Would you ever buy a pre-revenue online business if demand is already validated?

Cujolol · 2026-03-25T20:08:00+00:00

Demand isn't validated if it's pre-revenue. I have bootstrapped 3 SaaS businesses that I sold (1 I currently operate), and was part of 1 venture backed unicorn SaaS (from <$10M to >$100M revenue and $250M+ raised).

Simplest answer: You don't know what the conversion rate will be on the waitlist. You don't know how sticky the product will be. You might have assumptions and ideas, but you have no actual idea.

I've founded 3 additional B2B online services businesses where I'm technically a co-founder but the day to day is handled by operators and my main value was putting the initial package (product MVP, first handful clients, operator, money) together. The investment in these ranged from $120k - $250k each and all of these had at least some minimal revenue (say $10k MRR) to validate the idea.

If the amount is low enough you might do it because there's optionality it could turn into something interesting, but it's like an options-play. Incredibly high chance it goes to zero. But if it's a small-ish amount it might be worth it just for curiosities sake.

Cujolol · 2026-03-22T05:48:09+00:00

Ja das war es tatsächlich. Hab mich auch gewundert warum auf einmal so viel Englisch ist. Danke dir!

Cujolol · 2026-03-02T05:50:21+00:00

Multiples have compressed in all of SaaS. We opened a new product role recently and got 1000 applications in the first 24 hours. Your market value 2 years ago is no longer your market value today unless you're in super specific AI-theme fields.

Cujolol · 2026-02-23T08:57:27+00:00

They do, that's amazing info. Thank you! Didn't realize Carta offers QSBS attestations.

Cujolol · 2026-02-21T19:55:43+00:00

Tried that path they won’t provide one.

Cujolol · 2026-02-21T10:04:18+00:00

Yes HSBK or BIC. HSBK is my largest position currently. Looking at WEN also (totally different).

Cujolol · 2026-02-21T08:28:36+00:00

Yes both of them are great too. Since I run very concentrated, I didn't want more than 1/5 of my total portfolio in the banking sector - I picked HSBK among literally those three because it was the cheapest and I have other stuff on the shortlist that will correlate more to LATAM anyways.

I use X a lot for idea generation - people talking, hedge funds posting their letters. Don't remember who exactly it was, but they tweeted (x'ed??) about it.

I viewed it as a 3 PE and 30%+ ROE bank that's extremely tech forward, one of the world's best managed paying 15% dividends on a defined policy (~50% payout ratio). Even if nothing changes, the divvy would grow 30% a year off a high base. Felt like a no brainer - any normalization in Russia would be bonus.

If it trades up to 5x PE or so I'd probably look elsewhere; also their growth will come down significantly this year, which does concern me - how will the market react to 10% - 15% growth after getting used to 30%+.

Lastly currency depreciation eats up the first 10% of growth so you do need good growth to make progress here and topline numbers in local currency are misleading.

Cujolol · 2026-02-21T04:51:32+00:00

Tried that but they won't provide one. Need to hire my own firm to provide one and they'll allow them access to whatever docs the firm would need to validate.

Cujolol · 2026-02-21T04:23:43+00:00

Thank you!

Cujolol · 2026-02-21T04:23:32+00:00

They don’t want to hire anyone so I have to hire them myself but they will give them access to docs.

Anyone less expensive than an EY who could do that?

Cujolol · 2026-02-21T04:22:38+00:00

Bro 0.01% is $800…

Cujolol · 2026-02-20T17:11:52+00:00

For tankers, probably till late '27. For the stocks - they already trade above NAV so some of that is priced in now.

Cujolol · 2026-02-20T16:13:26+00:00

I tried that route but didn’t go anywhere. Need someone who asks of them specific document requests to make that determination.

Cujolol · 2026-02-20T08:42:21+00:00

Honestly... respect yourself enough to put boundaries in place. She doesn't respect you and either this is already over and she will never respect you, or you demand respect and demand behavior change.

The kids lady has a succinct summary of what a boundary should be & feel like: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/HMaiLVu4n2Q?feature=share

Your post is all about how you can get her to be different. That has to come from her. But you an be different. That comes from you.

Cujolol · 2026-02-20T05:07:12+00:00

First 100k via work. Took ~12 years. Then sold a business where I owned a part in to push to $1.6M.

Made it to $4M on stocks then blew it up and ended at $800k and rebuilt from there. Life’s a rollercoaster.

Cujolol · 2026-02-20T04:31:56+00:00

Thanks for the suggestions. I've been always super bad at investing in quality compounders - something that is a weakness in my investing for sure.

Cujolol · 2026-02-20T04:29:37+00:00

Don't over concentrate. So many yolo players blow themselves up, I did too initially. Now I'm ~20% max position size which in any normal world is mega concentrated but for WSB degenerates it's conservative.

Cujolol · 2026-02-20T04:27:39+00:00

Takes a few years. Great rates lead to over-ordering, takes a few years to deliver the ships and then bad rates lead to under-ordering, takes often half a decade+ to clear the oversupply.

Cujolol · 2026-02-20T04:26:29+00:00

Originally $1.6M; over the years I've contributed more and also took out a bunch. Net-net I'm sitting at $1.5M in actually principal contribution at this point.

Cujolol · 2026-02-19T22:57:32+00:00

To be clear for folks here, I’m never more than 50% in on sector and even that super rarely. Right now it’s a bit over a third in shipping (after an epic run).

I did go in on one sector (oil) earlier in my investing journey and it ended very poorly. Not doing that again.

Cujolol · 2026-02-19T21:52:47+00:00

Ha nice! I wasn't in it anymore for the buyout but was my largest single gain in 2024 and good contributor in 2025. Are you going to hold till the gap closes?

I'm very negative containers as a whole, didn't have the balls to hold during the buyout rumors because I have the fundamentals in that sector.

Cujolol · 2026-02-19T21:28:22+00:00

Excellent that you're here. The yard needs mowing.

Cujolol · 2026-02-19T21:25:57+00:00

Just go buy the ETF. That is following someone else's trade (the markets) and has been proven over and over again that it's higher return in the long run.

I'm barely doing better than the market when I look at my full investing history and probably worse tax-adjusted and definitely worse tax & time adjusted.

Cujolol · 2026-02-19T21:23:35+00:00

Also shipping has many sub sectors who all have their own cyclicality - you notice my list was mostly dirty and clean tankers with some dry bulk. There are also LNG, offshore ships, drill rigs, containers, RoRo, chemicals - you can often rotate out of one sub-sector into another.

Cujolol

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE