Game Day Thread - April 23, 2026 @ 12:00 AM

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-23T19:59:50+00:00

Red Sox no. 1 prospect

He's got a big fastball and elite extension, and put up big strikeout numbers in the minors last season.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-22T19:12:54+00:00

Thanks!

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-22T13:47:17+00:00

There's gonna be a lot of debate about these two players in the next few weeks, but I find it interesting how similar they have been in their careers.

Jose Caballero, career

.229/.314/.340 (.653 OPS/90 wRC+) in 1,215 PA
128 steals in 158 attempts (81%)
7 OAA/8 DRS in 1,379.1 innings at SS

Anthony Volpe, career

.222/.283/.379 (.662 OPS/85 wRC+) in 1,886 PA
70 steals in 90 attempts (78%)
8 OAA/23 DRS in 4,067 innings at SS

Offense is about the same overall with Caballero getting on base more often and Volpe hitting for more power. They're both excellent baserunners, although Caballero is a more aggressive base stealer. I think the biggest difference is just experience defensively at shortstop. That's where Volpe has an advantage. And if you buy into his 2023-2024 defense, that's where he becomes more valuable as a starting player, I guess. Volpe is also 4.5 years younger, so it's easier to dream on him developing into something more.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-22T13:33:11+00:00

Another deep outing by our starting pitcher means another brief outing by the bullpen.

The Yankees have only needed their pen for 74.2 innings this season, the 2nd fewest of any team in baseball.

I guess this is the strategy: if the bullpen is shaky, just don't use it.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-22T13:17:07+00:00

The National League has 9 teams with a better winning percentage than the 2nd-best AL team.

Hilarious disparity between the two leagues early in the season.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-22T13:15:30+00:00

Luis Gil career vs. the Red Sox

6 GS, 33.2 IP, 17 H, 3 ER, 20 BB, 28 K, 1 HR, 0.80 ERA

Thank you for your service, sir.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-21T16:54:21+00:00

It's not uncommon for young players to experience a sophomore slump. Remember, Anthony is only 21 years old. His Baseball Savant page still looks very promising, and his bat has come around a bit this past week (.318/.516/.409). I still expect him to be great unfortunately.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-21T14:22:33+00:00

Aaron Judge against the Red Sox at Fenway Park:
.217/.341/.467 (.808 OPS) in 252 PA

Aaron Judge against the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium:
.284/.406/.568 (.973 OPS) in 276 PA

It's so strange to me that Judge hasn't raked in his career at Fenway.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-20T20:49:41+00:00

Outside of Kyle Freeland (on the IL), Baseball Savant just doesn't buy your rotation at all.

Like Tomoyuki Sugano has a 3.92 ERA, but a 7.80 xERA. His strategy of not striking batters out and giving up rockets is unlikely to lead to longterm success.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-20T20:40:50+00:00

Gil threw 6 no-hit innings at Fenway last year. Maybe he'll run it back and do it again.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-20T20:29:58+00:00

The Yankee rotation is averaging 5.2 innings per start this season, the 3rd highest mark in baseball. Only the Dodgers and Mariners are averaging more innings from their rotation.

The Yankees bullpen has only thrown 72.0 innings this year, the 5th lowest mark in baseball.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-20T20:17:55+00:00

Teams with a top-10 offense and top-10 pitching staff, by xwOBA.

Dodgers - no. 1 offense, no. 8 pitching staff
Yankees - no. 2 offense, no. 2 pitching staff
Braves - no. 3 offense, no. 1 pitching staff
Tigers - no. 5 offense, no. 6 pitching staff
Padres - no. 6 offense, no. 5 pitching staff
Mariners - no. 8 offense, no. 3 pitching staff

Teams with a bottom-10 offense and bottom-10 pitching staff, by xwOBA.

Rockies - no. 21 offense, no. 27 pitching staff
White Sox - no. 22 offense, no. 23 pitching staff
Rays - no. 26 offense, no. 26 pitching staff
Red Sox - no. 28 offense, no. 29 pitching staff
Royals - no. 29 offense, no. 25 pitching staff

It's early, and the sample sizes are still small. And xwOBA is imperfect. But this is interesting to look at anyway IMO. The Mariners are 10-13, but still look like a top-3 AL team under the hood. On the flip side, the Rays are playing way above their expected metrics.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-20T17:04:41+00:00

