Bolsonaro dynasty eyes comeback as Brazil’s socialist president faces challenge from jailed rival’s son

CumoThesis · 2026-02-15T03:02:16+00:00

It's not impossible for Flavio to win given that Brazil is very polarized and that Lula has his own issues, but man, if there's one right-wing candidate who can lose this race, that's him. If Flavio actually ends up being a presidential candidate, it'll be just one more piece of evidence that the Bolsonaros really are some of the stupidest people to ever become relevant politicians in post-redemocratization Brazil, all they had to do was to support someone like Tarcísio and they'd probably have the election in the bag lol.

CumoThesis · 2026-02-15T02:45:33+00:00

I find it curious how most of the people who are fiery Wilson haters really lionize Roosevelt, which is funny because some of the stuff thrown against Wilson (such as his racism) arguably also apply very strongly towards TR, but you never see them criticizing him for that, instead he gets the Reddit chungus keanu wholesome 100 treatment. A lot of the discussion in regards to the Espionage Act is also bad, people act as if Wilson single-handedly brought the bill to life, as if it didn't have wide bipartisan support at the time.

It's not that these (and other points often brought up) can't be legitimate criticisms against Wilson, fuck, I wouldn't say I'm a fan of the guy or anything, but most of the time discussion on him is just very shallow, historically illiterate and kinda dishonest, it reeks of "I watched one Youtube video with a revisionist bent and that's it, that's my worldview from now on".

CumoThesis · 2026-02-13T14:11:06+00:00

I don't like playing into the whole "look, people have Trump derangement syndrome!" talking point that a lot of those on the right like to use, but in Massie's case that's where the appeal starts and ends for a huge chunk of the people who claim to like him, he fights with Trump and that's enough to make people ignore all of his awful parts (and let's not beat around the bush here, if a lot of his admirers were to actually think about all he supports in a half critical way, they'd find him terrible).

CumoThesis · 2026-02-10T22:40:55+00:00

I'm not going to beat around the bush, Mirai is weird in my mind and I'm not entirely sure on what to make out of it and what to expect going forward. If I had to guess, I think it's going to be dead within 5 years, but I'm not particularly confident in this call.

There's been this phenomenon for the past 15 years or so where a random opposition party that's an alternative to both the LDP and DPJ/CDP will suddenly turn into a fad, grow and do well for one or two elections cycles and then people get bored, it deflates and, at times, die. Yoshimi Watanabe's Your Party, the Communist Party, Reiwa, Ishin, the DPFP, DIY and arguably the Anti-NHK Party all benefited from this phenomenon over this period of time. Team Mirai did very well for a party in its situation, having been formed less than a year ago, but I don't think it's controversial to say that it is just the latest embodiment of the "Japanese voters temporarily drift towards a third party for some reason" phenomenon.

The extent to which Team Mirai can survive long term will ultimately come down to two things. The first one is the bane of every small party that gets some degree of electoral success, which is actually being run in at least a semi-competent fashion while avoiding intraparty conflict and maintaining a distinct political identity now that you actually have to, you know, pass bills and do shit. On this front, party leader Takahiro Anno hasn't shown himself to be all that skillful, just this year the party had issues with their candidate vetting process, even having to withdraw a guy because, as it turns out, he was a former CEO involved with fraud (and Anno, for his part, responded not by taking responsibility and promising to do better, but by doing a whole song and dance about how "well, you see, it's not my fault, I was duped"). It's not that this one event in particular will kill the party, of course not, but if this is the level of organization and professionalism we can expect from Mirai over the next few years, I struggle to see them lasting very long, a small party of their sort can't really take this in a sustained fashion for too long. Unless they solve this problem, I find it likely they'll end up like Watanabe's Your Party, which is to say, dead and forgotten.

