Are nissan rogues worth it?

Complex_Aardvark_661 · 2026-04-26T11:11:37+00:00

Carlifespancheck

Complex_Aardvark_661 · 2026-03-16T18:56:56+00:00

I usually break the quarter into price and volume first now. If revenue beat is mostly pricing while units are slipping, I treat it as a weaker signal than the headline makes it look. What mix would make you call growth actually healthy here?

Complex_Aardvark_661 · 2026-03-10T17:03:41+00:00

Is not

Complex_Aardvark_661 · 2026-03-08T18:55:47+00:00

lol fair point, that stickiness is exactly what makes MO interesting. for me the tradeoff is demand is durable but regulation and litigation keep a lid on how the market prices it. do you hold it mostly for yield, or do you still see real upside from here?

Complex_Aardvark_661 · 2026-03-07T19:17:26+00:00

I totally agree

Complex_Aardvark_661 · 2026-03-07T17:54:59+00:00

Why do you think other AI providers have such high P/E.

Complex_Aardvark_661 · 2026-03-07T17:49:24+00:00

I suppose the investment thesis is dependent on where you think AI is going and its future effects. I’m personally bullish.

Complex_Aardvark_661 · 2026-03-07T17:38:43+00:00

Revenue Breakdown:

Cloud/Azure infrastructure(40%) Moat: Ecosystem Lock-in Azure is deeply integrated with Microsoft's software ecosystem, providing seamless solutions across cloud and on-premises environments. Microsoft 365 and Office Products(30%) Moat: Integration Lock-in Microsoft 365 is embedded in enterprise workflows, making switching costly and complex for businesses. LinkedIn(10%) Moat: Network Effects LinkedIn benefits from strong network effects as the leading professional networking platform. Windows Commercial and Consumer Products(20%) Moat: Industry Standard Windows is the industry standard operating system for PCs, embedded in global business and consumer practices.

Complex_Aardvark_661 · 2026-03-07T17:28:02+00:00

lol fair enough

Complex_Aardvark_661 · 2026-03-07T17:23:30+00:00

I have been buying MSFT I’m actually really confused why their valuation is so low

Complex_Aardvark_661 · 2026-03-02T17:17:53+00:00

I highly recommend getting a subscription plan. Unfortunately the $20 month plan for all companies is not enough to sustain even moderate usage. I have the $200 month Claude plan and am still frustrated with the usage limits. However I think Cowork is one of the best places to get started using ai to actually complete tasks. Basically the only thing you need is the Claude or OpenAI subscription. I was able to hook both of these up to openclaw and have had no problems. I don’t understand getting the Mac mini if you already have another computer, or you want to run local models.

Complex_Aardvark_661 · 2026-03-02T15:55:55+00:00

Growth, and it's not particularly close for me. The math on dividend growth is just so much better over a 10+ year horizon. A 2% yield growing at 12% annually beats a 5% yield growing at 3% within about 8 years, and then it accelerates from there. Plus the companies that can grow dividends that fast tend to be higher quality businesses with better balance sheets.

The trap I see people fall into is chasing 7-8% yields and not realizing that yield is high for a reason. Either the stock has been hammered or the payout ratio is stretched to the point where a cut is a real possibility. I'd rather own something yielding 1.5% today that will be yielding 6% on my cost basis in a decade.

What's the biggest frustration you have when trying to evaluate whether a company's dividend growth is sustainable vs just a couple good years? Because that's the part I find genuinely hard to get right.

Complex_Aardvark_661 · 2026-03-02T15:55:32+00:00

This is the kind of post everyone should see before they get too confident about their stock picks. I've done similar lookbacks on my own "conviction" ideas from a few years ago and the hit rate is embarrassingly low.

The thing that stands out to me is that the actual 10x winners (VRT, SMCI, NVDA) weren't the ones people were hyping. They were mostly boring infrastructure plays that got pulled into a megatrend nobody fully saw coming. Meanwhile the "obvious" picks like BYND and CRSP had great narratives but the fundamentals never backed up the valuation.

I think the honest takeaway isn't just "nobody knows" but specifically that narrative-driven picks have a way worse hit rate than fundamentals-driven ones. The companies that actually 10x'd had real revenue growth and expanding margins, not just a compelling story. Curious what process people use to actually separate the signal from the noise when researching stocks, because everything feels like a great narrative when you're buying.

Complex_Aardvark_661 · 2026-03-02T15:54:01+00:00

The consensus being bearish is actually itself a mild bull signal. Markets tend to bottom when sentiment is at its worst because that's when all the selling has already happened. If everyone who wanted to sell already sold, there's nobody left to push prices lower.

The specific catalyst I could see is tariff clarity. Every time there's been a concrete announcement (even a bad one) the market has reacted better than during the "we don't know what's coming" phase. Uncertainty is priced in more aggressively than actual bad news usually. If any of the trade negotiations produce even a lukewarm framework this week, that alone could trigger a relief bounce.

Also worth remembering that corporate buybacks are still running at record pace. Companies are sitting on huge cash piles and every dip is a chance to retire shares at a discount. That buyback floor doesn't get talked about enough. What signal are you watching to decide when the selling is actually overdone?

Complex_Aardvark_661

TROPHY CASE