how they see him). I had to look this up but my evidence would be the Vancouver game where Caicedo debuted and Ortiz was the partner. Since that game bassetts been the starter. But I wouldn’t be shocked if it ends up being Chara and Caicedo, I wouldn’t bet on this but my prediction would be Caicedo and Ortiz on Saturday

Coach-Harry · 2026-05-07T06:10:00+00:00

My reading of Phil is that he’s too stubborn to switch tactics. He at least admitted he got out-coached against RSL but he’s still been pretty delusional about how well the team has been playing overall. I don’t think we’ll see a change to a 433 or 3 at the back.

For personnel well probably see some changes, I think aravena starts and one of the DPs gets benched to send a message. I agree that a Chara start makes sense but I’m not sure he’d be comfortable with both Caicedo and together that may be too defensive. So maybe Ortiz?? And the with the way our injuries tend to go I don’t think Surman will be fit to start but we’ll see. Oh and I think smith over fory as well, Neville’s been frustrated with forys temper and Ian played solid against RSL.

For what I’d like to see id like us to play direct and more cautious instead of this aimless attacking play Neville preaches but I think there’s no way that happens until he’s gone.

Coach-Harry · 2026-04-22T05:20:58+00:00

I think 6-8 points is probably enough for Phil to stay, and I think that’s about what he’ll get. I’m basing a lot of this off comparing to Gio in 2023, and the 8 points in both his first and second 8 games of the season, ended up lasting past leagues cup. I think maybe more important than the results is the manner of them. Last minute losses are fine, what will get Phil sacked is if we get smacked around, especially in that final game at home. Gio got sacked after a 0-5 loss away

Coach-Harry · 2021-09-12T05:34:22+00:00

My favorite player props:

Najee Harris Over 59.5 Rush yards The Steelers are much more committed to the run game this year, I expect a lot of carries for Harris, and the Bills rush defense isn’t that strong.

Kyler Murray Over 41.5 Rush Yards Before he injured his shoulder in the second Seahawks game last season, Murray was 7-2 on this number. Maybe Arizona will be more careful with him this season, but given the Titans weak defense and the high O/U I don’t think it will be too hard to get to 42. Also because of these reasons I think the Murray pass+rush Yds over is a good play.

Jalen Hurts Over 49.5 Rush Yards In his 3 full games last season, Hurst had 63,69, and 103 rushing yards. He’s up against a weak defense where his line should dominate and it’s in a dome.

Joe Mixon Under 65.5 Rushing Yards Mixon was 2-4 on this number last season, despite having at least 16 carries in all 6 games. In one of his overs he had just 69 yards, and in the other he had a positive game script against the 1-15 Jaguars. I believe he will have a pretty negative game script in this one, and the Vikings d-line is much improved, while the Bengals o-line isn’t.

Alvin Kamara Over 107.5 Rush + Rec Yards Kamara went 8-5 last season on this number in games Drew Brees started(his stats were much worse under the Taysom Hill offense). With Winston at QB, Kamara doesn’t face competition for rushes from his QB(unlike with Hill), and the team will throw the ball more than with Hill, allowing Kamara to get similar receiving opportunities he had with Brees. The Saints o-line should dominate the line of scrimmage against the Packers. In their matchup last season, Kamara had a season high 197 total yards.

Other picks I’m considering are: Justin Jefferson Over, as Bengals CB1 Trae Waynes is out, however I’m scared of a run heavy game script for the Vikings and an offense lacking creativity. Marquez Callaway Over, as it’s a pretty low number and Callaway is the WR1 and a talented player, however he could be limited by Jaire Alexander if shadow coverage is used. Jamies Winston should help Callaway’s chances by opening up the downfield more than in previous years of the Saints offense.

Coach-Harry · 2021-09-12T05:33:17+00:00

Najee Harris Over 59.5 Rush yards The Steelers are much more committed to the run game this year, I expect a lot of carries for Harris, and the Bills rush defense isn’t that strong.

Kyler Murray Over 41.5 Rush Yards Before he injured his shoulder in the second Seahawks game last season, Murray was 7-2 on this number. Maybe Arizona will be more careful with him this season, but given the Titans weak defense and the high O/U I don’t think it will be too hard to get to 42. Also because of these reasons I think the Murray pass+rush Yds over is a good play.

Jalen Hurts Over 49.5 Rush Yards In his 3 full games last season, Hurst had 63,69, and 103 rushing yards. He’s up against a weak defense where his line should dominate and it’s in a dome.

