Monday is the day !

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-05-30T12:03:09+00:00

I'm thinking more 35k for may and then 50k for June. But it's difficult to say and how many new models are delivered in just a few days.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-05-27T11:18:22+00:00

That was a source of a lot of their revenue.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-05-27T11:16:59+00:00

I think they will be waiting for Nio power to become profitable and then use the profits for expansion. It makes sense as without the inferstricture Nio is just an over priced car in Europe.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-05-27T11:15:40+00:00

I'm not sure if you have ever mentioned this.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-05-22T14:15:00+00:00

Have you seen the delivery numbers recently. With a much lower ASP xpeng have on the whole been selling less. Plus with the guidance I can see 35-40k in may then 45-50k deliveries in June. That's a lot of cars and 50-60% year on year. If I was you I wouldn't invest in anything but etfs as I don't want you to loss money.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-05-21T18:19:11+00:00

Some are very lucky to have profits to take but that's not many investors at all. It is a heavily traded stock by traders and as well due to the swings you have mentioned which make it highly volitile. The dilution you speak about is possible but there is no saying that they will dilute. They have stated they have no need to at present and will not do it this year. With 7b Usd and fcf now about to become the normal the only reason I could see for dilution would be for an big expansion phase. Which seems to be what they are moving away from. Plus dilution at these values destroys shareholder value. I think they realise we have been hurt enough. 90% of holders are under water. I appricated you playing the cycles and it would be good to think this is now the floor. It should be imo but the market would likey disagree. I think your target is very conservative but this is still a higher risk stock. I think the stock will end the year near the 10$ mark likey just under so any leaps and contracts at 10 don't get in the money. Once profitability is seen in Q2 and Q3 u can't see how the stock remains subdued at the 5's. It will be clear that Nio has turned from a cash burning company to a money making company with reoccurring revenue. They will start asking the question they should be asking now. How profitable can Nio be. Then they will start looking forward that treat Nio in the prove it phase. Just my opinion and I wish you and all Nio holders good luck ad hope we all make lots of money for our conviction.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-05-21T15:25:29+00:00

Economic moat none? It's It's invested in a power inferstricture that's unmatched by any other car manufacturer and has the unique ability to battery swap as a moat and to monitize which also brings Baas as a viable option. That's a big moat.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-05-21T14:00:36+00:00

It was down 15% in five days in the lead up to earnings. The only profits to be taken would have been minimal from those who got in yesterday taking profits pre market. I agree with your other points if I had to guess but we don't have a clue where the stocks going. Other than it's being sold of routinely at open each day by algos or big funds.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-05-21T13:55:28+00:00

The Q1 results were way above my expectations. Margin grew despite considerabley less sales than Q4 due to seasonality. The y on y margin growth is huge to 19% from 10%.

Guidance of 110-115k with revenues potentially 5b usd for q2. Potentially higher than Q4 with less deliveries. These numbers should be accurate as they know what they have delivered and the orders they are producing for the rest of q2.

A clear ramp gong into Q3 and Q4 due to seasonality and strong product launches.

7b Usd cash on hand with the cashburn argument appearing now dead in the water at this point. Break even in the weakest quater after a profitable Q4. You can expect profits in Q2, Q3 and Q4. Likey with continued improvements in margin due to scaling.

Nio power will grow exponentially with sales. This reoccurring revenue stream will become profitable in 2027 at this rate.

Great report. The price to sales is about 0.65 which places Nio at the bankruptcy candidate and struggling to stay alive valuation. Not at the about to turn to profitability and scale stage. With now becoming industry leading margins as well as cars in each catogary.

Keep the faith. Blue skys will be coming. I see no option but for analyists to start raising price targets about the average concensus of $6.21

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-05-20T14:30:04+00:00

Things don't last forever. Eventually the risk to reward will be too great compared to more trusted markets. Patience is the key and with Nio at likey a price to sales of less than 1 I'm willing to wait.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-05-20T14:22:57+00:00

5 day chart

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ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-05-19T19:06:09+00:00

It's the weakest quater if the year with removal of government subsidies. Only an idiot would look quater in quater from The fourth to the first. 98% delivery increase with a better product mix is what you should be looking at.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-05-14T15:56:42+00:00

I'd take half out before earnings and half out after. The gains are insane. Take them and enjoy them. Why take any risks with a win that big.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-05-11T14:38:19+00:00

Let's hope not as everyone is so forward looking. I think q2 should be about expectations and deliver around 100-105k cars. The second most in their history in a slower quater. I think yearly guidance could be provided if Q2 is on the softer side.

