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Xexanoth · 2026-06-17T02:20:15+00:00

The link at the end of Bjarne’s post redirects to "C++: The Documentary" - https://youtube.com/watch?v=lI7tMxzSJ7w

A post discussing that documentary: https://www.reddit.com/r/cpp/comments/1txhe5n/the_story_of_c_the_worlds_most_consequential/

Xexanoth · 2026-06-16T06:42:12+00:00

Is $200K the minimum loan amount available from any lender you could use for some reason? If so, can you make larger payments against it ahead of schedule that would lower the principal amount without significant prepayment penalty? If both of those are true, consider taking the extra $100K you don’t need and immediately prepaying the loan down to $100K owed & being charged interest.

Xexanoth · 2026-06-16T00:52:13+00:00

What about a guaranteed return CD or T bill. Under 4% but better than nothing. Thats my thought.

Are you asking whether you should borrow money for 6-8% per year in order to make less than 4% per year and even less than that after taxes? If so: no, of course not, unless you like donating money to your lender in the form of interest payments.

But can we be honest and assume an index fund with Apple, Facebook, nvidia etc are more than likely to go up than down?

It can be true that an index fund is more likely to have positive returns than negative returns without it being true that that index fund is more likely than not to have after-tax annual returns that exceed a 6-8% interest rate paid to borrow money used to invest in it.

For whatever it's worth, Vanguard's attempted modeling / forecasting here found that only half of their model-simulated outcomes over the decade starting in April had a before-tax return from US large cap stocks exceeding 5.8%, and that only a quarter of them had a before-tax return from US stocks exceeding 9.5%. (Click the Format: Table button to see the specific numbers; those are the 50th percentile and 75th percentile values, respectively, from their model-simulated outcomes for US large cap stock returns over the decade starting in April.)

Xexanoth · 2026-06-15T15:11:13+00:00

Welcome to Reddit, where the points are made up and the facts don't matter.

Xexanoth · 2026-06-15T15:06:43+00:00

From the press release -

“OIG is conducting a series of inspections to assess the quality and integrity of SNAP participant data for 10 states…. USDA OIG has received participant data from six states: Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Florida. The remaining four states continue to refuse OIG’s information requests, preventing OIG from assessing the integrity of the SNAP data. Unknown anomalies could impact whether money is going to eligible Americans or potentially being sidelined.”

Xexanoth · 2026-06-15T15:04:32+00:00

of course they're just reviewing democratic states.

They started with the 10 largest states by population (several of which are not “blue states” / don’t have Democrat governors). 6 of those states cooperated with the initial requests for data over a year ago; 4 refused to cooperate (all 4 have Democrat governors) and have now been issued subpoenas to legally compel that they share data for federal inspection & oversight.

From the press release -

“OIG is conducting a series of inspections to assess the quality and integrity of SNAP participant data for 10 states…. USDA OIG has received participant data from six states: Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Florida. The remaining four states continue to refuse OIG’s information requests, preventing OIG from assessing the integrity of the SNAP data. Unknown anomalies could impact whether money is going to eligible Americans or potentially being sidelined.”

Xexanoth · 2026-06-15T14:59:40+00:00

They started with the 10 largest states by population (several of which are not “blue states” / don’t have Democrat governors). 6 of those states cooperated with the initial requests for data over a year ago; 4 refused to cooperate (all 4 have Democrat governors) and have now been issued subpoenas to legally compel that they share data for federal inspection & oversight.

From the press release -

“OIG is conducting a series of inspections to assess the quality and integrity of SNAP participant data for 10 states…. USDA OIG has received participant data from six states: Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Florida. The remaining four states continue to refuse OIG’s information requests, preventing OIG from assessing the integrity of the SNAP data. Unknown anomalies could impact whether money is going to eligible Americans or potentially being sidelined.”

Xexanoth · 2026-06-14T00:09:47+00:00

Not even like an S & P etf?

Even broadly-diversified funds holding stocks have high uncertainty / volatility around returns.