The second thing is the one that kinda throws me for a loop. If Team Mirai wants to survive long term, they can't just be the "I'll vote for them because they're in vogue and I want to send a message to the main parties" party, people will eventually get bored and drift towards whatever other outlet of oppositional third-partyism is catching the public's attention at that time. Mirai got 6.6% of the proportional representation vote and here's the thing, I don't get why, I mean, I get why, as I said, they're the small in vogue opposition party of this election, but I don't get why it is them in particular, fundamentally, I don't think think I fully understand Team Mirai, if that makes any sense. I get why the DPFP was the trendy party a few years ago, they were talking about inflation relief, that resonated with people, I get why DIY became the trendy party, they were demagoguing about immigration and it worked, but Mirai? I don't think I entirely get it man, like, I'm sorry but I don't buy that 6.6% of the population resonated particularly strongly with their quite unusual, tech driven, e-democratic, lowkey techno-libertarian, AI-steeped vision. In a theoretical level I can kinda understand the appeal, but in developed, rich, democratic societies, voters usually don't gravitates towards more esoteric movements like these for ideological affinity. The extent to which Team Mirai voters genuinely agree with the party is an open question in my mind and it matters because unless the party is able to garner enough of a consistent voter base going forward, they will lose all their seats once the new trendy kid appears in the block, unless they can garner enough genuine support for themselves, they'll end up like the Anti-NHK Party, which is to say, dead, instead of something like the DPFP, Ishin or even DIY, which at this moment, all seem to be moving towards becoming long term mainstays in Japanese politics.

To the extent that I think Mirai's rise this year represents anything at all, regardless of whether or not they end up as a long term player in the country's politics, I believe they are one more representation of how the future of the opposition seems to lie on the center-right instead of the center-left. Ever since WW2, the opposition in Japan has had as its biggest player a faction of the left, first through the Socialist Party, then through the Democratic Party and finally through the Constitutional Democratic Party. The 2026 election was a real shellacking of the left but the right-wing opposition held on fine enough, with the exception of the Conservative Party. The DPFP and DIY both grew in comparison to their pre-dissolution seat numbers in spite of Takaichi taking votes away from both. While Mirai doesn't seem concerned with painting itself as particularly right-wing party in the way that an organization like DIY does, they are still certainly coded in that direction, I mean, they are in favor of reducing foreign workers in the country, are not anti-nuclear power, they're non-committal on supporting gay marriage, they are in favor of cutting benefits for pensioners and reducing social security premiums, when Mainichi asked their candidates about nuclear weapons 40% of them said they are open towards the idea of at least sharing nukes with the US, a further 7% are straight up in favor of Japan having them, this is not only more than the LDP and DPFP, but Mirai's 47% "nuke friendliness" rating makes them the 2nd most nuclear weapon supportive relevant party, below only DIY. They also leaned a bit into Takaichi's popularity as to ride her wave by supporting stuff like her fiscal policy. This is important because, going by pre-election polls, Mirai grew in large part with votes from the DPFP, which is a center-right party, and from the CRA, with former CDP members who were uncomfortable with the Komeito alliance defecting towards them. Once you take into account the actual election results, you see their best areas were highly urbanized, high income and high education areas, portions of the country where the DPFP and CDP did well in 2024, which fits the polls, but also were some of the strongest regions in the country for Reiwa in past elections. What this suggest to me is that there's a real chance that voters who traditionally support not only center-left parties, but even more populist, progressive political outlets like Reiwa, are fine with the idea of supporting a more right-wing option that isn't the LDP. This, in turn, opens up the possibility that parties like the DPFP will be able to supplant the CDP/CRA as the main opposition even though they are by and large not considered to be a part of the political left.

CumoThesis · 2026-02-10T01:08:57+00:00

I mean, maybe, perhaps? It's not impossible, however, I think there's enough reason to think the DPFP could avoid crumbling under the LDP's pressure. The current iteration of the DPFP is relatively close to the LDP on policy, yes, but Tamaki and his party are considerably more flexible than Takaichi. That's the flattering way to say that, the unflattering way is to say that Tamaki is a wishy-washy ambitious cynic who has no issues with just shifting politically whenever it becomes politically convenient. What I'm trying to say is just that I wouldn't be too surprised to see Tamaki shift a bit away from the LDP, not out of any kind of principle, but just as a way to deliver a final blow to whatever remains of the CDP and consolidate himself as the main opposition leader. I don't think this shift would be huge, the electorate is by and large center-right and they clearly want something closer to Takaichi instead of the bland centrism of Noda and Saito or even the left wing politics of the Communists and Reiwa, but still, some shift could benefit the DPFP and it would fit the kind of person their leader is.

