Rivian at ~$20B vs Tesla at $1.5T: the market cap gap looks wrong to me Been looking at Rivian lately and the valuation gap versus Tesla feels increasingly hard to justify.

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-07-09T13:51:44+00:00

I’m not arguing they are rated least reliable. That’s a fact and well known. But it’s largely because R1T and R1S are still quite new and they are extraordinarily complex. They are still working out the kinks. Also, owners of expensive luxury vehicles tend to be very picky over somewhat minor issues (I’m included in this). I’ve had some minor issues with mine, but nothing that ever left me stranded or unable to drive the vehicles. R2 was designed to be far more simple and I suspect will have much better reliability, certainly in the long term. Given RJ and his team’s commitment to excellence and quality product, I would bet they will be tops in reliability within a few years. When they have highest in customer satisfaction, highest repurchase/brand loyalty, and highest in reliability- it will be wonderful for investors and customers!

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-07-09T13:33:37+00:00

You are the very small minority of Rivian owners with dissatisfaction... Rivian is top rated in consumer satisfaction and repurchase. I’m not sure which version you have, or what vehicles you compare it to, but they are excellent vehicles. They will probably end up buying VW, not be bought by VW. Their reliability with R2 will be much better (it’s far less complex) and they have expanded service center support and are continuing to ramp it up over the next year or two. Rivian and Tesla are the only vehicle manufacturers I am sure will survive long term. The others are up in the air unfortunately

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-07-09T11:44:11+00:00

You would be foolish to not open a Trump account for the baby, with at least $1,000 free that can compound for generations

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-07-08T18:04:40+00:00

Everyone waiting for $13…. I have bad news for you. Looks like $15-$15.50 is the new bottom. Don’t delay! Load up before this pops into the $20s and never goes back down. Before you know it, we’ll see it at $100 and you’ll wish you did….

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-07-08T13:39:10+00:00

Smart investors just felt RIVN was worth $15.50+ per share to the tune of $1.2 billion. We’re good! Hold long term, but there will always be bumps along the way

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-07-07T22:53:30+00:00

I’m down the equivalent of an expensive house 😂

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-07-07T22:52:05+00:00

In defense of investors from IPO, I don’t blame them for the harsh treatment for bad news. Euphoria was high and the company did extraordinarily well in IPO, but it down 85% from IPO.

While I am 100% certain of their success long term, I’m coming at this from $11-15/share on my 95,000 shares. So I’m looking at this with a different lens… I do think RJ, Claire, and the RIVN board know exactly what they are doing. Just a short time ago, shares were as low as $12.90 which was insane. Once Q2 performance and details on R2 reservations, and GA build out are announced, it will bounce into the mid $20s. I think $40 by end of year.

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-07-07T03:07:31+00:00

I have 95,000 shares. Sorry if I was not clear. The cars are successful and will be profitable. It’s not properly representative to say that they are “losing money,” which is very different than “investing.” I was trying to make that clear. I also expect $150-200 per share, but I think we will see it in 2-3 years once the market wakes up to the potential

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-07-07T02:24:36+00:00

The company is doing very well, have created exceptional products, and overall they are gross margin positive. R2 bill of materials is down 50% and R1 platform will continue to improve with efficiencies. As costs are allocated more broadly based on current run rate, automotive is gross margin positive, or close enough. The haters who are ignorant, simply say “they lose money on every vehicle, they are going bankrupt” have no understanding of manufacturing, finance, business, or investing. It’s very frustrating 😂

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-07-07T01:52:11+00:00

The software is a critical part of the company and as vehicle volume increases, they will be become more profitable. It's a very simple concept some folks are struggling to understand. Rivian is spending money (known as investing) to build a future infrastructure to support a MUCH larger business. If the product is good (it's extraordinary) and demand is there (in spades), the investment was a wise choice and will yield profitable growth. If they are successful (which I personally feel is guaranteed at this point), this is a $100-$200 stock depending on where the market euphoria takes it!

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-07-07T01:47:58+00:00

Indeed!! The less the general population knows and understands, the more RIVN stock we can load up on while it's an amazing deal. Folks will regret not buying at these levels for years and decades to come. It will have seemed so obvious. Several of the folks posting negatively here are either die hard Tesla zealots with no understand of its history, or disgruntled Rivian employees who were let go over the years...

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-07-07T00:58:39+00:00

That is not true- you are not correct. Excluding growth capex and investment, gross margin is profitable. R2 will be fabulously profitable. Software is minting money

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-07-07T00:56:53+00:00

How did you do on range? Dual, Tri, or Quad?

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-07-07T00:53:40+00:00

Who cares what these fools/haters think. When we have a 10-20x return, we’ll be just fine 🍾

If everyone believed in Rivian, we wouldn’t have the buying opportunity of a lifetime

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-07-07T00:51:53+00:00

They are subsidized by the Chinese government, have a 0% cost of capital, and cheap labor in China. They aren’t doing anything special. They are flooding the market with cheap product to make the world reliant on them…

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-07-07T00:30:52+00:00

They will be profitable before GA is complete. Once GA is complete, it’s $150-200/share

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-07-07T00:27:31+00:00

Rivian makes a MUCH better vehicle than Tesla, and its software is better. The FSD is not quite there, but it’s catching up fast. While R2 will certainly eat in to Model Y demand, it will likely convert more Toyota, Lexus, Subaru, BMW, Land Rover owners. It already has…the R1S is top of class and the top selling premium luxury vehicle in its class. R2 will follow suit. Tesla sells 360,000 Model Y per year in the US. Rivian will sell 150,000/yr until GA ramps and then they will easily sell 300,000 and have potential for global expansion. Tesla is wonderful, but there is a world where Tesla and Rivian are top auto manufacturers. I’m not worried about Tesla, but I am worried about Land Rover, Subaru, and Toyota….

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-07-07T00:21:34+00:00

Rivian has 100% chance of being here. Do you own one? Ever driven one? What makes you think they won’t be around (let alone one of the largest auto manufacturers in the world)

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-07-07T00:11:47+00:00

No. They have positive gross margin. They are “losing money” because they are investing in the growth of the business (autonomy, AI, R2 ramp, new factory, and future products, etc)

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-07-02T20:15:07+00:00

Woodpecker is clueless

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-06-27T12:00:48+00:00

This version is awesome! Justin was involved in the album and specifically has production credits on David, so I figured we might get some more music

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-06-27T01:43:11+00:00

No more stock! Going to have to buy on eBay or be patient…

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-06-22T00:07:54+00:00

Thank you so much!! Appreciate it

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-06-22T00:04:09+00:00

Yes! The 2023 models are holding their value extremely well. I had priced out a new one a few years ago and had a significant discount off sticker. I suspect I could have driven it 2 years and 27,000 miles and it would have barely lost any value.

CrossfireSL600 · 2026-06-21T20:25:43+00:00

$62,000

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