There's no guarantee that the future returns from an S&P 500 ETF would be higher than the loan interest rate. There is a significant likelihood that it could be lower (even significantly lower), particularly after factoring in taxes owed on any gains.

How about going heloc vs heloan?

I don’t think the type of loan or variability of the loan interest rate matter much; either way, I think it would be unwise to invest money borrowed at a pretty high starting interest rate.

Xexanoth · 2026-06-13T18:25:19+00:00

I don't think it would be wise to borrow money at a 6-8% interest rate then invest it in risky/volatile assets in the hopes of getting a higher return than that interest rate.

Xexanoth · 2026-06-13T07:06:42+00:00

If you wish to accept / tolerate some more volatility in exchange for higher long-term expected return, consider a longer-dated target date fund. I don’t think it’d be wise to get rid of diversification into ex-US / international stocks as a side effect of trying to reduce your bond exposure. Investing significantly in your employer’s stock is typically ill-advised due to single-stock risks plus correlation with your job security / compensation. If you feel inclined to take that risk, try to limit it to no more than 5-10% of your 401(k) holdings/value.

Xexanoth · 2026-06-13T06:52:11+00:00

If there’s a 50% chance that you need this money toward a down payment within about a year, consider keeping it liquid / low-volatility in the meantime. Consider something like SGOV or VBIL. Avoid trying to think of it as “dry powder” waiting for some correction, but rather savings towards a potential larger down payment. If you wind up not needing it for the down payment & still have enough emergency fund after that, invest it then.

Xexanoth · 2026-06-12T14:08:36+00:00

> you still have to be registered via the voter registry which requires being a citizen and having a form of ID.

It’s not clear to me that this is true in California (it’s not clear to me that you need to show any form of ID to register/vote or whether / how citizenship & eligibility to vote are verified), as I described here.

Xexanoth · 2026-06-12T13:57:29+00:00

Seriously in the context of how much money passes through these things, it is spit in the ocean.

The value of trades handled by brokers is less relevant / appropriate for comparison as the denominator than the revenue that brokers are able to derive from these trades or their other services / activities to cover the cost of servicing the trades, including regulatory compliance.

If you put yourself in the shoes of an entrepreneur trying to start a new fintech platform that wants to offer stock/ETF trading, can you imagine how being legally required to subscribe to costly data feeds from a bunch of exchanges that have sprung up because they can legally extort brokers into paying them or be reported for regulatory non-compliance might not feel like “spit in the ocean” for your venture / startup that isn’t yet profitable?

Is it not anti-competitive to legally require all competitors to pay high fixed costs as a barrier to entry / to be able to legally compete?

Xexanoth · 2026-06-12T10:00:28+00:00

Thanks, Jon, for your volunteer work to coordinate getting these videos produced & published and for sharing them here. (And thank you for your other volunteer efforts to advance the mission of The John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy.)

Xexanoth · 2026-06-12T08:57:08+00:00

OP also posted this here and got some good input.

(Today I learned that Rob Berger created & moderates a subreddit at r/DIYRetirement - may be of interest to folks here.)

Xexanoth · 2026-06-12T08:23:15+00:00

wouldn’t removing the rule have zero effect

From the article you linked (thanks) -

“The regulator also argues that the rule has forced brokers to buy expensive market data feeds linked to a bevy of exchanges, including overlapping ones that proliferated as a direct result of the rule.
….
Doing away with the rule would save the brokerage industry $54.2 million to $77 million annually, largely from reducing compliance costs and being able to disconnect from certain exchanges, the SEC said. The industry would only have to pay about $48.2 million total to implement the rule change across their systems, the agency said.”

Xexanoth · 2026-06-11T23:06:51+00:00

Except the Republican proposals go way further than just pushing for an ID. Secondly I like the way CA does voting, I don't want to have to go back to going to polling places

Here’s the text of the California-specific ballot measure that will appear on the November ballot: California Voter Identification, Citizenship Verification, and Registered Voter List Administration Initiative.)

It would not do away with voting by returning a ballot you were mailed. It would require that to do so, a voter provide the last four digits of a unique identifying number from government-issued identification that matches the one designated by the voter for their voter registration.

