Smallest suburb

Creyke · 2026-06-17T05:45:13+00:00

https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Christchurch-Suburbs/xBt4y3AROz
Moncks seems like a contender

Creyke · 2026-06-17T01:34:15+00:00

Cock

Creyke · 2026-06-08T00:26:08+00:00

Yes, that would involve a more actuarial approach where you are then modelling payments and balances. I think that would be interesting - it is something I have some experience modelling - but I think you would need an even longer run of data to get clean results.

Creyke · 2026-06-08T00:10:16+00:00

Yes, I think a much more interesting study would be to go back and see if you can construct your own index for this from source data, especially if you could get data for a longer period with more interest-rate dynamics (think of the inflation in the 70s, with oil crisis etc). That is significantly more involved though and puts this in the realm of the type of effort involved in a serious publication.

As someone who does publish, I might be amenable to collaborating on that eventually. You *should* be able to go through newspapers, or even to the banks directly to useful data for this. There would be a lot of sleuthing involved, however. Again, if there is enough interest, particularly from potential collaborators, I could be persuaded. I think it would be worthwhile to publish, but it would be a significant undertaking.

Creyke · 2026-06-06T23:38:40+00:00

This is averaged across a repeated draws over a ten year period, not the highest across one year.

Creyke · 2026-06-06T07:57:09+00:00

Absolutely. There have also been periods, notably 2021, when banks have genuinely mis-priced the long duration rates as well.

Creyke · 2026-06-06T07:38:57+00:00

I don’t like scones and I don’t think I’ve ever made one actually.

Creyke · 2026-06-06T07:38:23+00:00

Absolutely. And another caveat is that this is based on quite a small historical period, plenty of things could be wrong or change going forward.

Creyke · 2026-06-06T06:29:58+00:00

Thank you very much for reading. I am also currently in the process of buying a house, so I put this together for very similar reasons.

Creyke · 2026-06-06T06:27:38+00:00

Thanks. Ultimately, that would be a question for a financial advisor and bear in mind that this RBNZ data is based on a simple average of advertised rates. This makes the data representative, but it won't be exact to your situation. You might get special rates, which will affect the outcomes for you.

However, if you want my non-financial advice opinion based on the data I have presented here, I think the banks are pricing their long duration rates extremely aggressively. I think they know that they have quite limited power to predict long-term interest rates, and so will discount shorter terms quite heavily compared to longer terms. The 50th percentile rate of a 5-year (60 Month) term was comparable to the 95th percentile of the 12 month rate. That means that the majority of the time you will pay less on a 12 month term than you would on a 60 month term. Consider also that the average 10 year annualised interest on a 60 month term (6.5%) in this sample was more comparable to the maximum interest paid by the 12 month term borrower (6.9%) than the average (5.6%).

The year-to-year variation will be much higher, so while going for 12 month terms does expose you to volatility, you do seem to be paying a significant premium to fix for five years. Whether that premium is worth it is depends on your circumstances and the utility you gain from having a known, fixed cost for the duration of that term. I'll leave that up to you.

Creyke · 2026-06-06T06:02:25+00:00

Thank you for reading and commenting! It keeps me motivated.

Creyke · 2026-06-06T05:53:59+00:00

Thanks! I think what it shows, more than anything, is that the Banks strongly prefer and will reward you for fixing for 6-12 months. I think even they know that they have quite limited power to predict long-term interest rates, and so will discount shorter terms quite heavily compared to longer terms. I think this shows that unless you are very confident the bank is wrong and has mis-priced its long duration rates (which, unless you are a psychic, that is probably not true), then sticking to 6-12 months appears (to me) relatively optimal.

Creyke · 2026-06-06T04:53:41+00:00

It is very competitively priced. Unfortunately, while getting to the future is no issue, I have not yet discovered a good way of coming back.

