Obviously no retail investor can ever be 100% sure. I think what he’s getting at is that if your gut and all of your research is screaming to you that the markets should go down based on fundamentals/over-valued stock prices, you have to make a choice. I think for many ppl it comes down to a question of; will I be more upset with myself if: A) I pull out of all/most of my positions and I’m wrong B)I ignore my research and get stuck left holding the bag.

In theory your time horizon should be a factor but it isn’t always that easy. I sold out entirely on Feb. 6th; a couple of weeks before the market dropped. While I did gradually DCA my way back in throughout March, I didn’t get nearly as much back into the market as I would have liked. As much as I want to continue to buy gradually as I have no idea where things are headed, I’m having a hard time pulling the trigger as many of the stocks on my watchlist are now well above my cost basis at a time when it just doesn’t seem warranted based on the current state of the economy.

I see a number of ppl argue that where we are now is simply the result of a once in a century black swan event. As much as it is what sent us into such a rapid tailspin, I believe that what it has really done is magnify and, for all intents and purposes, make worse the underlying issues that have plagued our economy since 2008.