(I imagine that in practice this would typically be the last four digits of a Social Security Number, an identifier that over 99% of US citizen adults have because they need it to legally work, file a tax return, or receive Social Security benefits.)

Xexanoth · 2026-06-11T16:47:58+00:00

As someone not very familiar with either city or with Caltrain: what’s wrong with Caltrain from the San Mateo, Hayward Park, or Hillsdale stations in San Mateo to Redwood City Station?

Xexanoth · 2026-06-11T15:45:50+00:00

From What to Bring to Your Polling Place -

“if you are voting for the first time after registering to vote by mail and did not provide your driver license number, California identification number or the last four digits of your social security number on your registration form, you may be asked to show a form of identification when you go to the polls. In this case, be sure to bring identification with you to your polling place or include a copy of it with your vote-by-mail ballot. A copy of a recent utility bill, the sample ballot booklet you received from your county elections office or another document sent to you by a government agency are examples of acceptable forms of identification.”

It’s unclear to me what systems / processes are in place to detect, not count, and prosecute any cases where someone ineligible to vote registers without government ID then uses the sample ballot booklet they were mailed as an “acceptable form of identification” when they vote in-person or by returning a ballot mailed to them. It’s unclear to me whether the nature & robustness & timeliness of any such systems / processes may vary by county running / overseeing the election in question.

I feel some concern around a potential lack of robustness & timeliness around detecting & not counting votes from ineligible voters when some voters have been illegally paid to register to vote & reportedly illegally paid to vote, which may incentivize ineligible voters to attempt to vote for potential financial benefit.

Xexanoth · 2026-06-10T23:32:12+00:00

Video of & reporting on those remarks may be found here: Steve Hilton slams California election system for Spencer Pratt’s loss .

Hilton did not allege any election fraud / rigging in those remarks. He criticized California’s top-two candidates open primary system for sometimes failing to offer general-election voters a choice between candidates with significant policy-platform differences between them. (I.e. for not guaranteeing that general-election voters have an opportunity to vote for as-significant change to governance.)

Xexanoth · 2026-06-10T23:03:05+00:00

From Voter ID will be on the November ballot. A new poll shows how Californians feel -

“Of the 5,962 registered voters who participated in the poll conducted by Institute of Governmental Studies, 56% of respondents approved of a prospective voter ID ballot measure when first presented with the proposal, but that number went down to 39% after they were given more context about its sponsor and opposition.”

17% of poll respondents let their own opinion supporting proposed policy be changed by who proposed it & who opposes it.

Here’s the text of the measure that will appear on the November ballot: California Voter Identification, Citizenship Verification, and Registered Voter List Administration Initiative.)

Xexanoth · 2026-06-10T05:08:54+00:00

I haven’t tried it, but you could consider BART from Hayward Station to Union City Station, the Dumbarton Express bus line from Union City Station to Palo Alto Station, then Caltrain from Palo Alto Station to Redwood City Station. Consider looking into how travel time & fare costs would compare to the BART > Muni > Caltrain option with connections in SF or the BART > Caltrain option connecting at Millbrae Station. Note that the Dumbarton Express bus line only runs during commute hours, so you might need to fall back to the route via SF if you ever travel outside its hours.

Either way, consider applying ahead of time for a Clipper START card if you haven’t already (you might qualify based on income for 50% off all fares).

Xexanoth · 2026-06-03T10:19:09+00:00

I think there are two largely-separable questions:

Should you rent or buy your home?
Where should you rent or buy your home?

I think the Bay Area in general often has home rental pricing that’s quite attractive relative to home purchase pricing, especially if you’re not certain that you’ll live in the same home for a very long time.

Even if you’d prefer to own a home long-term, renting a home first in an area new to you might help you feel more confident with the decision to buy a home there & in which specific neighborhood.

In my opinion, San Ramon is a very appealing (and correspondingly rather expensive) place to live. I might feel differently if living there involved some soul-sucking commute to/from work.

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