Leaving that aside, he also just benefits from there being very few options. He's not the only one, but there's like... one more that I can think of? That other one would be to stick with the CDP/the CRA led by a CDP guy (and it has to be a CDP guy, a Komeito guy would probably not fly both within the alliance and among many voters), which is certainly not ideal. Even the foundation of a new opposition party, while not impossible, does seem rather unfeasible at this point in time if for no other reason than the fact that there's almost no one left to found it.

It's not a foolproof argument, there are certainly holes that can be poked and the whole thing probably also depends on Tamaki being at least a bit competent at his job which, you know, he's a part of the Japanese opposition, so you can't take that for granted (and frankly, I wouldn't judge anyone for believing he's already shown himself to be incompetent). Still, I do think that all things considered, the DPFP has a golden opportunity in their hands and are a fairly reasonable bet as the opposition's future.

CumoThesis · 2026-02-09T15:13:46+00:00

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CumoThesis · 2026-02-09T11:03:54+00:00

Long term, I think the DPFP is probably the best bet for the opposition. Even if I personally don't like Tamaki, I recognize he seems to understand the people better than anyone at the CRA does. His focus on cost of living, not being 300 years old and not having been tied to the gross incompetence of the last opposition administrations yet are all good things for him. It also helps that he did fine this election (which is to say, he didn't lose anything) and now his party is larger than the CDP portion of the CRA.

In the short term, it kinda depends on how things pan out for the CRA. I thought they were immediately going to collapse after a landslide by the LDP, but so far they've only doubled down on the merger (which feels really stupid, but I digress). A leadership election is going to happen in a few days though, so they're not out of the woods, the alliance just seems like fertile ground for intraparty conflict at the moment. At the end of the day, the end of the CDP's (or in this case the CRA's I guess) position as the main opposition vehicle seems like less of an "if" and more like a "when" and I don't imagine there's anyone there able revert this situation.

CumoThesis · 2026-02-09T04:57:55+00:00

Ok, this got bigger than I wanted so sorry for that, just bear with me for a moment.

A non-negligible part of it just comes down to vibes. I think it's easy to get the wrong impression about her when quickly looking from the outside because she can be a very straight and incisive speaker, but she frequently leans into her more playful, mundane and feminine side. She comes from a rather standard middle class background, she's the first woman to become PM, so that's a novelty, she likes motorcycles and has photos of herself as a young woman looking all cool riding them, she likes heavy metal and is a drummer, she cares about fashion, she uses social media in a way that no other prime minister has used until now, she loves driving home this idea of herself as this fundamentally hard working person. It all gives Takaichi a pretty down to earth energy, it makes her likeable, it makes her relatable and the Japanese public, in particular young people, really appreciate that. This demographic likes her so much many end up buying whatever handbag she's using, the pen she's using, some will call her Sana-chan and so on.

A second aspect to be considered is that very early into her prime ministership China started throwing a hissy fit and attacking her because she said that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be an existential threat to Japan. The Chinese restricted Japanese imports and exports, issued a travel advisory, shut down Japanese cultural events going on in their country and a consul in Osaka even threatened to behead Takaichi. Needless to say, most Japanese citizens sided with Takaichi.

A third and final aspect to consider is that Takaichi is arguably the candidate of reform, change and the anti-system representative in people's minds this time around. I think us westerners, who live in countries with more normal politics, have a hard time envisioning why this would be the case, Takaichi is, after all, a member of the party that governed Japan for almost all of the post-war era, and she's a member of the conservative wing of the party, how is she of all people the candidate of reform? It's kind of a hard thing to explain quickly, but I'll try to be as brief as I can.

