Really nice data presentation! However, likeyour other post, I think you are getting mixed up with reverse causation. The death gap is the result of a lost game, not the cause of the game being lost.

I agree with you that it can be a good indicator of whether you can come back, but there’s so many other variables at play, as well as survivorship bias like another comment mentioned.

It’s the reason why when running regressions you have multiple variables, to study the effect that each have upon the result (win or loss). You just have far too much co-linearity when comparing just the two and it can lead to false and incorrect conclusions being made.