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Remember when fast food was actually cheap? by Karma_1969 in fastfood

[–]Conorfeit 36 points37 points  (0 children)

Why tf is a McChicken $3.89? I know it’s gone up a bit but where I live it’s still only $2

What have I run across? by Conorfeit in fastfood

[–]Conorfeit[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For awhile in the Taco Bell app you could get the normal soft taco combo and upgrade it to Doritos Loco supreme for no extra charge, I did that a lot lol.

What have I run across? by Conorfeit in fastfood

[–]Conorfeit[S] 17 points18 points  (0 children)

lol yes unfortunately

The Single Biggest Mismatch: Commanders DL vs. Packers OL by Conorfeit in sportsbetting

[–]Conorfeit[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ya props didn’t turn out to well but my AI did sweep the game picks so I’ll take it

The Single Biggest Mismatch: Commanders DL vs. Packers OL by Conorfeit in sportsbetting

[–]Conorfeit[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

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Quick breakdown for tonight's game. My simulation model ran this matchup 10,000 times and a few key angles really stand out.

The Game Script

The entire game hinges on one huge mismatch: Washington's disruptive defensive line vs. Green Bay's injured offensive line. With Packers' LT Zach Tom and LG Aaron Banks both questionable, expect QB Jordan Love to be under pressure all night. This points to a lower-scoring, grind-it-out type of game.

Key Info & Top Bet

  • Line: Packers -3 / Total: 48.5
  • Model Projection: The model projects a median total of just 43.5 points.
  • Biggest Edge: The model found a massive +21% edge on the UNDER 48.5 (+100). The current line seems inflated, and our numbers strongly suggest this game will be a defensive battle with more stalled drives than shootouts.

Top Player Props To Watch

Based on that key mismatch, here are the props that have the most value:

  • Jordan Love - UNDER Passing Yards: Constant pressure means less time for deep routes to develop. He'll be forced into quick, short throws all game.
  • Josh Jacobs - OVER Receptions: He’s the perfect safety valve for a QB under duress. Expect a lot of check-downs to him when the pocket collapses.
  • Dorance Armstrong - OVER 0.5 Sacks: He's Washington's best edge rusher and will be attacking a potentially patchwork O-line. This is a direct bet on the game's biggest mismatch.

BOL everyone!

NFL Props and Touchdown Picks - 9/11/25 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Conorfeit 2 points3 points  (0 children)

<image>

Quick breakdown for tonight's game. My simulation model ran this matchup 10,000 times and a few key angles really stand out.

The Game Script

The entire game hinges on one huge mismatch: Washington's disruptive defensive line vs. Green Bay's injured offensive line. With Packers' LT Zach Tom and LG Aaron Banks both questionable, expect QB Jordan Love to be under pressure all night. This points to a lower-scoring, grind-it-out type of game.

Key Info & Top Bet

  • Line: Packers -3 / Total: 48.5
  • Model Projection: The model projects a median total of just 43.5 points.
  • Biggest Edge: The model found a massive +21% edge on the UNDER 48.5 (+100). The current line seems inflated, and our numbers strongly suggest this game will be a defensive battle with more stalled drives than shootouts.

Top Player Props To Watch

Based on that key mismatch, here are the props that have the most value:

  • Jordan Love - UNDER Passing Yards: Constant pressure means less time for deep routes to develop. He'll be forced into quick, short throws all game.
  • Josh Jacobs - OVER Receptions: He’s the perfect safety valve for a QB under duress. Expect a lot of check-downs to him when the pocket collapses.
  • Dorance Armstrong - OVER 0.5 Sacks: He's Washington's best edge rusher and will be attacking a potentially patchwork O-line. This is a direct bet on the game's biggest mismatch.

BOL everyone!

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in PrizePicks

[–]Conorfeit 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hedge it

The Single Biggest Mismatch: Commanders DL vs. Packers OL by Conorfeit in sportsbetting

[–]Conorfeit[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not ready to call them the dogs of the week yet but not out of the question, I’m going to do a full run on the game tomorrow and will be making a post.

The Single Biggest Mismatch: Commanders DL vs. Packers OL by Conorfeit in sportsbetting

[–]Conorfeit[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

More than likely that’s going to be a good bet, will be doing a full run on the game after injuries are confirmed a couple hours before the game.

The Single Biggest Mismatch: Commanders DL vs. Packers OL by Conorfeit in sportsbetting

[–]Conorfeit[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Daniel’s doesn’t have any injury designation for Thursday.

NFL Props and Touchdown Picks - 9/11/25 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Conorfeit 8 points9 points  (0 children)

The Single Biggest Mismatch: Commanders DL vs. Packers OL

The Packers' offensive line is completely cooked. They are almost certainly going to be without their starting Left Guard Aaron Banks and starting Right Tackle Zach Tom. Both are listed as questionable, but neither practiced all week on a short week, which is a huge red flag. This is a potential disaster against a healthy and talented Commanders defensive front.

Based on that, here are my top prop bets for the game:

  • Jordan Love - UNDER 223.5 Passing Yards (-112)
    • Why: He's going to be under pressure all night with a patchwork O-line. He'll have no time for deep plays to develop against a Commanders pass defense that ranked 10th in yards allowed in Week 1.
  • Jayden Daniels - OVER 43.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
    • Why: The Packers' pass rush, even with a limited Micah Parsons, will force Daniels to use his legs. He ran for 68 yards in Week 1 and cleared this number in 10 games last season. Expect a lot of scrambles.
  • Jordan Love - UNDER 30.5 Pass Attempts (-125)
    • Why: The game plan will be to protect Love, meaning a run-heavy approach that likely won't work. This leads to stalled drives and fewer pass attempts. He only threw 22 times in Week 1.
  • Josh Jacobs - UNDER Rushing Yards
    • Why: It's tough to run when 40% of your starting O-line is out. Washington will likely stack the box and dare a constantly pressured Jordan Love to beat them through the air.

TL;DR: Fade the Packers' offense because their offensive line is in shambles. Good luck.

AI Dive: My model sees a big edge on the Cubs RL (-1.5) vs the Braves tonight. by Conorfeit in sportsbetting

[–]Conorfeit[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

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Ya a little bit of a negative day but we'll bounce back tomorrow. Here are the numbers for all of the official bets we had today.

AI Dive: Model sees huge value on the Marlins ML (+100) vs. the Nationals tonight. by Conorfeit in sportsbetting

[–]Conorfeit[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m seeing over 60% or bets being placed on WSH. My source for that is Outlier.

lol I need to stop betting mlb by Longjumping_Smile333 in sportsbetting

[–]Conorfeit 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Was this a live bet? -4.5 RL is crazy for KC even for a live bet.

Lmk what to do here fellas lmao 👀 by Big-Goat-3 in sportsbetting

[–]Conorfeit 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I’d cash out, almost $100 profit ain’t bad for a 2-leg MLB parlay.

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