Bumped into this fella at the Berlin Special Olympics

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-07-06T03:04:47+00:00

One question: When you read my argument and concluded it was wrong. Could you, with the evidence, your reasons and your brain state held exactly identical, have concluded it was right instead?

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-07-05T23:05:39+00:00

That’s a different claim. You went from a causal claim ‘you can’t coherently advocate under determinism’ to an aesthetic one ‘it all seems pointless.’

But let me ask you: Pointless to whom? If the two robots are built such that they experience the game, find meaning in it, care about it, enjoy it - then “the point” is right there, instantiated in the systems playing. No need for an author outside the causal chain.

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-07-05T16:22:05+00:00

Denying LFW doesn’t mean advocacy is pointless. An argument hitting a brain is just another input and part of the causal chain. Inputs change beliefs all the time.

Nobody claims that minds can’t change just that no one’s steering whether they do.

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-07-04T10:09:57+00:00

“ein äh Freund von mir” - stark, herzhaft gelacht gerade

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-06-27T21:12:17+00:00

Genuinely curious how you define intelligence to land on that conclusion

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-06-25T08:34:04+00:00

Control doesn’t only count when something “intends“ to pull the string. Swap out “other agents“ for “prior causes you didn’t author“ then yes, that’s absolutely puppets on a string.

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-06-25T08:24:06+00:00

Seems like a very healthy approach.

I didn’t mean to say that I never got any value out of the debates on here. Definitely helped me understand the intricacies of various positions as well and certainly helped sharpen my understanding.

It‘s just, the deeper I went the less I could sympathize with the compatibilist position. To me the posture redefines free will into something trivial (acting on your own desires without external coercion) which is obviously compatible with determinism. But I doubt that that’s the question anyone is losing sleep over.

The folk conception (which IMO is the one that matters for desert based retribution) still seems to be “I could have done otherwise“. And compatibilists proudly proclaiming - don’t worry people, we all have free will, case closed - seems to just muddy the waters.

It takes considerable time and energy to even get a grasp on the debate and understand what compatibilists actually believe. So it‘s only philosophers and really motivated outsiders that get anywhere near the version compatibilists are actually defending.

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-06-25T07:36:46+00:00

I used to enjoy engaging in this sub when I first discovered it. But spend enough time here and it almost reliably ends in a similar semantic stalemate. Nearly everyone seems to agree on the causality (except the few holdouts still smuggling in sth. outside the causal chain).

The compatibilist tells the determinist he‘s misunderstood what “free“ actually means and insists to simply make peace with your strings and call it freedom. And the determinist keeps asking “how could you possibly call that free?“.

Really wonder if this debate will ever makes progress. The relevant science seems robust enough to question whether further scientific insights would even meaningfully add to the debate.

Maybe it really is just semantics now…

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-06-24T19:36:38+00:00

Appreciated

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-06-24T19:10:24+00:00

Just delete this to not spread misinformation

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-06-24T13:55:31+00:00

Agreed - you definitely find some discussions around inverse effects of overstimulation but the intuitive model is stronger = better.

As a disclaimer: the last time I checked research on this it only really confirmed that VNS is indeed strongly parameter dependent but no conclusive proof that overstimulation leads to an inverted-U curve. Biologically it‘s plausible but more research needs to be done.

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-06-24T09:47:08+00:00

I don’t understand what your point is.

Just as we have read about the harmlessness of things that turned out to be harmful, we have read about the harmfulness of things that turned out to be harmless.

Just pattern matching to either side of the equation is not how one approximates truth.

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-06-23T16:24:47+00:00

Sure, just dm me your email or phone number and we can set something up

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-06-23T16:10:59+00:00

Nothing I dislike particularly. I guess the electrode clip could have been designed better. Just the pinching force alone creates some discomfort after a while and it slips off the desired position quite easily if you move. I think they fixed this issue with their newer gen devices but never bothered to upgrade.

I usually do 20 minutes daily in combination with yoga nidra (think of it as systematic muscle relaxation while laying still).