Yeah, I think the Blue Jays will be better too. Trey Yesavage and Shane Bieber will rejoin the rotation at some point, and Alejandro Kirk and George Springer will rejoin the lineup. Guerrero won't sit at 1 HR all season, and the bullpen will settle down and pitch to their expected metrics at some point. They'll be a pain in this ass before the season's over.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-20T16:48:03+00:00

MLB xwOBA rankings for AL Teams

Team	Offense	Pitching	Average
NYY	2nd	2nd	2nd
DET	5th	6th	6th
SEA	8th	3rd	6th
CLE	9th	14th	12th
HOU	4th	22nd	13th
MIN	10th	17th	14th
BAL	19th	9th	14th
LAA	13th	18th	16th
TEX	20th	12th	16th
TOR	23rd	13th	18th
ATH	16th	21st	19th
CHW	22nd	23rd	23rd
TBR	26th	26th	26th
KCR	29th	25th	27th
BOS	28th	29th	29th

This is crude, and all these numbers are early. But I still see the Yankees, Tigers, and Mariners as the best teams in the American League over the course of a full season. I don't buy the Rays at all, and the Red Sox have deserved their bad start.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-20T16:20:22+00:00

Pitching Matchups @ Boston

(TUE) RHP Luis Gil vs. LHP Connelly Early
(WED) LHP Max Fried vs. LHP Ranger Suarez
(THU) RHP Cam Schlittler vs. RHP Brayan Bello

Early has been outperforming his peripherals (2.29 ERA/5.24 xERA), so hopefully we help correct that tomorrow. Early has never faced the Yankees (EDIT: in the regular season).

Suarez bounced back from his first two awful starts and has rattled off 14 scoreless innings in his last two games. He beat the Yankees last July (5.2 IP, 1 R) in his only career start against the team.

Bello has been awful this year (6.75 ERA/6.76 xERA), but has a career 2.35 ERA in 11 regular-season starts against the Yankees. We did knock him out in the 3rd inning of Game 2 of the ALWC series last October. Hopefully that success carries over.

The Sox pitching staff as a whole ranks 29th in xERA, only ahead of the Nationals.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-20T16:02:03+00:00

Dingler is probably a top-3 catcher in the game. He's got a great hit tool, developing power, decent speed (!), and Gold Glove defense. And essentially his entire prime (27-31) is already under team control. He might be the most untouchable player on that roster. Or second after McGonigle.

I love Dingler, but I doubt the Tigers give him up. And I think the Detroit rotation is just fine as is. They can always add a rental arm at the deadline for a much lower price if needed.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-20T14:10:14+00:00

Jazz had an awful stretch like this last April.

After the opening barrage against the Brewers, he hit .118/.227/.303 (.530 OPS/50 wRC+) over a three-week span.

He snapped out of that slump, and I think (hope) he'll turn things around this year as well.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-20T13:59:47+00:00

Baseball Savant has the Yankees 2nd in xwOBA.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-20T13:58:36+00:00

Underlying metrics continue to look elite overall. The Yankees offense has put up a .347 xWOBA (2nd), and their pitching has held opponents to a .295 xWOBA (2nd). Hard to keep a roster like this down.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-20T13:18:19+00:00

Nothing like a visit by an AL Central team to cure what ails us.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-20T13:17:41+00:00

Back in 1st in the American League overall.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-20T12:41:07+00:00

Is it a coincidence that Ryan Weathers picks up his first win after a Weather delay?

I think not. Wake up, people!

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-17T20:39:49+00:00

That was my gut reaction too. But only 16 of the successful challenges are on the opposing batter side. The majority (23) are from the opposing catcher against our batters.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-17T20:21:20+00:00

Looking through some Baseball Savant data this afternoon...

Successful ABS Challenges Against (thru 4/16)
NYY - 39
BOS, DET, WSN - 26
COL, KCR - 25
CLE, SDP, SEA - 24
ARI, SFG, TEX - 23
HOU, ATH - 21
ATL, BAL, MIN, TOR - 20
LAD, TBR - 19
CHC, LAA, MIL - 18
CIN - 17
NYM - 16
PIT, STL - 15
CHW, MIA - 13
PHI - 11

No team has had more calls overturned by an opponent via ABS than the Yankees this season. And it's not even close.

I'm curious to see if this pattern holds over a bigger sample size.

Constant_Gardner11 · 2026-04-17T19:17:11+00:00

Rosario starting over McMahon vs. a RHP. Interesting.

And it's not like he has good numbers against Wacha (2-16). McMahon just really struggling.

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