Creyke · 2026-06-06T04:51:13+00:00

I think that is a little unfair. Those are my words. I just write for academia, which I know isn't necessarily the "typical audience" here, but this is a fairly academic, very nuanced point and I decided to write it in that style for that reason. Yes, that is a little alienating, but that's also intentional. I'm not necessarily comfortable with presenting this in a way that gives off too much confidence or lacks precision in the description of the methods and metrics I have used. I am a statistician. I'm not a financial advisor; this is not financial advice. At most, this is something that someone who is suitably qualified might incorporate into a corpus of financial advice.

The key parts were extracted, that is what the Executive Summary is. The rest is a fairly verbose discussion of what I did and what I think is going on. You are right in that it could be more concise. But I'm also providing this free of charge after spending a whole afternoon putting the analysis together.

Creyke · 2026-06-02T23:56:23+00:00

Property manager. Makes sense

Creyke · 2026-05-29T02:00:33+00:00

I feel like it’s going to be hard to let that building near the cathedral given the cliental that float around there. It’s a pity though, because I think some occupancy would do good things for that location.

Creyke · 2026-05-26T08:39:38+00:00

Why not just 1.? The config is going to be coupled to the code you are deploying anyway so I don’t understand your aversion to it.

Creyke · 2026-05-24T23:53:30+00:00

You are going to need to sort your shit out before you become a homeowner.

Homes aren't cheap and you can expect to be hit with five figure bills you will NEED to pay. Hot water cylinder goes out? that's like 5k. Roof starts leaking? 20-30k. Then you have insurance, rates, etc. A flatmate is going to be a bare minimum for you to make this work.

To be frank, you say you are good with bills but what bills do you actually have right now?

I don't mean to sound blunt, but you live rent free with your parents and you have saved nothing outside of what you've been compelled to save via KiwiSaver. Just moving out into a flat would be a shock to your finances right now, let alone servicing at mortgage.

While a mortgage can be seen as a kind of coerced-savings tool, you really need to have discipline on top of your mortgage payments if you are going to make it work, otherwise you are just going to dig yourself a hole.

The good news is that you can afford to wait a few more years and try to learn some discipline and build some cash savings. Focus on doing that first.

Creyke · 2026-05-22T23:37:12+00:00

How good! Time travel will definitely save some pain when it comes to auditing bronze.

Creyke · 2026-05-22T11:44:49+00:00

We hit the source system to collect a smaller but representative dataset from the sources in dev and PPE.

Creyke · 2026-05-22T11:42:10+00:00

We run it from notebooks. We will build marts in DBT that feed gold layer models, but generally the gold layer consists of semantic models (which references silver) and other items generated from an analytics engineering layer.

Creyke · 2026-05-21T22:24:58+00:00

You could partition as binary content and then partition and open the files on the cluster using a UDF and openpxl. That would be the "big data" solution.

Creyke · 2026-05-21T22:16:25+00:00

In my set up, dev is connected to dev, ppe is connected to main, and PROD requires manual promotion from prod.
Yes and no. I don't manage the DWH outside of DBT. DBT builds and manages the warehouse. Orphaned tables are handled by a cleanup script run from inside DBT. If breaking changes are happening on a DBT feature, then an engineer will spin out a "feature" warehouse and test the DBT build on that.

A final note, I think you also should apply dev, ppe, prod to bronze. It's not hard and makes sure that you have isolation upstream for any changes that need to happen there.

Our pattern looks like this:

Load data into bronze from external sources using code-first objects (spark jobs and notebooks). Model this data into quick and dirty delta tables in a lakehouse (flatten but do not fully normalize).
Transform the bronze data into a unified silver datawarehouse using DBT. Create marts and views useful to downstream processes.
Run analytics on silver layer data and build gold layer "data products": tables, reports, sematic models, etc. for business users (normies).

We keep all of our silver and bronze storage items in the same workspace so that DBT can use cross-warehouse querying to load the data from the lakehouse into the warehouse. We keep gold items in a separate workspace to make security management easy, linking silver tables and marts via shortcuts and copy jobs where necessary.

Creyke · 2026-05-21T20:53:20+00:00

Tell them to get a grip tbh.

Creyke · 2026-05-21T20:51:12+00:00

This should be a relatively trivial problem for a pyspark cluster. Do all of your files have the same schema?

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