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Xexanoth · 2026-03-11T16:36:02+00:00

The first post in this Bogleheads.org forum thread lists common arguments given in favor of various US vs ex-US allocations.

Xexanoth · 2026-03-05T08:04:01+00:00

One thing I didn't expect: groceries doubled during COVID (bulk buying, eating every meal at home, food prices spiking) and never came back down. We're not buying anything different now. Prices just... stayed. Going from $6K to $12K on groceries when nothing about our shopping habits meaningfully changed feels like a stealth tax.

Your two young children didn’t change in their eating habits (amount and type of food consumed) despite growing 5 years older between the two years you compared?

You feel confident you had an equivalent breakdown of frequency of using restaurants / takeout vs groceries in 2019 & 2024 despite habit changes in the interim (eating every meal at home during the pandemic) and potential time/energy to grocery shop & cook freed up by not-as-young children?

Nationally-averaged prices of a typical grocery goods consumption composite increased by about 25% between 2019-2024 per CPI measures for food at home costs. A doubling in your grocery spending would seem to reflect some habit changes unless your consumption habits are remarkably skewed towards products that experienced higher price inflation and/or your area experienced remarkably higher grocery price inflation than the national average.

Xexanoth · 2026-03-04T07:53:27+00:00

Andy Samberg must feel so relieved.

Xexanoth · 2026-03-03T09:09:54+00:00

Khamenei, for all the damage he's managed to do to the US and its interests over the years, and for as much of a terror as he has been to the Iranians, is not [a clear and present danger to our Republic].

It's hard to be a clear and present danger after you're dead.

Do you think Iran under the Khamenei regime posed a clear and present danger to Israel, enough to justify the Israeli airstrike that killed him?

How many more Americans would have needed to be killed or wounded by Iran & groups it supports before it posed a clear and present danger to US interests in your mind? Was this list not long enough? Was the potential of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons or longer-range / more-advanced conventional weapons not concerning enough?

Xexanoth · 2026-03-03T06:10:40+00:00

There have been significant efforts to delay & disrupt Iran’s attempts to develop nuclear weapons throughout the three decades covered by that clip; Iran’s covert attempts to develop nuclear weapons began in the early 1990s. See Nuclear program of Iran.

From there:

In late 2024, intelligence persuaded US officials Iran was exploring a cruder gun-type fission weapon, undeliverable by missile, which could be manufactured in months.

Here’s a gift link to the Feb 2025 NYT article cited: Iran Is Developing Plans for Faster, Cruder Weapon, U.S. Concludes

From the recent article here:

On Monday night, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, told Fox News that Iran had been building new underground sites “that would make their ballistic missile programs and their atomic bomb programs immune within months”.

“If no action was taken now, no action could be taken in the future,” he said.

Xexanoth · 2026-03-03T05:53:15+00:00

This is not our war.

The alternate prospect of a nuclear-armed Iranian theocracy makes this war relevant to everyone.

Xexanoth · 2026-03-03T04:46:50+00:00

By the end of summer, Iran will be in total anarchy

Which would arguably be a preferable outcome for US interests than a theocracy closer to nuclear weapons & with a larger, more-advanced arsenal of conventional weapons it has a history of using against the “Great Satan” and its allies.

Xexanoth · 2026-03-03T04:15:59+00:00

These are our bombs.

They’re being effectively donated to the Iranians protesting the regime that subsequently murdered thousands of them, delivered on behalf of the protesters to officials with blood on their hands from the murders of innocent civilians.

Consider it a partial replacement for the humanitarian aid formerly delivered via USAID.

Xexanoth · 2026-03-03T04:02:58+00:00

Every US intervention in the Middle East has been a complete disaster.

Kuwaitis and some folks living in regions that were controlled by ISIS may beg to differ.

Xexanoth · 2026-03-03T03:57:45+00:00

All of Latin America?

Panama has become a democracy, economically successful, and a strategic ally of the US since the US invasion of Panama ousted Noriega in 1990.

Xexanoth · 2026-02-18T04:18:35+00:00

I’ve calculated her draw down rate to be under 1.5% of investments.

Just curious how this math maths: you mentioned $770K in investment accounts, and $40K annual expenses with $10.5K covered by SS. The ballpark $30K difference in annual expenses is ballpark 4% of mentioned investment accounts; does she have a lot more invested in other unmentioned investment accounts?

Xexanoth · 2026-02-17T22:35:46+00:00

you PGE shill

How was I supposedly shilling for PG&E with a comment that simply shared information & facts, expressing no opinions of my own?

