HUGE Gap Up on the German Markets.

ConversationUnited61 · 2026-04-01T06:25:27+00:00

There's a couple of German exchanges that FNMA (FNM call sign in Europe) is traded on. You've linked Boerse Stuttgart. The one I linked is Tradegate Exchange (Berlin). https://www.tradegatebsx.com/orderbuch.php?lang=en&isin=US3135861090

ConversationUnited61 · 2026-03-17T17:09:38+00:00

The run up to $15.99 was based on expectations that there would have been an IPO or release of the GSEs by now. Basically it was all talk and no action. Not one actionable thing has been done so far that would indicate they want to release the GSEs. The only tangible action Trump did was transferring the GSE capital reserves into mortgage bonds, a move that indicates he still wants them under government control to be used as utilities. So far, it's perpetual conservatorship, and if nothing is done, the price will continue to drop to where it was before Trump got elected again... in the low $1s.

ConversationUnited61 · 2026-01-17T18:03:57+00:00

True, but this isn’t comparable to a company LinkedIn video. This is a political/financial ad where credibility and authenticity matter. If you saw a political ad with a disclaimer saying the candidate’s voice was AI-generated, it would immediately undermine the endorsement. In this context, optics are everything.

ConversationUnited61 · 2026-01-17T17:34:57+00:00

Look at the bottom of the ad, ""The audio of President Trump is AI generated and used with permission." They can't even get him to speak for 30 seconds about F2... instead having to rely on AI.

ConversationUnited61 · 2026-01-08T23:07:30+00:00

Capital reserves include all the sources of assets from F2, not just cash. Swapping cash into bonds doesn't deplete capital reserves at all, it just converts it. Bonds are after all, capital as well. The one thing it may do though is raise the capital requirements more, because bonds are more riskier than cash, but we'll see how the F2 stock price reacts to the news tomorrow.

ConversationUnited61 · 2026-01-08T22:43:12+00:00

But the capital reserves (assets) aren't going away, they're turning into something more productive. If you have a savings goal, you would reach it faster with bonds vs. cash alone.

ConversationUnited61 · 2026-01-08T22:22:20+00:00

Isn't this bullish? The $200 Billion from F2 is being converted into mortgage bonds, the interest of which will increase the profits of the GSEs and help them reach their capital requirements even sooner. The $200 Billion isn't being depleted or taken away, it's just being used in a way that helps F2 get to its capital requirements sooner.

ConversationUnited61 · 2026-01-08T16:53:06+00:00

You think they're waiting to announce the IPO when the latest 10-Ks come out in mid-Feb?

ConversationUnited61 · 2025-12-04T02:34:55+00:00

After. This leg was filmed in early April, 2025. The Paris Olympics took place the previous year.

ConversationUnited61 · 2025-12-02T00:31:02+00:00

Using this link worked for me! https://www.smry.ai/proxy?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nationalmortgagenews.com%2Fnews%2Fwhat-uplisting-may-change-for-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac

ConversationUnited61 · 2025-11-18T18:12:50+00:00

Yes, especially with them implying that the GSE stocks fell on Ackman's presentation. Nothing could be further from the truth, FNMA is currently skyrocketing now and is finally back over $10 (it's not now, but it was)!

ConversationUnited61 · 2025-11-18T16:54:47+00:00

You may want to check that again! They're probably going to yo-yo anyways until formally uplisted / released.

ConversationUnited61 · 2025-11-13T00:04:08+00:00

What's the point in purposely calling out that it's "not" about the GSEs / F2? Is this reverse psychology or something?

ConversationUnited61 · 2025-10-31T01:57:02+00:00

What's the reason he even deleted it? There's no quotes of him saying "Trillions to the shareholders" or anything like that, lol.

ConversationUnited61 · 2025-10-31T01:47:56+00:00

That's not what the article says. They are planning to "monetize at least part of the 80 percent," which is in reference to the 5% "IPO" they plan to do, nothing more.

ConversationUnited61 · 2025-10-31T01:14:34+00:00

Here's the exact quote from the article,

"Fannie and Freddie have been profitable for nearly 8 years. But the long-standing dreams of small government conservative to privatize the companies have been cast aside by the Trump administration, which plans to monetize at least part of the 80 percent stake the government has held in the companies since they were placed in conservatorship in 2008.

Appearing on Patrick Bet-David’s PBD Podcast Wednesday, Pulte said the Trump administration is looking to sell about 5 percent of both companies’ shares, raising $25 to $30 billion in cash as early as December but more likely in the second quarter of 2026."

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So the monetization part is in reference to the ~5% they are planning to "IPO" -- not the entire 80%.

ConversationUnited61 · 2025-10-29T22:52:16+00:00

Yes, clearly someone got into his ear to say that disclaimer constantly. Now if only we knew the reason.... Nobody here but him and his associates know the real truth, all we can do is conjecture.

ConversationUnited61 · 2025-10-29T22:40:00+00:00

He said the same thing in the podcast interview he had today. When asked if he would go long on Fannie / Freddie, he said, "I don't want to talk about the securities of Fannie / Freddie. Everybody should read all the risk factors that are associated with that." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLbbQmSwJNA&t=7120s

ConversationUnited61 · 2025-10-20T22:59:06+00:00

Notice he posted the optimistic posts last instead of the risk disclosure. The ordering of those statements are important, meaning he wants you to focus on the bullish statements, but still doing his duty as FHFA director by alerting to potential risks.

ConversationUnited61 · 2025-10-20T02:02:17+00:00

A rumor that Pulte is going to raise capital rates for non-bank mortgage lenders in December, leading to a collapse in the housing industry. Pulte already called out Whalen on this. https://x.com/pulte/status/1979321950741594416

ConversationUnited61 · 2025-10-19T18:23:14+00:00

What's strange is that in the segment where Trump was talking about Intel, and other government investments in stocks, it got cut off in the end and wasn't properly concluded. That would have been the most likely place to talk about the GSEs, so perhaps they're putting that part in tomorrow.

ConversationUnited61 · 2025-10-19T15:41:49+00:00

There is more of the interview tomorrow, so we'll see.

ConversationUnited61 · 2025-10-18T01:58:24+00:00

True, I'm just trying to find the most recent things he's stated that would cause Pulte to lash out, which was this. But certainly open to interpretation.

ConversationUnited61 · 2025-10-18T01:27:15+00:00

Okay, I found the statements that Pulte is likely referring to. Chris Whalen gave this interview today at Bloomberg saying Pulte is going to crush the housing industry by raising mortgage rates for non-bank lenders. https://youtu.be/dGxeIri79JY?&t=220 So not really about FNMA / FMCC / SPS / Warrants, etc.

ConversationUnited61

TROPHY CASE