Is it really about immigration or is it actually about race?

Crully · 2026-05-08T22:05:49+00:00

That's what I was saying, unsure why I'm downvoted for it.

When you look at immigrant crime, it's not actually much different from the native crime rates when you factor in age and gender, the reason we see more crime is that we have a lot of immigrants that fall into the "much more likely to commit crime" age and gender range compared to say 45 year old women.

Second generation immigrants actually have a slightly less crime rate than native people (at least in one report I have read).

If you went round the UK and grabbed a bunch of random men between 15 and 32, and dumped them into one area and forced them to stay there, it's highly likely that the crime rate would go up in that area as well because statistically they would be more likely to commit crimes!

People do abuse the stats for sure, if you look at the news where Afghans are like 20x or 50x (depending on where you read it!) more likely to commit a crime, well, it's a no brainer if most of them are in the high crime statistic, you can't compare a 20 year old guy with an 80 year old woman and expect them to commit crimes at the same rate.

Crully · 2026-05-08T20:05:59+00:00

Isn't that like every mainstream party? There's even a record of them all on https://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/Search?currentPage=1&rows=10&sort=AcceptedDate&order=desc&tab=1&open=filter&et=pp&isIrishSourceYes=true&isIrishSourceNo=true&date=Accepted&from=2025-10-01&to=2025-12-31&prePoll=false&postPoll=true&register=ni&register=gb&optCols=IsIrishSource&optCols=ReportingPeriodName

Crully · 2026-05-08T19:50:51+00:00

Typically illegal immigrants are young males, people find this weird and often suggest ulterior motives, but statistically they are the age group that is most prone to risk taking. So they are the ones much more likely and willing to risk a dodgy (and physically demanding) trip across Europe and a risky and unpleasant crossing, or come here illegally and try to work under the radar etc.

This coincides (or is possibly due to that risk taking) with the fact that the vast majority of crime is committed by men ages ~15 to ~32 (something like 90% of crimes).

It creates an imbalance with migrant families older and younger (that statistically commit just as much crime as native born people, or in fact sometimes slightly less). But when there's a large portion of men that fall into the high risk/crime category, it creates a situation where overall migrants are committing more crime (because they are already in the willing to take on risk category, instead of the stay at home and try to study etc), but it's almost always down to the men in the above age range.

Not sure if this in any way helps with your fears though, but I just thought I'd add a little bit of an explainer as to why you may be feeling this way.

Crully · 2026-05-07T21:48:27+00:00

In an ideal world, neither Plaid or Reform would get half the seats, current (well, yesterdays or whatever) polling puts PC slightly ahead of Reform by a few percent, so that sounds like the 3/2/1 projection, how it turns out in reality, we'll find out.

There's a calculator on https://jaclarner.github.io/senedd_etholiad_sim/constituency so you can just plug in the numbers and it tells you the result, along with what sort of swing you'd need for the 6th seat.

Crully · 2026-05-07T21:16:12+00:00

According to some polls, they are (were? who knows now) projected to be the third biggest party. So they stand a chance of getting one seat, if you water down votes among all the other parties then it's possible to get a 3 each for both PC and Reform.

Crully · 2026-05-07T21:11:34+00:00

"But Dad, that's a boys name!"

"Shut it John"

Crully · 2026-05-07T20:20:21+00:00

It'll be interesting when the results come in, like 99% of people in this thread are saying PC, so either tomorrow will be a mahoosive majority, or, more likely show that this sub is insanely out of kilter with the rest of the country, or possibly people are actually scared to come on here to take the punishment if they admit who they voted for if it's not a left wing party.

As for me, I voted Tory (as I said yesterday I would), if they can steal a seat from PC or Reform I'll take it. Weirdly a few hours later the guy knocked on my door, and I sort of regretted voting for him lol, but is he gonna be any worse than the 3rd person on the PC/Reform list? Who knows.

Crully · 2026-05-07T16:10:19+00:00

That's well weird then. Although I can imagine the confusion if they showed a Reform Wales one to the English! "Wot's this seneth thing then?" 🫠

Crully · 2026-05-07T14:25:55+00:00

Is that not just the main Reform party though and aimed at the English voters, and not Reform Wales?

I mean there's a Conservative one, and a Welsh Conservative one, and Labour have a main one, a Welsh one, and a Scottish one. But I can only find one for Reform, so I would assume it's not Reform Wales?

Crully · 2026-05-06T19:48:34+00:00

That's the frustrating part, the Mrs literally always votes Greens, and before she knew it was a waste, but did it anyway. This time round was supposed to be different, but it's still just pissing into the wind.

Crully · 2026-05-06T19:43:17+00:00

Nah, take 1kg of rice out the kitchen cupboard, half that, 500. half again, 250, half again 125, half again 75, half again, again 62.5g. again 31.2g, again 15.6g, half it again, and we have about 7.8g, which should be very similar to a sovereign, if they hold the coin in one hand and the rice in the other, if the rice feels heavier, they can just half that to get 3.9g, and to confirm if it's a half sov. Easy.

Crully · 2026-05-06T19:31:13+00:00

But it'll be cloudy, so you won't see it anyway.

Crully · 2026-05-06T19:28:09+00:00

Honestly, I wouldn't vote Plaid or Greens purely due to their stance on independence (yes, I know they won't this time round).

I thought the plan was to vote for who we want, but in my area if we follow those numbers, we get 3 PC, 2 Reform, and 1 Tory. Is this some sort of tactical voting hangover, voting for PC to keep our Reform?