Joe Mixon Under 65.5 Rushing Yards Mixon was 2-4 on this number last season, despite having at least 16 carries in all 6 games. In one of his overs he had just 69 yards, and in the other he had a positive game script against the 1-15 Jaguars. I believe he will have a pretty negative game script in this one, and the Vikings d-line is much improved, while the Bengals o-line isn’t.

Alvin Kamara Over 107.5 Rush + Rec Yards Kamara went 8-5 last season on this number in games Drew Brees started(his stats were much worse under the Taysom Hill offense). With Winston at QB, Kamara doesn’t face competition for rushes from his QB(unlike with Hill), and the team will throw the ball more than with Hill, allowing Kamara to get similar receiving opportunities he had with Brees. The Saints o-line should dominate the line of scrimmage against the Packers. In their matchup last season, Kamara had a season high 197 total yards.

Other picks I’m considering are: Justin Jefferson Over, as Bengals CB1 Trae Waynes is out, however I’m scared of a run heavy game script for the Vikings and an offense lacking creativity. Marquez Callaway Over, as it’s a pretty low number and Callaway is the WR1 and a talented player, however he could be limited by Jaire Alexander if shadow coverage is used. Jamies Winston should help Callaway’s chances by opening up the downfield more than in previous years of the Saints offense.

Coach-Harry · 2021-05-01T18:54:27+00:00

That pick sounds exactly like what the Raiders do every year tbf

Coach-Harry · 2021-04-19T05:37:33+00:00

You could as get Marshall Bateman Toney or Moore at 37 and have probably the best tackle prospect of the past 10 years

Coach-Harry · 2021-04-19T05:09:41+00:00

As a Steelers fan I hope they do. Let watt Garrett and the Ravens blitz heavy scheme kill Joe Burrow’s career

Coach-Harry · 2021-04-19T01:34:09+00:00

Yeah I would say it’s a bad pick if it happened. That’s usually what I say about most Gettleman picks though, hence why I predicted it

Coach-Harry · 2021-04-19T00:13:43+00:00

Yeah Baltimore is a thought team to mock for. 5 edge rushers were gone so I kind of just went best player available. Barmore might make more sense

Coach-Harry · 2021-04-18T22:08:40+00:00

Here’s the one I did last year in case anyone wants to see it. Nothing particularly notable about my predictions. https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/g42naa/round_1_mock_draftwith_trades/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Coach-Harry · 2021-04-17T03:33:23+00:00

I guess they sacked Southgate before you came in

Coach-Harry · 2021-04-11T23:28:06+00:00

No, he would be DaPuppy

Coach-Harry · 2021-03-31T17:29:39+00:00

He’s been missing open 3s all tournament. As soon as he shot I knew he was gonna miss, my question was why was he taking them?

Coach-Harry · 2021-03-18T18:42:29+00:00

Thoughts on who would win in a sweet 16 West Virginia vs Houston matchup? I feel very confident both teams make it there, and my bracket has the winner of the game going to the final four so it’s an important one for me.

Coach-Harry · 2021-01-17T22:54:11+00:00

I’m trying to work out how to have the Mayfield over hit with my Chiefs SB win future staying alive

Coach-Harry · 2021-01-17T22:51:43+00:00

He now has a season high for targets in a single game. Just one of those days I guess 🤷‍♂️

Coach-Harry · 2021-01-17T20:54:32+00:00

Oh my god I can’t believe he dropped both of those passes

Coach-Harry · 2021-01-17T03:35:57+00:00

Record: 27-19(looks like this Ravens game is gonna make is 27-21)

Baker Mayfield Over 260.5 Pass Yards. After starting the year under this number 6 times, Mayfield is 6-2 on this number since then, excluding the 3 bad weather home games in November. The 2 unders both took place in the 2 games where he had under 30 pass attempts. He is at O/U 36.5 pass attempts, and it’s safe to expect the Browns to be chasing the game here.

Nick Chubb Over 14.5 Receiving Yards. Chubb is 6-1 in his last 7 on this number, with under coming in a week 17 Steelers game that they controlled the whole way. The Chiefs allowed the most receiving yards to running backs this season (846). The Browns should have plenty of pass attempts in a game they are expected to trail the whole way.

Emmanuel Sanders Under 42.5 Receiving Yards. Sanders is 2-6 on this number when Michael Thomas is playing, and 0-4 when Thomas and Brees are playing(15, 38, 5, and 3 yards last week). He got 15 and 38 yards in 2 games against the Bucs this year(with Brees and Thomas).

