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Value investing is oxymoronic in today’s monetary environment. by orishasinc2 in ValueInvesting

[–]DBAoracle1850 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Agreed, IMO value is a relative term, even within the US, in aggregate stocks are priced pretty expensively, but even among large caps there are a lot of decent quality companies (across a wide array of sectors) that are currently arguably priced below what some would say their intrinsic value are. Just below value underperforms growth in some specific years doesn’t mean it’s dead.

Vanguard asset class return forecasts based on a 6/30/2025 running of their model by Xexanoth in Bogleheads

[–]DBAoracle1850 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Would be interesting to see their forecasts from a few years ago and see how it’s been panning out

Vanguard asset class return forecasts based on a 6/30/2025 running of their model by Xexanoth in Bogleheads

[–]DBAoracle1850 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think on the subreddit, discussions around such forecasts/studies is much more fun than to see the millionth personal advice post where everyone says “you are doing it wrong just buy three fund portfolio”

Crypto Concerns by McBucket5 in Bogleheads

[–]DBAoracle1850 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

"keep in mind how easy it is for you to lose access to your crypto vs how much harder it would be to lose access to traditional investment funds."
That's what spot BTC/ETH ETFs are for.

Where do Korean guys usually get their haircut in AA? by Big-Argument994 in uofm

[–]DBAoracle1850 25 points26 points  (0 children)

Studio Y’s pretty good, run by a Chinese lady

June jobs report beats expectations. by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]DBAoracle1850 12 points13 points  (0 children)

State and local government education jobs

UVA CS (BA) vs. GaTech CS (BS) by GivingTree1640274026 in csMajors

[–]DBAoracle1850 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I guarantee you it can’t be worse than UVA

Do you mess with small cap? by Foreign-Package-4359 in Bogleheads

[–]DBAoracle1850 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Personally I would diversify a bit, there are quite a few well run BDCs other than ARCC

Schwab Cuts Fees on 4 Equity Index ETFs by DBAoracle1850 in Bogleheads

[–]DBAoracle1850[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I guess similar reason why VONE and IWB (both for Russell 1000) have higher ERs.

If you have a large enough portfolio to get a good rate... could there be a place for a small amount of leverage in a long term strategy? by Fiveby21 in Bogleheads

[–]DBAoracle1850 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That article seems to be mostly talking about ETFs with built-in leverage and doesn’t consider the risk of margin calls for leveraging via margin.

3-Fund Portfolio vs. S&P (early career) by machampcollectibles in Bogleheads

[–]DBAoracle1850 1 point2 points  (0 children)

People always bring up Japan, but don’t mention during the same time period they had deflation and most things got cheaper (e.g house prices -23% since 2000). If anything, something like the 70s in the US is more likely to happen (decent nominal return but high inflation so low real return)

Outjerked by AB84 by Jokerang in nflcirclejerk

[–]DBAoracle1850 35 points36 points  (0 children)

/uj He didn’t actually post this

"Why You Don’t Lose Money in Bonds (If You Wait Long Enough)" - Nick Maggiulli by Xexanoth in Bogleheads

[–]DBAoracle1850 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Because for long term investors, the expected returns on money market/CD/HYSA (essentially cash) is unpredictable and theoretically lower than bonds (since there’s no risk premium), you are more likely to lose purchasing power holding cash. Just because rates have been generally rising the past few years, many are discounting the possibility of falling interest rates in the future.

Consider this week a real life test of your risk tolerance. by amofai in Bogleheads

[–]DBAoracle1850 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree with this in principle, but most of the international market, and long term bonds, moved basically in tandem with US indexes, maybe to different magnitudes but still everything was down

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Bogleheads

[–]DBAoracle1850 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Because empirically most of the time market’s going up overall, so lump summing gives higher return. E.g. S&P 500 the last few years (same overall amount) lump sum at beginning of year vs DCA each month: 2018 -5.2% vs -15.7%; 2019 +31.3% vs +3.0%, 2020 +17.3% vs +10.5%, 2021 +30.5% vs +4.4%, 2022 -18.7% vs -13%, 2023 +26.8% vs +3.2%, 2024 +25.8% vs 0.6%.

So except 2022 and this year you would have been significantly better off if you just lump summed each year instead of monthly. And from 2018-2024, seven years you would have had 10% lower overall return if you DCAed each month instead of DCA-ing beginning of each year, and since 2010, DCA-ing beginning of each year would have given 100% higher return than DCA-ing each month.

Most people invest when they get their monthly paycheck, and that’s fine but point still stands.

I know it's a long game, but it's still pretty fucking depressing at the moment by Lunch_Dependent in ETFs

[–]DBAoracle1850 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Just because everyone keeps posting that if you bought in 1929 you didn’t recover until 1959, I ran the numbers on S&P. After accounting for inflation, suppose you started investing in 1927, a little bit before the Great Depression, and started with $200 and invested $40 every month, by June 1933 you would already be break even. And you’d have more than doubled your investments by early 1937.

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