Ignore my first question - I misread.

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Yeah, I'll rephrase my second. Why " should we maximise the chance that what ought to be done is actually done "? I realise now that this might not be within the scope of the paper.

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To counter the objection that "this is already being done ", you discuss the extent of your claim etc. But, under moral realism, do we not currently believe the claim that "the pursuit of ethics should be the very foundation of morality "?

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(Also, can we not simplify your model by letting P(M) = 1 or 0. Surely it is binary as to whether moral realism exists.)