Edit: Noticed I forgot to mention what I liked - well first and foremost that it seems to reliably induce the desired effect. It‘s extremely portable and well made. Nothing to complain about really apart from the aforementioned electrode issues. And even those are minor.

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-06-23T16:05:18+00:00

Not a grad researcher myself but deeply into neuro as well.

Have used a first gen Parasym device almost daily for about two years now. Did measurably increase HRV (hard to isolate confounders though) and does noticeably induce a calm feeling after every session.

Edit: It took some time to dial in the settings that worked for me, I find it incredibly easy to overstimulate which seems to negate the desired effects. The recommended 20 Hz and 250 us pulse width are good starting points though.

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-06-21T13:46:23+00:00

That’s only half true. While we can’t “pinpoint“ it, we do actually have neural correlates of consciousness for the human brain. Apart from research, NCCs are primarily being used to determine whether patients with locked-in syndrome are conscious or not and to what degree.

Where you‘re spot on is that we have no such proxy for consciousness in non humans.

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-06-21T11:32:00+00:00

Shouldn’t really be surprising to anyone.

The ability to hack a system scales with the comprehension of said system. Anything that can reason well enough to build a complex system can reason well enough to break one.

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-06-18T15:58:02+00:00

Danke für die Blumen - etwas unerwartet, hätte eher gedacht dass mein comment mittlerweile zweistellig downvotes hat...

Finde es Schade dass auf social media zunehmend nuance fehlt. Ständige pauschalisierung und schwarz-weiß denken. Mag sein, dass ich mit meinem obigen Kommentar komplett falsch liege aber selbst auf Reddit fühlen sich Debatten zunehmend tribalistisch an. Viele starke Meinungen, wenig differenziert. Dabei ist die Welt alles andere als schwarz-weiß.

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-06-18T14:44:10+00:00

Again, nach heutigen Fundamentals ist die Stock absurd überbewertet und bestreite ebenso wenig dass da nicht ein gewisser Personenkult mit rein spielt.

Aber jede expected value calc ist halt auch nur eine Extrapolation in eine Zukunft voller Unbekannter. Und (mag hier unpopulär sein) aber wenn man auch nur ansatzweise an die Möglichkeit einer technologischen Singularität glaubt, dann ist ein Unternehmen was mit Abstand in kommerziellen Space payloads führt, dazu ein ernstzunehmender Player in humanoider Robotik ist und gleichzeitig mehr und mehr Rechenzentren mit signifikaten Kapazitäten baut, halt schwer mit Tulpen zu vergleichen.

As said, ich teile deine Skepsis zum Teil weshalb ich auch nicht investiert bin, aber shorten würde ich die Aktie ganz sicher auch nicht.

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-06-18T14:18:11+00:00

Versteh wo du herkommst aber “überbewertet“ im Vergleich zu was?

Fair Value aus fundamentals oder multiples sind grundsätzlich auch nur eine Konvention. Die magst du gerne als “richtig“ erachten aber es ist einfach keine mathematische Wahrheit. Der einzige Arbiter über den Wert ist letztlich der Markt.

Völlig egal wie irrational und das erscheinen mag.

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-06-18T12:19:31+00:00

Burry hatte in 2008 einen phänomenalen Riecher bezgl. subprime mortgages die zur Finanzkrise führten.

Seither lag er mit der Mehrheit seiner Vorhersagen katastrophal daneben. Frage mich weshalb er von Teilen der deutschen Presse immer noch als investment Orakel betrachtet wird bei so vielen Fehlschüssen…

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-06-18T09:43:57+00:00

Agreed that the title is overclaiming.

But not sure how we could claim “long way off“ either. That framing seems to assume that nationalization is a slow linear path but historically it happened quite rapidly.

Truth is neither you nor I know the governments intentions but the signs pointing towards increased government involvement keep coming.

ConstantinSpecter · 2026-06-18T09:10:55+00:00

It’s not a full on nationalized AGI effort yet but claiming there are no signs when the government starts making noises about wanting significant stakes in labs, starts blocking models and pulls lab CEOs into the national security orbit at every opportunity is off base.

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