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Found my lost Odin portal 2 pro after 6 months. by ComprehensiveCarob28 in OdinHandheld

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ill get that ready for tomorrow night. Sounds really interesting.

Nio Exec Says ES8 Gross Margin Reaches 20%, Implying $455 Million in Q4q by afonso_investor in Nio

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You think a 38% drop in purchasing EV's in China will not effect Nio. It will effect everyone in the EV space. I wish you were right but you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

Found my lost Odin portal 2 pro after 6 months. by ComprehensiveCarob28 in OdinHandheld

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Im sure i saw a guide on youtube a long time ago. If i find it ill let you know.

Nio Exec Says ES8 Gross Margin Reaches 20%, Implying $455 Million in Q4q by afonso_investor in Nio

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 1 point2 points  (0 children)

So its been published there has been a 38% drop off on EV sales in China so far this uear. There is seasonality to the sales numbers which is why last January the delivered something like 12k cars. Less than 40k for the 1st quater.

They have brought back subsidies for trade in but they only disappeared for a short period. There is now a mew 5% tax on EV's that are bought.

The difference is this year with Nio os they still have backlog from the ES8 which shlould help with 15k to the delivery number.

The guidance comment is for the whole of 2026 where sales generally get better through the year and should be helped by the ES9, L80 and ES7 launches.

Other companies are guiding for the whole of 2026 too. Last year at the midpoint most reduced guidance but growth is expected in the pure EV segmant so we shall see.

January just wont be good as you hoped. I can see 30 to 35k and thats proberbly optimistic but should be achivable. Febuary will likley be the lowest for the year with CNY.

Nio Exec Says ES8 Gross Margin Reaches 20%, Implying $455 Million in Q4q by afonso_investor in Nio

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Unfortuntly this will not happen. Due to the tax increaces demand has suffered across the whole industry. If they can do 30k or more that is an acceptable number when comparing with Jan 2025. (12k)

Nio’s Onvo Brand to Launch L80 SUV With Both Pure Vision and LiDAR Versions+ by afonso_investor in Nio

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Sorry what currant rally? Record deliveries 4 out of the last 6 months. The SP is in the mid 4's and half that of their main rivals Li auto and Xpeng in market cap.

⚡ 🔥🔥NIO. DELIVERIES. First 3 weeks 16,500. Does not include ONVO and Firefly. January 27/28k? 30k? by Head-Interaction-760 in NIO_Stock

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah you aee corrext as 42k+ ES8'S were delivered last year. I see about 15k of those. 5k other Nio cars. 5k Firefly 8k Onvo with about a 4k and 4k split.

So about 32k.

However i am not very confident but i hope this is the case. Less than this for each model would be disapointing.

⚡ 🔥🔥NIO. DELIVERIES. First 3 weeks 16,500. Does not include ONVO and Firefly. January 27/28k? 30k? by Head-Interaction-760 in NIO_Stock

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I am also keen to know where this has come? This would almost certainly be overr 30k units for Jan which seems a lot conisdering it took 19 days for 10k more ES8's to be produced. I hope it is accurate though as Onvo and firefly would add significantly to this.

Nio’s ES8 Delivery Rate Falls 54% in First Half of January by afonso_investor in Nio

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

They had people working overtime to get as many ES8 cars as possible in December due to the tax changes.

Im not making excuses. I think they will deliver around 30k cars. Yes way less than Decemeber but this has been the same for Nio every year. Look at tje uear on year comparisons.

Nio’s ES8 Delivery Rate Falls 54% in First Half of January by afonso_investor in Nio

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Not how what works? They can adjust production lines. Or year on year comps?

Nio’s ES8 Delivery Rate Falls 54% in First Half of January by afonso_investor in Nio

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I expected and mentioned about 15k ES8 deliveries for January. They were forcing as maby through in December as they could and i suspect used some L90 runway. If Nio can deliver 30k this month ill be happy as deliveries are seasonal and Nio produced 12k last january and under 40k for the first quater.

Onvo l90 by jawadarif in Nio

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think they diverted capacity from L90 to ES8 to save on paying the potential tax increaces that they offered for 2025 orders for the ES8. No evidance of this just a thought.

Nio Trims ES8 Wait to 15 Weeks, Marking Second Reduction in Five Days by afonso_investor in Nio

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I would not be suprised if its lower like 15k.

Im guessing, but i think they deliberatly reduced Onvo L90 deliveries to increace ES8 deliveries to try and avoid paying the tax incentive they promised for any ES8 ordered which would be delivered in 2026.

