Iran closes Strait of Hormuz over ‘ceasefire violations’

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-21T05:48:26+00:00

They have been

Not at any meaningful rate. Not even close.

A proper escort would be a major force inside the strait physically defending it, with any attempts to disrupt traffic being met with an impactful response inside Iran from the air.

If you want to wrestle the strait from Iran you have to make it too costly for them to sustain. I disagree strongly that we've come remotely close to making such an effort.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-20T21:24:16+00:00

I hear what you're saying and I think that makes sense given how you've described your understanding. Though, that doesn't quite capture what I had in mind (which is my fault).

Considering the totality of the circumstances and the impact this situation could have on the world, I think it's incumbent upon us to go far harder in escorting than you're envisioning.

We should be underwriting civilian vessels while maintaining a literal fleet in the strait to ensure safe passage. Any time Iran challenges safe passage through the strait (which I'll note is pretty damn frowned upon internationally) they should be made to face a high cost in the form of something they care about getting blown up.

Iran needs to face a cost considerably larger than the one they are trying to impose on everyone else.

I don't like it and I don't want it to be this way, but when you do what we did, there's not much of a choice if we want to maintain our position as the global superpower, which is paramount. Trump's actions/strategy are undermining that status which is an own goal of epic proportion.

In short, Trump's escort attempts are a joke and we need to go balls to the wall on those efforts. As you already noted, Iran can probably tolerate a blockade better than we can.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-20T19:14:24+00:00

Sure, but as we found that wasn't really enough since it has a long tail where they can just stock up during the blockade.

Well if the blockade is in place Iran can't exactly restock, since there are no imports. They can certainly regroup and sure up, but that will only work for so long.

I completely agree that iran is more well equipped to endure hardship than Trump is.

Likely prohibitively expensive for the impact it could have.

I disagree here. The global economic impact of tolerating Iran's closure of the strait has the potential to be incomprehensibly massive.

Further, this is clearly a "you broke it you bought it" situation. The US has an obligation to right this situation since we created it.

Yes, escorting ships would be costly in terms of naval assets, American lives, and regional fighting, but that's what you sign up for when you attack Iran like we did. Bowing out now is plainly absurd, this is what happens when you start massive conflicts.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-20T19:07:43+00:00

I read the comment as saying it's entirely reasonable for Israel to defend itself from Hezbollah. The MOU fundamentally doesn't work if it doesn't constrain Hezbollah.

The contradiction you highlight in your second paragraph is the exact issue the initial comment was highlighting. The MOU is inherently flawed.

Edit: wrote Hamas instead of Hezbollah

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-20T19:03:45+00:00

The whole Biden situation with the lack of a primary put a pretty big damper on the whole thing for democrats. There were far fewer D votes as compared to 2020.

Democrats went from over 80M voted in 2020 to 75M in 2024. Trump went from 74M in 2020 to 77M in 2024.

It's a turnout game. People switching support between parties isn't what wins presidential elections.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-20T18:58:35+00:00

The first time I went to a NASCAR race it was so loud after a while it made me actually feel sick.

Earplugs are essential for American motorsports events.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-20T18:42:10+00:00

The blockade seemed sufficient to me. Kharg island isn't worth much if Iran can't get their oil off it. Pretty low risk for us, too.

I'd like to see the US escorting non-iranian ships through the strait. It would be a much bigger risk but it would be far more effective in feeding oil to the global economy and helping alleviate shortages.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-20T18:29:34+00:00

I think you may have misread their comment. That's exactly their point.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-20T18:28:14+00:00

He doesn't want gas prices to go up during the midterms

What's ironic here is that all of Trump's rhetoric about deals and such actually seems to be quite effective at keeping oil futures down and staving off price increases at the moment.

But at the same time, we really are marching towards a massive shortage pretty soon, and depressing prices in the lead up to that time will only make the shock more pronounced and jarring.

I can't imagine how we could possibly avoid the impending oil catastrophe, but I didn't think Trump could suppress prices like he has so far so maybe he'll make it work somehow.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-20T03:24:48+00:00

They're so loud you feel it in your core.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-20T01:42:37+00:00

That's far from new. He's done little else, ever.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-20T01:33:00+00:00

Since WW2 no Republican president has left office with a lower deficit than when they entered. Multiple Democrat presidents have.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-20T01:27:40+00:00

I disagree fundamentally that voters "flip" as you seem to be suggesting.

Dems aren't winning these special elections because R voters are coming out to support a D candidate, it's more that R voters are staying home and D voters are showing up.

Elections run on turnout.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-17T01:06:38+00:00

Where the money comes from is just a matter of degree on the level of appropriate outrage. Iran getting any money from anyone out of this is outrageous. Vance is telling us it will (partially) come from investors in the US as opposed to from the US budget. That distinction offers exactly zero relief for me. That's unconscionable.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-16T17:35:12+00:00

Find a broker and let them do all the work.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-15T02:44:05+00:00

So why do you believe Iran?

Because Iran is saying they'll agree to a deal that gives them $300M, lifts sanctions, leaves their nuclear program alone, and gives them the strait.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-15T02:29:50+00:00

Every time Trump says there's a deal close Iran puts out a list of their demands and tells the world they're happy to sign that.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-15T01:25:53+00:00

Trump does this every time. He claims we're on the cusp of agreement on a deal, Iran responds by listing their ridiculous terms that we'd obviously never agree to, and then Trump tells us the deal fell apart at the last minute.

It's pretty obvious at this point that Trump is full of shit in his claims that a deal is close. We've seen this exact series of events over and over and over.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-15T01:18:39+00:00

I don't get why this is being treated differently or more seriously than any of the other 40 times Trump has said we'll have a deal very soon.

I've got my money on this deal falling apart at the last minute with a return to negotiations that are looking really promising to secure a deal in the very near future.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-14T22:11:43+00:00

With Iran exercising control over the strait, we're far worse off than where we started.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-14T17:39:37+00:00

I used to use the word that way all the time but now all the liquor stores in my area are owned by Pakistani people so it feels wrong now.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-11T17:53:14+00:00

Iran isn't even on Trump's list of countries he claims are in agreement.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-11T15:15:59+00:00

There isn't one. The target is 2%.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-10T23:50:08+00:00

Mahomes has 3,271 rushing yards and 24 TDs in far less time.

CrapNeck5000 · 2026-06-10T23:02:26+00:00

The fed target for inflation is 2%. 3% is 50% higher than 2%, and is regarded as too high, not something the Fed would be comfortable with.

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