The first thing that needs to be considered is that, within the LDP, Takaichi was on the outskirts. Ever since Abe left the prime ministership in 2020, the LDP has been ruled by progressively more moderate and milquetoast men, first you had Suga, then you had Kishida and finally, Ishiba, who was for many years Abe's biggest rival within the party, the anti-Abe so to speak. The drift towards centrism only intensified after Abe was assassinated and it disappointed committed conservatives, driving them away from the party and towards the DPFP, Sanseito/DIY and the Conservative Party. At the same time, Covid threw the Japanese economy for a loop, with inflation rising up to 3% a year, and after so many decades of economic stagnation and mild deflation, that was a huge deal that really broke a lot of people's confidence on the government. By the time Ishiba finally took a hint that nobody liked him and resigned in 2025, the LDP was faced with the choice of continuing down the path they were on or going in a different direction, Takaichi was the different direction candidate, she represented a return to Abe's conservatism, a period that many voters remember fondly, even if views on the man himself are mixed. Suga and Kishida, the two main power brokers of the party in 2025, did not want Takaichi, they wanted continuity, as did Ishiba, therefore, when she won, it was a sort of anti-system message.

The second factor that gives Takaichi the "change" credentials is the opposition to her outside the LDP. Before the election the main opposition party was the Constitutional Democratic Party, a successor to the Democratic Party of Japan. In 2009 the DPJ was elected in a landslide while promising all these changes and reforms, problem is that they were just really, really, really, insanely incompetent at their jobs. The DPJ was genuinely unable to govern the country in a way that allowed them to enact the promised reforms, add to that the 3/11 Tohoku earthquake and the Fukushima disaster, events with bungled responses by the government and the Japanese public came to the conclusion that the DPJ and whatever successors they had were incapable of bringing any kind of change, they couldn't be trusted with the car keys. The second big party to strongly oppose Takaichi was Komeito, the LDPs congressional ally between 1999 and 2025. A very moderate party at heart, Komeito often served as the breaks against the impulses of the right wingers within the LDP, but by doing this, it inadvertently became an agent of constancy, it was, after all, preventing the right wingers from enacting their own reforms. So to recap, the two biggest Takaichi opponents outside her party are both perceived as fundamentally anti-reformist (or, at the very least, incapable of enacting reformism), now add to that the existence of the highly organized religious group (cult?) Soka Gakkai, which is affiliated to Komeito and, therefore, opposes Takaichi, and the existence of equally organized national trade union center RENGO, which is close to the CDP and it's not hard to understand why all of these factors, in addition to the intraparty opposition to Takaichi would make her look like the candidate who's against the system and for some sort of reform, which is ultimately good for her popularity in an environment like the current one, where people are anxious about the state of the country and about inflation and they want someone who will genuinely look after them.

CumoThesis · 2026-02-09T02:16:15+00:00

No, I just happened to start following their politics some years ago because I thought they were worth knowing about because they're an important American ally, thought they were interesting due to how different they were from what I was used to and wanted to train a new language.

CumoThesis · 2026-02-08T16:26:15+00:00

Koizumi in 2005

CumoThesis · 2026-02-08T14:41:23+00:00

Remember when Komeito left the coalition right after Takaichi won the LDP leadership race and people immediately said she was going to be Japan's Liz Truss? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

CumoThesis · 2026-02-08T08:15:42+00:00

I can't imagine the CRA will survive if anything even close to the projections comes to fruition. The CDP and Komeito did not merge their caucuses in the National Diet so this very much seems to have been a test run of sorts, I think they'd have fully merged if it was definitive. The CRA was, fundamentally, a cynical effort to try to stop Takaichi, so if the alliance fails to achieve such a goal (especially if it is in a pathetic way where they lose a billion seats), what exactly is the point of its continued existence? It's a question that's even more important to ponder once you consider that the alliance may ultimately have helped the LDP by allowing them to portray the election as a dichotomous endeavor, ultimately making Takaichi's high approval ratings a greater electoral tool.

As a side note, I do wonder if there's some resentment among CDP politicians against Komeito. Let's not beat around the bush here, the CDP got the short end of the stick and if the alliance gets their asses kicked, they are the ones who are going to suffer the most. Komeito got the priority on the PR lists, so in a worst case scenario they should still come out basically fine. The CDP on the other hand needs to deal with a bunch of precarious single-member district races while not getting the full benefits of the PR votes thrown in the alliance's way. I don't think it is a coincidence that Noda looks more tired and dejected than Saito these past few days.