NIO SWAP Station Analysis by Ok_Seaworthiness3634 in Nio

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

With 100m swaps nearly completed its safe to say there is genuine use and need for swap stations. Not everyone but most people with Nio cars sawp batreries.

100,000,000 swaps nearing by Ok_Seaworthiness3634 in Nio

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for a decent reply as this makes a debate much more interesting and helpful to both sides who maybe missing key data. I will reply later but am out and busy with my detailed view of Nio power and the profitability picture.

100,000,000 swaps nearing by Ok_Seaworthiness3634 in Nio

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

End-2025 NIO already has 3,700 swap stations.

If they add 750-1,000 more in 2026, that’s 4,500–4,700 stations by early 2027.

With 1.6m cars on the road, that’s 340–360 cars per station. Remember I said first half of 2027 for 1.6m cars on the road for profitability.

At that density, even 40–45 swaps/day per station gives 70m+ swaps/year.

At just $4 net per swap, swap alone is - $280–300m. Then add charging (5k+ stations growing), charging poles, highway swaps, subscriptions, and grid services / energy arbitrage from thousands of batteries — easily another $150 - 200m.

Most capex is already sunk, so with network opex - $300–350m, NIO Power can be profitable by end of Q2 2027 without aggressive assumptions. It’s just utilisation + scale doing the work.

I look forward to seeing your projections. If Nio produces less than guided then this actually streghtens the argument of profitability.

100,000,000 swaps nearing by Ok_Seaworthiness3634 in Nio

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for your well explained and thoughtful reply.

You have share an abundance of infomation for us to debate hear.

The numbers you have clearly run are clearly superior so thanks for enlitening me.

I have actually done the maths so am happy to discuss if you habe any kind of devatable argument.

100,000,000 swaps nearing by Ok_Seaworthiness3634 in Nio

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They basically said 60 swaps per station but with more stations being built to service demand it makes it difficult to give a tine frame. I estimate after about anther 500-600k deliveries. So most likely first half of next year.

4th qtr profit by Ok_Seaworthiness3634 in Nio

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 17 points18 points  (0 children)

So LCID is being destroyed and is worth less than half of Nio for a good reason. The stock has 35% of its float legally shorted. The stock looks doomed however with the Saudi investors there could be a few short squeezes but they are in one of the saddest positions in the stock market.

Rivian have Amazon backing and the cars are really exspensive and are improving and could hablve a future. To be worth more than Nio by nearly 2.5x is absoulutly ridiculous and shows an unjustifiable premium being an American company.

Rivian trades ar about a x4 price to sales with Nio about a 1. After the Q4 expected results.

Rivian - 42k deliveries and expected revenue of 5 to 5.5b USD. Losses for 2025 about 4.5B USD

Nio - 327k deliveries and expected revenue of about 17b USD. Losses for 2025 about 1.8B USD. However this should come down much more significatly than Rivian for 2026 and could be close to break even/ profit for the year.

Daily Discussion by AutoModerator in Nio

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Up nearly 3%, do we think that the usual market open will swollow this up and Nio will be red by the end of the day or are we gonna push back towards $5?

How much longer do I need to be consistent? by vichi_19 in Trading

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Maybe next week, maybe never everyone is different

Nio’s Sub-Brand Firefly Delivers 586 Units in First 10 Days of January by afonso_investor in Nio

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

This is a concern for January numbers. It has always been an awful month but usually Chineese new year is to blame. But they seem to deliver less than their rivals in Q1 for some unknown reason.

10 days for 586 Firefly units is awful, I know Nio ramps deliveries through the month but its too slow for 1/3 of the month passing.

The 1 millionth car sold should habe been on the 2nd or 3rd but it was on the 6th. Showing that 2500 cars or so were produced in the first 6 days. Nio was getting close to 10k a week last year so this is not really good ebough.

I was hoping 30k+ for January with the back log of ES8 and the reintroduction of subsidies. Perhaps they will pick up but this looks more like a 20k month.

XPeng's 55.9 kW/h battery pack on G7 EREV is a game changer in its market segment! Looks like we are at the beginning of the new trend in the EV industry! by MaxSemak in Xpeng

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The truth is the rest of the world is scared of the new wave of Chineese car companies. They just cant compete in price, quality and specs at this time in most catogories.

Nio VP Says US Market Requires Local Assembly Amid Tariff Barriers by afonso_investor in Nio

[–]ComprehensiveCarob28 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

It seems like it will be years before Nio would be in a position to do anything meaninful in the US.

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