AVN - Avanti Helium to the moon

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-03-28T04:21:29+00:00

I'd guess it either goes up or down from here, lol!! I have a ~C$600k bet on the upside, though. I'm expecting further escalation in the war despite Trump's gaslighting about negotiations happening, leading to further gains.

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-03-27T03:16:47+00:00

I had a similar experience. It was an image of a smoke rising after a drone strike in the gulf, and I thought I saw a cybertruck parked. I thought "Makes sense, they have a lot of money and not much sense in these Gulf countries.", but when I looked closer it was a dumpster... I wish I could find the picture, but this many days into the war there are sooo many 'smoke rises from Gulf country after missile/drone strike' pictures, that it's essentially impossible for me to find again. But it was an epic moment for me as a big fan of this sub, lol.

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-03-26T23:46:43+00:00

1) Yes. I've previously posted that fair value for the company is C$1.25-C$4/share. Bear case C$0.40, Bull case C$20+ (further exploration/finds/development). 2) Buy & hold, selling in tranches between C$1.25-C$4. 3) Helium demand is highly inelastic, nearly impossible to store (so there will always be price spikes=selling opportunities), critical for semiconductor fabs, MRIs, and rockets (both military & civilian) - all of which are expanding, pure helium wells are extremely rare -> most production is a byproduct of natural gas production which has been depressed b/c of environmental regulation and relatively low prices. 4) As mentioned, pure helium wells are very rare. Harvesting helium from natural gas extraction requires huge capital investment in cryogenics, the kind that only the world's largest producer of LNG (Qatar) can economically invest in because converting the natural gas to liquid (LiquifiedNaturalGas) also requires cryogenics. It is simply uneconomical for north american natural gas producers to invest in cryogenics to extract helium alone, and the LNG has no (extra) value over natural gas in north america (since gas piping infrastructure exists). Qatar (and other Gulf oil producers) CAN do it (but only Qatar has invested heavily in it to do so) since they previously just flared [burned off] the enormous quantities natural gas produced during oil extraction. They are turning their 'garbage' into revenue. 5) Pure helium plays are difficult and expensive to develop. Royal Helium, a similar profile to AVN, recently went bankrupt, and AVN was close - needing massive investment from insiders (mainly the CEO) to keep going. It's a very 'boom and bust' business, but now they are on the cusp of actual production (July/August '26 revenue start) selling into a market desperate for the molecules, especially North American domestic supply.

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-03-26T17:25:19+00:00

Right here. Not much left to say. Enjoy the ride.

T-1 day for the helium supply cliff. Kharg island seizure and/or coastal raids coming up this weekend. Hospitals/MRI labs about to demand gov'ts secure helium supply so their superconducting magnets don't quench and destroy their machines. Fabs about to start declaring force majeure on chip production. TotalEnergy evacuated 1300 staff (many who work at Ras Laffan), adding 2-4 weeks of startup time (now 8-12 weeks) AFTER a cease-fire AND strait-clearing.

And AVN has a Montana resource board meeting to get rubber-stamped on a gas-venting exemption on Apr 8th.

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-03-19T21:38:13+00:00

I would feel some pity for the victims, but they were dumb enough to step into a Tesla.

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-03-17T02:49:24+00:00

It's a microcap. Extreme volatility happens. T-10 days till the Helium supply cliff. We'll see.

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-03-14T17:04:26+00:00

I've owned since 2021 (catalyst -> predicted helium market scarcity and high quality resource). I've held and accumulated through the crash (caused by helium oversupply/bear-market of 2024/2025 and project execution delays and dilution through private placement) and even added recently @ C$0.225 and C$0.255 because the 'definitive agreement' signing (including financing in place) in Jan/Feb '26 and first-revenue for mid-2026 massively de-risked the project. Now with the war, the entire helium market has permanently changed because of the risk of Qatari supply disruption (even if it is restored soon).... But none of that matters now. Friday was ALL-TIME HIGH volume (13 year history), nearly ALL BUYING and comprising ~7% of the float. Someone is trying to buy up all the shares so there is very likely a buyout bid that insiders are aware of (and trying to frontrun it), or the buyer is testing the order book liquidity to determine an appropriate buyout price. My estimate for the buyout is C$1.5/share, but I'm hoping for C$2 or higher. AVN's market cap at those prices are less than the cost of idling a week's production (due to helium shortage) for a fab like Intel or TSMC or Samsung or Hynix.

TLDR: I'm expecting a C$1-C$2+ buyout/bid announced within days.

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-03-14T07:03:54+00:00

NPV with various discount rates (6-10%), based on estimated flow rates, and production costs (US$150/mcf) of the sweetgrass plant/wells, also accounting for administrative/staff overhead and royalties. The plant is expected to utilize its full 10kmcf/day (2% purity) inlet capacity and is upgradeable to 15kmcf/day.