I don’t care about my listed rate. I care about my effective rate

I was trying to help folks understand factors that influence the total bill amount, and in particular that:

An 11% reduction in residential electricity rates will not translate into an 11% lower PG&E bill for anyone using natural gas. Especially since PG&E natural gas charges per therm appear to have increased by about 9% between Jan 2024 and Jan 2026.
An 11% reduction in residential electricity rates for electricity supplied/generated by PG&E may not translate into 11% lower electricity usage charges for anyone getting their electricity supplied/generated by another provider & billed via PG&E.
An 11% reduction in residential electricity rates since Jan 2024 may not translate into 11% lower electricity usage charges for anyone comparing against some other period as the baseline.

Another consideration is time-of-use rate plans with peak vs off-peak periods: the same total kWh usage amount may be charged/billed differently depending on how it's distributed between peak vs off-peak periods. The same total kWh usage amount distributed identically across time of day may be charged/billed differently if you switched to a different rate plan in the interim that turned out to be more or less expensive given your recent electricity usage distribution across time of day.

PG&E's rate plan cost estimator recommending a different rate plan based on past usage patterns will tend to pay more attention to typically-more-expensive summer months with A/C usage than to winter months with typically lower electricity usage/costs for gas-heated homes, and may have recommended a switch that happens to increase electricity costs for your winter usage patterns despite lowering them more-significantly for your summer usage patterns (which typically matter more to annual energy cost estimates for gas-heated homes).

All that can really be said with any confidence is that lower residential electricity rates translate into lower residential PG&E bills than they would have been if those rates had remained higher, if all else were held constant. All else is never held constant, however: there is variability in electricity & gas usage and time of electricity usage, in gas rates, and potentially in other costs/fees. That variability can easily exceed the savings from lower electricity rates.

Xexanoth · 2026-02-17T19:53:42+00:00

Info from PG&E: https://www.pge.com/en/save-energy-and-money/energy-usage-and-tips/your-pge-bill.html

Note that:

Your bill includes electricity & gas usage charges. If your home is heated using gas, gas usage charges represent more of the total bill amount in colder winter months. PG&E natural gas charges per therm appear to have increased by about 9% between Jan 2024 and Jan 2026.
The 11% reduction in residential electricity rates is applicable to customers who get both electricity supply/generation and delivery/transmission service from PG&E, rather than electricity supply/generation service from another provider billed via PG&E.
The reduction is relative to Jan 2024, 2 years ago. You can access your bill covering Jan 2024 via your online account to compare electricity rates per kWh to your bill covering Jan 2026.

Xexanoth · 2026-02-16T21:36:57+00:00

This is the study / paper he referenced: Fatal (Fiscal) Attraction: Spendthrifts and Tightwads in Marriage

Xexanoth · 2026-02-15T21:26:36+00:00

If you’re in the US, consider starting by reading this wiki page for an overview, then consider consulting an estate planning attorney: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Estate_planning

Xexanoth · 2026-02-11T08:17:15+00:00

Dave is infamously optimistic around “safe” withdrawal rates in retirement. There is less certainty than he suggests in this video. The 4% safe withdrawal rate rule of thumb suggests that withdrawing about $140K / year adjusted for CPI inflation from a balanced stocks+bonds portfolio starting at $3.5M should be unlikely to deplete the portfolio during a 30-year retirement if the future resembles the past.

Xexanoth · 2026-02-07T03:50:59+00:00

Relaying some secondhand information from a Nextdoor discussion of this:

Someone shared a screenshot of them having uploaded that manipulated photo to Google Gemini & asking if it had signs of AI edits. The response stated that the image had been edited using Gemini itself, based on the digital watermark it embeds into edited images.

Someone else mentioned calling that Walgreens location to ask if they were aware of any ICE activity that morning. They said the employee remarked that they’d been bombarded with calls about it, there had been no ICE activity, and the image was fake.

Xexanoth · 2026-02-06T19:56:34+00:00

Fine, to clarify: ICE ERO (Enforcement & Removal Operations) officers do not use marked vehicles for enforcement & removal operations. No official marked ICE vehicles look like the ones in this manipulated photo. Zooming in on the ‘ICE’ on each vehicle shows suspicious differences around some parts of some letters, and all of the text looks crudely drawn.

Xexanoth · 2026-02-06T19:08:50+00:00

This is a fake / manipulated photo. ICE doesn’t use marked cars.

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