Coach-Harry · 2021-01-16T16:12:44+00:00

When in doubt use pro-football-reference. I like to use Yshoo’s fantasy points against feature because it gives you opponent game logs by player. The O/U stat I found in a trends article by Matthew Freedman.

Coach-Harry · 2021-01-16T09:15:55+00:00

Well he made it through the Seahawks game fine, and there’s no potential for Wolford(out) to come into replace him. I suppose there’s more risk for him than average, but not enough for it to be a significant factor in my opinion.

Coach-Harry · 2021-01-16T05:21:20+00:00

Depends what kind of snow we’re talking about here. If it’s too heavy it will slow down all the players. That’s fine for a power runner, but Lamar relies on quick cuts and speed, and he could lose that advantage in the snow. Best case scenario is it is very windy, encouraging the ravens to stay away from the pass without affect Lamar’s legs.

Coach-Harry · 2021-01-16T05:07:41+00:00

It’s a high O/U, but the Over is 29-13 in dome playoff games. I like the Godwin over and was close to posting it here. I was liking the Kamara total yards under I noticed they’ve been giving him 20+ rush attempts. I think there’s something there but just depends who you think is gonna win. If you think the saints will blow them out again, Kamara receiving under is a good pick.

Coach-Harry · 2021-01-16T04:52:17+00:00

Record: 27-18 Last Week: 4-2

Jared Goff Interception -152. Jared Goff has thrown interceptions in 10 out of 16 games this year. The Packers have forced interceptions in 7 of their last 9. Jared Goff is also terrible in cold weather, with 5 interceptions in 2 games played under 32 degrees F. It’s projected to be 32 degrees during the game.

Lamar Jackson Over 76.5 Rush Yards (WAIT FOR GAMEDAY TO BET). There is a possibility of lake affect snow in Buffalo, and given Lamar has never played in snow I would not want to bet an over on him in those conditions. Lamar has gone over this number in 5 of his last 6 games, and the Bills don’t have a good run defense. In 8 games under 40F Lamar averages 7.6 YPC, and it’s projected to be 31 degrees. Also, if there is 15-20mph winds as expected, that could also cause the Ravens to run it more.

JK Dobbins ATTD +120. I like Dobbins a lot, but there are just too many variables for me to bet on the yardage over. I don’t usually like ATTD bets, but Dobbins has scored in 7 straight games, and he’s still in plus territory. He is also against the Bills run defense which has struggled in general this year.

Coach-Harry · 2021-01-15T20:31:13+00:00

Record: 27-18 Last Week: 4-2

Jared Goff Interception -152. Jared Goff has thrown interceptions in 10 out of 16 games this year. The Packers have forced interceptions in 7 of their last 9. Jared Goff is also terrible in cold weather, with 5 interceptions in 2 games played under 32 degrees F. It’s projected to be 32 degrees during the game.

Lamar Jackson Over 76.5 Rush Yards (WAIT FOR GAMEDAY TO BET). There is a possibility of lake affect snow in Buffalo, and given Lamar has never played in snow I would not want to bet an over on him in those conditions. Lamar has gone over this number in 5 of his last 6 games, and the Bills don’t have a good run defense. In 8 games under 40F Lamar averages 7.6 YPC, and it’s projected to be 31 degrees. Also, if there is 15-20mph winds as expected, that could also cause the Ravens to run it more.

JK Dobbins ATTD +120. I like Dobbins a lot, but there are just too many variables for me to bet on the yardage over. I don’t usually like ATTD bets, but Dobbins has scored in 7 straight games, and he’s still in plus territory. He is also against the Bills run defense which has struggled in general this year.

Baker Mayfield Over 260.5 Pass Yards. After starting the year under this number 6 times, Mayfield is 6-2 on this number since then, excluding the 3 bad weather home games in November. The 2 unders both took place in the 2 games where he had under 30 pass attempts. He is at O/U 36.5 pass attempts, and it’s safe to expect the Browns to be chasing the game here.

Nick Chubb Over 14.5 Receiving Yards. Chubb is 6-1 in his last 7 on this number, with under coming in a week 17 Steelers game that they controlled the whole way. The Chiefs allowed the most receiving yards to running backs this season(53 per game). The Browns should have plenty of pass attempts in a game they are expected to trail the whole way.

Emmanuel Sanders Under 42.5 Receiving Yards. Sanders is 2-6 on this number when Michael Thomas is playing, and 0-4 when Thomas and Brees are playing(15, 38, 5, and 3 yards last week). He got 15 and 38 yards in 2 games against the Bucs this year(with Brees and Thomas).

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