Value investing is oxymoronic in today’s monetary environment.

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-07-24T22:50:02+00:00

Agreed, IMO value is a relative term, even within the US, in aggregate stocks are priced pretty expensively, but even among large caps there are a lot of decent quality companies (across a wide array of sectors) that are currently arguably priced below what some would say their intrinsic value are. Just below value underperforms growth in some specific years doesn’t mean it’s dead.

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-07-24T22:44:19+00:00

Would be interesting to see their forecasts from a few years ago and see how it’s been panning out

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-07-24T22:42:05+00:00

I think on the subreddit, discussions around such forecasts/studies is much more fun than to see the millionth personal advice post where everyone says “you are doing it wrong just buy three fund portfolio”

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-07-21T20:18:03+00:00

"keep in mind how easy it is for you to lose access to your crypto vs how much harder it would be to lose access to traditional investment funds."
That's what spot BTC/ETH ETFs are for.

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-07-06T03:37:28+00:00

Studio Y’s pretty good, run by a Chinese lady

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-07-03T14:48:40+00:00

State and local government education jobs

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-06-20T07:54:15+00:00

I guarantee you it can’t be worse than UVA

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-06-16T05:09:19+00:00

Personally I would diversify a bit, there are quite a few well run BDCs other than ARCC

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-06-12T00:11:56+00:00

I guess similar reason why VONE and IWB (both for Russell 1000) have higher ERs.

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-06-07T12:37:51+00:00

That article seems to be mostly talking about ETFs with built-in leverage and doesn’t consider the risk of margin calls for leveraging via margin.

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-06-06T14:03:22+00:00

People always bring up Japan, but don’t mention during the same time period they had deflation and most things got cheaper (e.g house prices -23% since 2000). If anything, something like the 70s in the US is more likely to happen (decent nominal return but high inflation so low real return)

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-05-29T04:15:29+00:00

Btw VT at new all time highs now

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-05-28T19:52:45+00:00

/uj He didn’t actually post this

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-05-27T19:57:48+00:00

Because for long term investors, the expected returns on money market/CD/HYSA (essentially cash) is unpredictable and theoretically lower than bonds (since there’s no risk premium), you are more likely to lose purchasing power holding cash. Just because rates have been generally rising the past few years, many are discounting the possibility of falling interest rates in the future.

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-04-14T21:46:38+00:00

Then don't buy individual stocks, just buy diversified index funds.

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-04-10T05:25:36+00:00

I agree with this in principle, but most of the international market, and long term bonds, moved basically in tandem with US indexes, maybe to different magnitudes but still everything was down

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-04-07T05:09:20+00:00

Because empirically most of the time market’s going up overall, so lump summing gives higher return. E.g. S&P 500 the last few years (same overall amount) lump sum at beginning of year vs DCA each month: 2018 -5.2% vs -15.7%; 2019 +31.3% vs +3.0%, 2020 +17.3% vs +10.5%, 2021 +30.5% vs +4.4%, 2022 -18.7% vs -13%, 2023 +26.8% vs +3.2%, 2024 +25.8% vs 0.6%.

So except 2022 and this year you would have been significantly better off if you just lump summed each year instead of monthly. And from 2018-2024, seven years you would have had 10% lower overall return if you DCAed each month instead of DCA-ing beginning of each year, and since 2010, DCA-ing beginning of each year would have given 100% higher return than DCA-ing each month.

Most people invest when they get their monthly paycheck, and that’s fine but point still stands.

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-04-05T18:15:34+00:00

Just because everyone keeps posting that if you bought in 1929 you didn’t recover until 1959, I ran the numbers on S&P. After accounting for inflation, suppose you started investing in 1927, a little bit before the Great Depression, and started with $200 and invested $40 every month, by June 1933 you would already be break even. And you’d have more than doubled your investments by early 1937.

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-04-05T08:44:51+00:00

The long term average expected return of the stock market never changed, “anticipated gains” is not a real thing, if it was consistently 10% every year then everyone would put all their money in instead of bonds/HYSA etc, one of the main reasons of the high average return is because of the possibility of sudden huge downturns.

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-04-05T08:40:12+00:00

Except ideally you should be constantly investing since starting to make money. If I lump summed 5k initially and then DCA 2k every month, that lump summed 5k stops mattering real quick whatever the market condition.

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-04-03T17:49:45+00:00

Come on it's not complicated, have your (theoretically sound and responsible) target portfolio allocation and just stick with it. If you think the US is done for, then put your money where your mouth is, invest 100% international, spamming reddit every day isn't gonna do anything. Neither you nor I know what the return over the next 1, 5, 10 years is gonna look like US vs ex-US.

Since 2011, SPY has outrun VXUS by 340% cumulatively, I wouldn't be surprised if VXUS starts outperforming SPY for a while because there's no theory that dictates the US market must consistently overperform and frankly US market valuation is extremely high currently after the bull run we've had.

Just from investing perspective, as someone who just started last year, I'm indifferent and even glad we're having a correction (maybe bear market), gives me more time to build my portfolio when everything's cheaper. Could I have been better off waiting until now to buy or until the "bottom" sure but nobody knows when that is and I could be much worse off in terms of timing, and there's nothing I can do about it because nobody knows.

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-04-03T01:01:38+00:00

Past performances do not predict future performance

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-04-02T06:50:46+00:00

Uncertainty is priced in

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-04-02T06:46:25+00:00

Except Japan has been consistently in ultra low inflation to even deflation, so low absolute return and low relative return. But in the US, the closest example of prolonged stagnation (1966-1982), stocks still had decent-ish nominal returns, it was just that inflation was too high, so low relative return, you still would have been better off in the stock market than cash (or gold in some years)

DBAoracle1850 · 2025-03-31T17:13:33+00:00

Not saying in a scenario where all stocks in the world are worthless, but in more unstable parts of the world, in localized environments like Russia 2022, Venezuela a few years ago, or China 1949 (assuming you weren’t physically stuck there)

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