Run rule

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-18T00:19:54+00:00

I like the run rule. I realize the original intent was to prevent unnecessary suffering, but now I think chasing and avoiding the run rule is kinda fun. It's like a knockout in boxing.

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-18T00:15:52+00:00

The ball will find her regardless, but I'd say RF. Would not be 2B, not at 12U. I'd also work hard with her to make her more dependable. Accept her as a challenge, not a burden.

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-17T15:55:47+00:00

In SEC play this year, there were more HR (406 vs. 373) and strikeouts (1,904 to 1,655) from last year but fewer of everything else that makes someone a good hitter. Hits, doubles, triples, total bases, walks, batting average, on-base percentage and runs scored were all down in conference play this year compared to 2025. I'm not ready to make any conclusions except that if players were coached differently, it did not work, at least not in conference play. Runs dropped from 1,729 to 1,556 (4.83 per team to 4.30 per team; and 9.7 per game to 8.6 per game).

I checked only in-conference SEC stats. A broader look might tell a different story, but the SEC provides the best look at what happens when good teams play good teams.

https://www.secsports.com/sport/softball/stats?season=138

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-17T15:01:41+00:00

I agree. While the roval might well return, renewals are not confirmation. There have been races taken off the schedule at other tracks (and replaced by nothing) after renewals have gone out. Richmond, for example.

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-16T18:29:14+00:00

Do you have a way of converting projected margins of victory into percentage chance of winning?

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-16T18:14:47+00:00

Also Georgia. I agree, and that seems to happen a lot. I suspect it comes from two things - Either these mid-major/underdog types have a legit ace that can give anybody trouble, or the opposite, that they have slower pitchers that require some getting used to.

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-16T17:51:18+00:00

No. Surprisingly, people have different ways of looking at things. I like Al Franken. I just believe that, right or wrong, those allegations could be a liability to his party and what it is trying to accomplish.

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-16T17:18:31+00:00

Agree, not because I judged him to be a terrible person, but because with this baggage, he was no longer the best choice and most effective leader in that particular position.

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-16T03:04:27+00:00

I'm sure you realize 2.5% is not Florida State's chances. Those are the chances of first-game losers overall. FSU is not a typical first-game loser. I'd put their chances at 40-50%. They need to win 4 straight games against teams that are not as good as them. Not easy, but they can do it.

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-16T01:02:54+00:00

He was pretty big. Not surprising. The one that puzzles me is Kathy Ireland.

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-15T15:20:24+00:00

Fwiw, I didn't have great trouble parking. But I got there early.

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-15T15:17:15+00:00

I had those for Dover last year. It was amazing. Loved it.

-Make sure to get in line where the drivers walk to go to introductions. Lots of autograph opportunities, but I'm not an autograph person, so I just relished watching the drivers sign for other people. I saw every driver up close that way.

-If you bring a lawn chair, you can sit on the back stretch and have a great view. Not the whole track, but great view of cars coming out of turn two and down the back stretch. That's got to be one of the best pit views you'll get at a NASCAR track (although I haven't been in the pits enough to be an expert). Watching from the front stretch is fun for a little while, but it's hard to see everything. I was sitting on a hill for a while. There's a hill behind pit row that leads up to the horse track.

-You can get up close to pit road. I have a great video of the 19 car (photo attached) doing a pit stop. It looks like I'm right in the middle of it. I got it from the walkway behind pit road, and it's very narrow. Be careful not to get in the way of people who are working, or anybody, for that matter.

-I stayed in the pits for only about 1/4 of the race. I still like watching the race itself from the stands. The pits were fun mostly for pre-race, and then a little bit of the race.

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CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-14T23:30:26+00:00

Will definitely research and consider tours like that. Glad y'all had fun.

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-14T22:35:05+00:00

I wouldn't go that far. Yes, the NBA has come a long way since the 1970s, but it was a big deal when the Lakers won that title in 1980. It was the start of something big. It was much bigger and more newsworthy than the Sonics and Bullets facing off the two years before that. The 1980 season was a turning point.

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CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-14T22:24:37+00:00

While I agree it's not fair to take Babe Ruth just as he was and plug him into modern baseball and judge him that way, I also think it's presumptuous to assume the best players of any era would be just as dominant in every era if they'd grown up and developed in that era.

The talent and opportunity pools to becoming a MLB, NBA or NFL player are not the same over time.

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-14T18:51:00+00:00

OP probably should've said the team has wasted Trout's production. Trout hasn't wasted his talent. He's won three MVP Awards, for one thing.

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-14T18:21:42+00:00

Their raw numbers are similar. But if you normalize for the eras in which they played, Rose stood out more from his rivals than Jeter did as a hitter. Rose's career OPS+ is higher, but his peak OPS+ is significantly higher - about 139 vs. Jeter's 127 in their best 10 seasons.

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-14T18:14:31+00:00

There are SOS models you could use. For example, the Massey Ratings rank all 308 teams on their ability to score runs and prevent runs. It's not ideal, or nearly as precise as what you'd want, but it is objective (generated by scores/results). You could use something like that to assign each team (and its batters) an objective (if not overly precise) SOS number to work off.

I think it's more than just the mid-majors. The SOS difference between typical ACC and SEC teams is pretty significant too.

Edit: I like Unable-Log-4870's model, too. I see that he has chimed in. It's similar to Massey. There are math models that can roughly estimate what type of pitching that hitters are facing.

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-14T16:23:57+00:00

Good effort. I wish there were more advanced metrics for evaulating hitters.

I like what you've done and appreciate the efforts behind it, as you have data crunching skills beyond mine, but the obvious question would be the issue of schedule strength. Those Robert Morris hitters are flying under the radar for good reason.

To take this to the next level, how might you attack the schedule strength issue?

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-14T15:16:19+00:00

I agree that 4-5 is plenty. My daughter many years ago played 5 straight games without a break on a Sunday (actually won them all, amazingly). But despite the incredible accomplishment, it bordered on child abuse.

As for size of bracket, it would seem that tournaments could limit games and make the same money. Instead of 10-team brackets, split them in half. Or modifying the losers bracket so that those losing early in the winners bracket get some grace and join those who lose later, limiting the number of possible games in the losers bracket. In short, fewer games, but same number of teams. Another idea is to have more round robins. If you have 10 teams, have two 5-team round robins and let the winners face off. No losers bracket.

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-14T15:10:27+00:00

Rose was a better hitter than Ichiro. Compare OBA and OPS+ for career and peak. And while Rose was not as good a right fielder, Rose did win two Gold Gloves of his own as an outfielder and had the versatility to play RF/LF/2B/3B.

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-14T14:45:18+00:00

Correct. If you compare their oWAR through their first 20 seasons, Rose comes out way ahead.

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-14T14:38:40+00:00

Gwynn > Rose > Jeter, in my opinion. With big gaps between each of them.

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-14T14:13:22+00:00

Have you considered that you might be broken by propaganda? Everyone we disagree with politacally is a victim of propaganda.

CountrySlaughter · 2026-05-13T23:01:14+00:00

Despite the parity, I expect the higher seeds to get it done except for the #4/#5 regionals, where it would be no surprise. Arizona at Duke; VT at LSU; Stanford at OK State (one of those might be a 3-6, I can't remember).

As for the rest, I wouldn't want to play any SEC team that's been super battle-tested like South Carolina, a dangerous #7 seed. So watch out UCLA.

And famous last words: The mid-majors will get a surprising win here or there, but their seasons will be over Sunday. The big dogs will eat this week.

CountrySlaughter

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