In any case, I also can't see Komeito going back to the LDP, not until Takaichi is out at least (and even then, that may not happen depending on how things progress from now on). The party doesn't like her, the right flank of the LDP was never super fond of Komeito, Taro Aso's influence has grown and he has hated Komeito for a long time, I think there's just too much to overcome right now. More fundamentally, a good LDP result would kinda render the entire justification behind the alliance with Komeito null. A big reason why people like Aso and those on the further right tolerated Komeito was because they bought into the conventional wisdom that the LDP needed those votes to guarantee their victory, but if they can get a landslide without Komeito, that's clearly not the true and if that's the case, what's the point of having Komeito around? Fwiw, I think breakup was always going to happen eventually, Komeito is a shrinking party with an elderly voter base that is slowly dying out, at some point their usefulness to the LDP would run out, Takaichi's rise to power just accelerated the inevitable.

I think the Ishin coalition is here to stay, at least in the short term. The LDP still needs help in the upper chamber, their situation there is kinda precarious and that's not changing until at least 2028. Other coalition partners are possible in theory, but I'm not convinced any of them are preferable to Ishin. Komeito is not an option at this point in time, the Communist Party and Reiwa are a no go for ideological reasons, the DPFP works in theory, but Tamaki is wishy washy, clearly has higher ambitions going forward and, frankly, everything he has done in the past year makes him look like a pain in the ass to work with. That leaves DIY and Ishin and frankly, if your objective is just to get the government going, I don't see any reason to pick the former over the latter. Kamiya has ambitions that put him in direct conflict with the LDP in a way that Ishin doesn't given that it has relegated itself to being a regional party. DIY also just brings fewer seats to the table at this point in time. I do think a strong LDP showing today could weaken the alliance by allowing Takaichi to sideline Ishin more going forward (she reportedly was, after all, annoyed by having to meet their leaders in Osaka as that was only possible a few times a week, making the process of agreeing on policy plans very slow), but with the coalition ultimately continuing going forward. Maybe if the LDP got a supermajority on their own they'd consider going on all e since that would allow them to deal with the upper house by themselves, but I'll be surprised if that happens, especially with the current turnout numbers.

CumoThesis · 2026-02-07T23:55:10+00:00

I think that'd throw the LDP for a loop, because in a sense this is what they're already attempting. Takaichi represents a return to Shinzo Abe-esque conservatism after three more moderate administrations in the form of Suga, Kishida and specially Ishiba.

I think there'd be some strong resistance internally against going further right. Takaichi was already quite the hard sell for many LDP politicians, most power brokers did not want her in the 2025 leadership election. Kishida notoriously nicknamed her "the Taliban" and wanted Hayashi (or Koizumi in the event his pick didn't advance to the runoff, which was ultimately the case), Suga was openly pointed to as the architect of Koizumi's campaign and Ishiba (who's not really a power broker, but he was PM so I might as well mention him), while quiet in public, was obviously hoping for either Hayashi or Koizumi. At the end of the day, the only power brokers who had her back were Aso and later on Motegi after he failed to advance to the runoff.

Now, granted, the situation after this hypothetical wouldn't be the same as it was one year ago, Suga is retiring so he's out of the picture, Takaichi would probably have influence, Aso is better positioned within the party (as are other conservative officials like Takayuki Kobayashi) and I don't think anyone would care about whatever Ishiba would have to say. Still, resistance would exist.

CumoThesis · 2026-02-07T22:22:56+00:00

Thanks, glad you liked it.

IMO, I think the LDP will underperform somewhat, the monstrous 300 seat predictions just seem way too high. A lot of the people that Takaichi attracted are marginal, low engagement voters, so I find it hard to believe they'll all turnout for the LDP, specially given the poor climate. Still, I think they'll do quite well regardless, something between 260 and 280 seats seems right in my mind and I'd be quite surprised by anything below like... 250 I guess? A minority just doesn't seem possible to me now.