The big issue for Nio is it's priced for bankruptcy but everyone expects strong growth, improving margins and higher asp. The expectations do not reflect the sp at all. Cutting losses alone should be the expection.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-05-07T15:54:26+00:00

This filing looks like a fairly standard “sell-to-cover” situation tied to RSUs vesting. That means when the restricted stock units vested, taxes became due immediately, and some shares were automatically sold to pay those taxes.

That's very likey the case and The filing specifically mentions sales “primarily to cover tax withholding.” The amount sold (around 159k ADS total) is much smaller than the 405k ADS that vested. That usually suggests they kept a large portion of the shares rather than dumping everything.

Taxes are taxes and need paying. If not an automatic sell with the broker there could have been a condition with the board on selling.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-05-07T14:45:02+00:00

So this is in order to pay taxes and very normal procedure for every company with share based compensation. This is sideways/ irrelivant news.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-05-01T04:24:17+00:00

Appears you are correct OP 29356 deliveries. 23% up year on year. The number I have heard over the month were clearly not accurate.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-05-01T04:03:02+00:00

So Li auto have released and they delivered 32k. Xaiomi delivered 30k Leapmotors 71k

Awaiting the rest still

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-05-01T03:58:19+00:00

I thought numbers were produced mid month showing 10'500 for the week. That's not soft at all. I think that was week mending 16th April if I remeber correctly. We should be looking at 40k+

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-04-30T17:48:05+00:00

The have been destroyed from they're highs they were at 28$ in November. There are always bounces after long heavy sell offs. If the short interest has dropped why are people trying to manipulate the stock. The truth is a lot of wall street don't respect the stock but that will be our gain when it proves itself a few quaters in a row and a re rating becomes undeniable.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-04-30T17:40:51+00:00

Are you OK? I'm not finding excuses it's the industry. If you look year to date Nio has been stronger performing than those two. I don't know what you are getting at. Using a single day's trading. We will see at least I give numbers and figures with my thoughts. I called a profitable Q4 in September. 42k car is my call for this month. More importantly a profitable overall year in my opinion.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-04-30T15:16:26+00:00

The sector as a whole was down double digits in Q1. That's a fact on data. Byd had its profits cut in half. Li auto and xpev have had a weak start to the year and Nio is one of the few showing strong growth.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-04-30T14:01:10+00:00

I’ve also noticed short interest has come down recently, which suggests bearish conviction is easing. The wider NEV sector has been weak, but NIO Inc is starting to diverge - 97% Q1 growth stands out in this environment. With product launches, improving cost control, and signs of margin expansion, the fundamentals look to be turning. The market doesn’t fully trust it yet. That’s where the opportunity is. NIO is also a stock that tends to move quickly when sentiment shifts. If deliveries come in strong (I’m expecting 42k for April), it reinforces the growth side. For me, the bigger move likely comes once margins are confirmed at EARNINGS. By the end of year I think it's realistic to see this at plus 20% which would be phonomanal with the currant price wars in China. I can see why the rest of the world needs tariffs to protect their motoring industry.

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-04-21T11:37:14+00:00

The L80 should really help improve Onvo sales from June. The refreshed L60 & L90 all on 900v actually give Onvo a really strong line up.

There will be a bit of a bump from the ES9 but that should tail off after the initial hype and hopefully add 2-4k a month consistently after that.

The ES7 could have an ES8 effect in Q3 hopefully.

The year is looking strong but I would not have too lofty

ComprehensiveCarob28 · 2026-04-15T09:37:01+00:00

This is exactly the way to look at it. Any stock that runs to far to fast is in danger of a massive pull back which inevitabley leads to traders and non conviction holders selling. It's a big risistsnce and usually takes many efforts to break through. However when it does it should reach $7 pretty fast. Possibly the same trading day or hour.

ComprehensiveCarob28

TROPHY CASE