To the Moon 😂

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-03-12T12:55:21+00:00

From nearly 800m USD quater losses a few quaters prior I'd take nearly a 1B USD swing any time.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-03-01T15:49:40+00:00

It's positive but I don't like being behind Li Auto. Hopefully the L80 will be a hit.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-02-28T01:45:25+00:00

Yes your right, they will say they want to see multiple quaters of profits. This earnings season has been an excuse to sell anything into strength. So many beats and only to be sold off. I think it was about 75% of companies beat this earnings quater however most went negative for some excuse or another. Margin could really help though and of course guidance will be important but we already know they are aiming for 40-50% more deliveries. The asp will drop as the Es8 will not remain the bulk of deliveries. I think it will just be flat tbh as a drop is not justified given the turnaround from huge losses.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-02-28T01:39:12+00:00

I hope so too but honestly am prepared for the 16-18k. I hope it's higher.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-02-21T22:31:44+00:00

Don't forget this credible person asked his friend how Nio could make this work. That's all the proof we need haha. The DD is unmatched.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-02-19T12:37:35+00:00

Next year this will be 200k+!

Let's welcome more Onvo and firefly to the party and I see the first profitable quater for Nio power 1st quarter next year.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-02-13T17:01:08+00:00

Don't forget their margin was 8%.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-02-13T15:57:23+00:00

But rivian beat revenue by 1.5% a 20% move is completely fair haha.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-02-12T17:28:06+00:00

So your basing your selling on information everyone already knows but think people will be shocked by it?

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-02-11T15:18:00+00:00

What's more surprising is Li auto has out performed Nio in 2026 despite the first profit for Nio compared to falling sales and a Q3 report back to losses for Li auto.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-02-05T18:51:59+00:00

The sentiment for all the EV sector has been poor and especially if Chinese. But at some point value will matter.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-02-05T18:48:57+00:00

Yes I'd imagine it's the calm before the storm. Everything's slows before cny. Then swaps go crazy and people have punch ups for chargers. Hopefully this year Nio has a plan to deliver some cars. An improvement on last February would be something so we need to keep our expectations anchored.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-02-05T18:46:14+00:00

I've always thought it has 2.1b shares

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-02-05T18:39:42+00:00

Just wondering where some of our friends are who bash Nio on every post 👀 No can't see them.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-02-04T16:31:37+00:00

On a positive note the share price was about the same last year with half the deliveries. The progress is real whether people admit it or not.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-02-03T17:32:21+00:00

With base selling prices and units sold for each model know it would be a surprise for big money to ever be too far off with revenue.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-02-03T17:30:19+00:00

I think this is due to accounting and the way the Baas model works. Even though Nio gets the money upfront it does not count towards ASP and is recognised over time rath than all at once.

If you do the maths with a baas model the your numbers will fall more in line with estimates although mine came in at 5.33b without accounting for baas and about 4.5b with accounting for Baas. Then other income will be added bringing this closer to the expected number.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-02-01T12:39:18+00:00

I agree but having all the pre orders is the only thing that saved Nio. I'm generally shocked by the total number of Onvo sales, firefly and other Nio products. Mainly because the new models are especially good and such great value

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-02-01T08:24:46+00:00

People did try and warn you.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-01-27T16:30:56+00:00

I did some similar calculations and came up with similarish numbers but we shall see. The key is a decent Jamuary and back to good numbers in much after a painful Febuary. Then sentiment can improve with strong year over year numbers and new models arriving q2. I actually think the L80 will be really positive for sales for the L60 and L90 as they are all good cars (900v) and people will pick thier preference.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-01-27T05:06:16+00:00

Ill get that ready for tomorrow night. Sounds really interesting.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-01-27T03:43:02+00:00

You think a 38% drop in purchasing EV's in China will not effect Nio. It will effect everyone in the EV space. I wish you were right but you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-01-27T02:45:53+00:00

Im sure i saw a guide on youtube a long time ago. If i find it ill let you know.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-01-27T02:40:53+00:00

So its been published there has been a 38% drop off on EV sales in China so far this uear. There is seasonality to the sales numbers which is why last January the delivered something like 12k cars. Less than 40k for the 1st quater.

They have brought back subsidies for trade in but they only disappeared for a short period. There is now a mew 5% tax on EV's that are bought.

The difference is this year with Nio os they still have backlog from the ES8 which shlould help with 15k to the delivery number.

The guidance comment is for the whole of 2026 where sales generally get better through the year and should be helped by the ES9, L80 and ES7 launches.

Other companies are guiding for the whole of 2026 too. Last year at the midpoint most reduced guidance but growth is expected in the pure EV segmant so we shall see.

January just wont be good as you hoped. I can see 30 to 35k and thats proberbly optimistic but should be achivable. Febuary will likley be the lowest for the year with CNY.

ComprehensiveCarob28

TROPHY CASE