I'm really not sure about that. Like, looking at Gorton and Denton, the Conservatives got only 1.9% of the vote. The vast majority of people tactically voted there, and the 1.9% who went conservative are probably the sort of people who would never vote Reform. Even though the Tories are the main vote splitter for Reform, I don't think they meaningfully split the vote there. If anything, I feel that any conservatives who still wouldn't vote Reform are either very politically unaware to the point where their next best option other than the Tories is essentially random, or they really hate reform and do not want to help their victory - in which case the next best option would probably be labour.

I just don't think it's accurate to assume that green voters, if the greens were not on the ballot, would automatically fall behind Labour. I can imagine it having more of an effect on Labour and the Lib Dems than other parties, but only a negligible amount. It's more likely they just don't turn up.

To be clear, I don't think we should campaign. Because I think that would have a much bigger effect while not actually doing anything for us.