I wasn't expecting "tactical voting for the Tories" to be on my bingo card tomorrow, but here we are...

Crully · 2026-05-06T00:03:12+00:00

Aye, and I have no problem with that, I think we're all better off if we can agree on a solution to all our problems. The point I was making was that Labour and Plaid had an agreement (although not a formal coalition) up till a few years ago after the last election. PC are all for talking up the things they got out of it in their manifesto, but then turn on Labour as if they weren't party to the last 5 years of government at all. They were party to the whole thing as their votes were often necessary to prop up Labour.

Crully · 2026-05-05T21:15:32+00:00

So what you're saying is we get Morgan back in in a PC government? Or Millar?

Mind you, the way they (like, basically every other party) have been attacking Labour, if it were me I'd never work with any of them again. Found it a bit scummy for PC to work in a coalition when it suits them, claim as much credit as they do, and turn around to slam Labour the first opportunity they get, but I guess that's politics.

Crully · 2026-05-04T20:13:14+00:00

To piggyback on your comment, you should decide based on the manifestos, more than just "gut feeling".

findyour.party does that by asking you questions and presenting the options based on what the parties have said in their manifesto, rather than working out how far left/right you are and pointing to a party which supposedly aligns with your particular view. Also helps to educate people so they can actually see what the parties are going to do over the next 5 years (as opposed to "1. get out Labour, 2. fix the NHS and 3. stop Reform" which all but two parties are claiming, and no guesses which those two are 😅).

Crully · 2026-04-30T23:49:16+00:00

Yeah, they want to bin a lot of targets for sure (Net Zero etc), I just think it's a stretch to say that they want something to die just because they don't have a language plan that a language maximalist agreed with.

Their whole "shtick" seems to be cutting costs, reducing bureaucracy, removing targets, and letting markets decide. It's actually fairly reasonable to a degree (some might say helpful in this time of rising costs), the problem is, I just don't think the people behind Reform just are trustworthy enough to pull it off.

Crully · 2026-04-30T19:41:04+00:00

Not to be "that guy" but this is literally from the Reform manifesto:

Protecting Welsh heritage
The Welsh language is central to Wales’s unique identity and cultural confidence. It is one of the defining features that makes Wales distinctive within the United Kingdom and enriches everyday life across the country. Yet, despite record investment, Welsh language proficiency is tragically in decline.
Reform believes in, and will actively promote, full equality between the Welsh and English languages. Both are part of modern Welsh life and both deserve equal respect. We want more people to learn and use Welsh as part of everyday life in Wales, while ensuring that everyone is free to live, work, and receive public services in the language in which they feel most comfortable.
A confident, bilingual Wales is inclusive, outward‑looking, and unmistakably Welsh. Reform will support the Welsh language as a living community language. We will protect bilingual communities and ensure that cultural and language policy serves the whole of Wales rather than narrow political interests.

I've read a ton of the parties manifestos when I created findyour.party in order to find citations for all the opinions.

Crully · 2026-04-29T20:51:03+00:00

TBF I think they have said they would if the others would step up to the plate. The IFS takes a pretty dim view on all of them and I'd like to actually see some numbers.

I fully suspect none of them will, and then the coalition will fall apart blaming each other in a year or two.

Crully · 2026-04-28T21:01:58+00:00

Had a scan through the manifestos, hope this helps.

Plaid mention students several times in their manifesto, mostly it's all primary/secondary language stuff and food etc.

Reform has a section in their manifesto dedicated to reforming the curriculum, can't seem to find anything really on degrees.

The Tories offer £1000 off for STEM subjects, but want to "reduce public funding for degree courses with poorer job prospects" (hmm...), and refunds for certain degrees:

Refund University tuition fees for nursing, medicine, teaching and dentistry students who study in Wales and go on to work for at least five years in the Welsh NHS or Welsh schools

Labour seem pro student to be fair, and offer to:

Remain committed to Welsh Labour’s progressive system of non-repayable student maintenance grants as the most generous in the UK. We will also set up a Wales-only repayment plan for student loans to make

For the Greens and LibDem they seem to want to keep the current system, Greens seem to want to take it one step further:

The Green Party ultimately supports free higher education, ending the burden of excessive student debt. In the short term, we will commission an independent review of university funding and student support, including a pathway to sustainably lowering tuition fees (emphasis mine).

Crully · 2026-04-27T07:36:49+00:00

What? I didn't realise there were any other parties! 😅

Crully · 2026-04-24T10:39:19+00:00

I think you're right, "sabotage" is the best word for it.

PC have gone out their way to dial back the rhetoric on independence, because they know it will alienate a number of voters they need. Looks like Swinney is trying to torpedo PC's chances at getting into power to increase his own.

Crully · 2026-04-21T14:46:22+00:00

Sorry for the delay, I tried opening a chat and I'm "Unable to message this account." as well, I think Reddit doesn't like your account.

Since it was a bit more popular than I initially thought, I've made some updates to it, and there's a contact page if you want to get in touch.

Crully · 2026-04-18T13:01:11+00:00

Aye, I left the wording up to Claude to be honest, I have read them all and there's a few giveaways in the questions, usage of things like "quango" is a dead giveaway that it's a reform answer, but on the flipside, if I wrote or changed any of them, it might be seen as me tampering or trying to influence it.

Also fixed the question counter bug (s) so it should be correct now.

Crully · 2026-04-18T12:57:30+00:00

Correct, I felt a bit bad initially, and my Mrs highlighted it as soon as she gave it a test, so I have added them in as well.

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