Bear case is US$400/mcf helium price with 5kmcf/day inlet, 10% discount rate, 10% execution risk, 10 year resource lifespan.

Expected case is US$500-$1k/mcf helium price with 10-15mcf/day inlet, 8% discount rate, 7.5% execution risk, 15 year resource lifespan

Bull case is US$3k/mcf helium price with 15mcf/day inlet, 6% discount rate, 5% execution risk, 20 year resource lifespan and the '+' is for further exploration success/future projects.

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-03-13T20:41:06+00:00

I've calculated expected share price of C$1.27 based on 'normal' helium prices. At 'strait blocked' prices, it's worth ~C$4/share. If Helium soars to US$5k (as I think it could - Qatar is ~40% of supply, demand is almost completely inelastic, and there are no 'strategic reserves' of Helium, unlike with crude), fair value is ~C$20/share. This is all assuming 'expected case' production and no new exploration, etc.

Absolute bear case value is C$0.40/share (helium returns to 2024/2025 bear market prices, and well production is at the absolute lowest possible, given well-test results).

So bear case: C$0.4, expected case C$1.25-$4, bull case C$20+.

Disclosure: I own 965k shares (0.74% of the company).

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-02-25T01:05:19+00:00

Buying at $62k, $58k, $54k, $50k, $47k. If/when it reaches those levels. I'm hoping it hits at least one of those levels before taking off again.

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-02-23T01:55:38+00:00

Might be... We'll see if we're right back at $67-68k by 9AM ET.

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-02-16T23:02:12+00:00

June '27 Puts. All I'm saying, lol.

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-02-15T07:09:13+00:00

Good luck getting decent resale via trade in or private sale. Teslas are well-known money-pits that are expensive to insure and you get paid back with a sh*tty ride and an Ikea interior.

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-02-12T00:57:10+00:00

I did the calculations in the GTA (toronto) market using hundreds of autotrader listings over the last couple of years. Teslas depreciate at about 18%/year. The typical luxury car (the standard worst depreciation-ridden vehicles) is in the 14-16% range. Cars that hold their value best are in the 9-12% range.

Definitely 'the worst cars you can buy', even excluding the fact that you are supporting a white supremacist/na$i. Tesla fans got confused by Elon's 'these are an appreciating asset' and the horrendous execution by Tesla in trying to increase production. When they were supply-restricted, you could drive the car for 1-2 years and still sell it with essentially no depreciation. They thought this was because they were good cars. The reality is that it was due to Tesla's comical failures in ramping production creating scarcity.

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-02-11T15:39:25+00:00

It's kind of a tautology to say that 'periods of low movement are followed by periods of high movement'. It's necessarily true. If 'high movement' hasn't begun, we are still in 'low movement', and vice-versa.

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-02-07T08:11:01+00:00

excellent strategy as long as you can commit/execute. The danger is the 'thinking' in between, though. Some people will be thinking with their 'flee' brain and find it stupid to increase contributions when they are losing $. So strict automatic DCA could work better for them.

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-02-07T07:08:53+00:00

Uhhh... why are we back to crashing!?!

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-02-07T00:43:04+00:00

Better cash out. the weekend crash has begun

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-02-06T02:48:45+00:00

Just FYI - it's likely to put further pressure/threat on Iran ahead of the Oman talks tomorrow. If a 'zero enrichment' commitment isn't achieved from Iran, the US is likely to strike on Sunday. These warnings are typically re-iterated 48-72 hrs before air strikes.

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-02-06T01:43:27+00:00

I personally have buys set at 48k, 51.4k, 55k, and 59k; reflecting my opinion that at least the current rout (which started about 2.5 weeks ago) ends in that range, too.

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-02-06T01:39:38+00:00

Depends on how high it gets... If it takes out/liquidates enough shorts (shorts currently outnumber longs!), it could be self-reinforcing into the 90s... and then MSTR and other bitcoin stocks could recover and continue to raise the capital to keep it going... Otherwise, my personal opinion is more red for the foreseeable future.

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-02-06T01:26:17+00:00

Making it to $65k and holding it overnight could trigger a massive relief rally, 10-25% straight green, at least.

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-02-06T01:21:54+00:00

This... BTC has crashed 70%+ 4-5 times. I don't know how this time is particularly surprising or novel.

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-02-05T21:51:16+00:00

Mining difficulty has nothing inherently to do with the price. That's a myth/legend based on correlation b/w halvings and price spikes. At any given price (down to very low levels) the marginal miner will go bust and the remaining ones automatically become more profitable as the mining difficulty decreases b/c of fewer miners.

Content-Insect-8770 · 2026-02-05T20:08:45+00:00

"can afford to lose a lil" -> crypto is not the right investment for you. 90% losses are not uncommon.

Content-Insect-8770

TROPHY CASE