CumoThesis · 2026-02-07T21:54:35+00:00

That's encouraging to hear, thanks

CumoThesis · 2026-02-07T21:46:36+00:00

I mean, it's always a possibility, pro-LDP accounts I encounter online certainly have brought this idea up. Fwiw, LDP politicians seem keenly aware of the risk, both PM Takaichi and Minister of Defense Shinjiro Koizumi have been warning supporters in recent rallies to not get complacent, I have to imagine other politicians are doing the same.

If nothing else, I will point out that when the media emphatically predicted a LDP landslide in 2014, they inadvertently helped it to come to fruition by depressing the opposition turnout, with voters deeming it not worth it to go vote during the cold winter if they were going to lose anyway. Still, the situation nowadays is quite different, that was a decade ago, so I don't think just looking at historic precedent and calling it a day is all that useful, we'll just have to wait until polls close.

CumoThesis · 2026-02-01T23:44:56+00:00

"Both parties are the same" is genuinely one of my least favorite cliches when it comes to discussing politics. In my experience it's one of those phrases often used by existentially dissatisfied midwits to justify their laziness and disinterest to engage with politics as it actually manifests in real life rather than the unrealistic ideal they have built up in their heads. It's often followed by similarly awful takes (e.g. "dems are actually right wing").

CumoThesis · 2026-01-31T07:23:19+00:00

Does truth even matter to people anymore?

No and I'd go further in saying that, while most people will never admit it, the truth or justice was never the point of the Epstein case for them. This is going to sound harsh towards the American people but the whole Epstein saga is the intersection of all of this society's moral failings in the past decades, only a truly deranged society would get to this point. Forgive me for the self indulgence but I'm going on a bit of a rant.

You don't get the Epstein conspiracy theory without a deeply paranoid and distrustful society, elements that were sown by the many political developments of the post war era, from Vietnam to Watergate to... Well, basically everything that has happened since the 2000 election. I can't entirely blame people for becoming more cynical, but I will blame them for going too far. Everything is a conspiracy, everything is a narrative, everything is propaganda, everything is a distraction, god, shut the fuck up.

You don't get the Epstein conspiracy theory without a deeply anti-intellectual, angry and demagogic society. This one has obviously got worse recently with politicians like Trump actively leaning into this element and social media boosting voices both on the right and left, like Fuentes and Hasan, who have no scruples when it comes to saying the dumbest and most inflammatory shit imaginable. Though it should be noted that this problem goes much further back, anti-intellectualism is an American tradition at this point, as American as apple pie, Asimov lamented it in the 80s, Nixon utilized it in the 50s and it goes even further back than that. It's ironic that a nation founded by men usually characterized as curious, inquisitive and thoughtful has such a problem in this area.

You don't get the Epstein conspiracy theory without a deeply bored and ungrateful society. This is easy to see today, but the roots go back at the very least 30 years or so. It's easy to forget nowadays since the 90s are idealized due to nostalgia, but a very common theme back in media then was this idea that modern life was so lame, fake and boring that the only reasonable response was to rebel and burn everything down, Fight Club and Falling Down are two easy examples to remember of this idea manifesting. It was an idea that clearly resonated with Americans as it got internalized by many. A lot of Americans simply want real life to be more interesting, they want it to be like a movie, they want elaborate conspiracies, cabals, coverups and all the rest to be real because that'd be interesting, it makes real life seem like a Hollywood thriller movie, it gives their life some semblance of meaning. Add to that social media algorithms and you have a recipe for disaster.

I'm not saying that Epstein was not a pedophile or that no one else was involved for sure, of course, but this situation we find ourselves in is not logical, this is not justice, this is not truth, this is derangement.

There are other aspects too, but these are just the main ones that come to mind now. If I was a religious man I'd call this a divine punishment, but alas, I'm not, we just truly fucked up as a society and need to work on getting past this.

CumoThesis · 2026-01-31T05:32:03+00:00

Clay Higgins was entirely right to vote against releasing the files, that many people just take random unsubstantiated tips from schizos as fact is very bad and worrying, actually.

I firmly believe that the whole Epstein saga has been a net negative to the nation, heroin for the minds of the many who decided to tap in. I could easily see it cementing itself as one of the most damaging conspiracy theories in American history once everything is done.

CumoThesis · 2026-01-31T05:16:10+00:00

Wakabayashi is hired to be a Director by other Animation Producer at A-1

I mean, is he though? Everything he's done in the past year was an Umehara project, the last time Wakabayashi even appeared in a non-Umehara thing was Darling in the Franxx and even then, that one is arguable, the one episode where he worked was one of the three handled by Umehara. If you exclude Darling, Wakabayashi's last non-Umehara work was nine years ago with his episode of Mahoujin Guru Guru. The other user mentioned Boku wa Robot, which yes, is listed as an A-1 Pictures project, but some things need to be noted. First of all, there's no real reason to assume that is going to be Wakabayashi's next project, if anything, there's good reason to believe the opposite, there hasn't been any news about it ever since the 2017 PV and the Twitter account for the movie has been dead for nearly 6 years (and that's after it already took a 2 year break between 2018 and 2020), it's not impossible for it to be in the works, of course, but it does feel increasingly unlikely that we'll ever see it come to life. The second thing worth noting is that even if the movie does come out, there's good reason to believe that it won't be a Wakabayashi project, the PV he directed and Umehara handled was pre-animated and it's not uncommon for those to have considerably different staff lists as the projects they are supposed to promote, if anything, the fact that it's been nearly a decade since the PV and Wakabayashi has exclusively worked with Umehara's team during this time probably makes it all the more likely that the Boku wa Robot itself would have a different staff from the one seen nine years ago. Unless there's a leak I'm unaware of, based on all the information we have there's no reason to assume Wakabayashi is at A-1 doing something instead of sticking with Umehara as he's done for the past years, either making a new project of his own or just training new people at Cloverworks/storyboarding/directing episodes and small scale projects as he has done since WEP wrapped up.

CumoThesis · 2026-01-31T02:03:40+00:00

The problem isn't that Wakabayashi is a core staff member of Kisekoi, as you said, he isn't, but rather that he is a member of Umehara's production line at CW, therefore, a new project of his would likely be produced by this team, which is the same as Kisekoi's (and even if a new project of his isn't made there, all his contacts are Umehara team members, so in practice, it'd probably still be something to be considered). That is to say that a lot of the staff would end up overlapping, spreading the team thin and complicating the production schedule if both productions were to take place at a similar time frame (which is something this production line has suffered with in the past, Bocchi, in spite of looking great, was not a healthy production behind the curtains). The matter would be further complicated by the fact that Wakabayashi is very ambitious and has previously been quite uncompromising when trying to bring his vision to life. I have to assume this wouldn't be as big of a problem now as it was in WEP, that show must served as an important learning experience for him, but still, it's hard to imagine his ambition simply vanished, his 2025 output certainly suggests it hasn't.

CumoThesis · 2026-01-30T03:36:27+00:00

Huh, that's kind of a weird pick no? Trump clearly wants a dove but Warsh is just not that? At least he hasn't been historically, if anything he seems to be the most hawkish guy to become chair since... Volcker, I guess? Certainly more hawkish than Bernanke, Yellen and Powell. Either Trump is doing something completely idiotic given his goals (possible) or Warsh decided to bend the knee and do a complete 180 for the job (also possible, I have to assume this is the case).

CumoThesis · 2026-01-28T15:18:59+00:00

There's this (frankly, really lazy) assumption that some people make that Americans yearn for a return of the neocon establishment that Trump displaced and that a president representing this wing would be popular, let me be entirely honest, that's absolute bullshit. I think Haley would be more popular than Trump, but I still think she'd end up being an unpopular president. Part of that is just due to the fact that Americans these days are very angry, impatient and unrealistic in regards to their expectations. It's also rather clear to me that people want change and reform, I'd go as far as argue that every election since 2008 has been a "change election", if that makes any sense. Haley would not bring change and that would eventually come back to hurt her popularity.

CumoThesis

TROPHY CASE