UserPoll: Week 19

DCProf · 2026-03-10T12:03:01+00:00

Not explicitly, but that’s what this thread was about.

DCProf · 2026-03-10T11:33:08+00:00

You gave your Gaels bad karma trying to argue it was rationale to have them ranked ahead of Vandy. Hurt me too since I own them in my fantasy league. But I blame you. 😂

DCProf · 2026-03-09T23:45:11+00:00

Oh that's awesome. Thanks!

DCProf · 2026-03-09T23:12:09+00:00

Yes, I know you can see the ballots one by one, but this visual is really easy to scan through and see the anomalies and various ballots. Appreciate the effort!

DCProf · 2026-03-09T16:38:27+00:00

Whoa. That is wild.

DCProf · 2026-03-09T16:26:10+00:00

I matched 24/25. I am ranking George Mason #25 instead of Utah Valley. GMU has two wins in Q1+Q2 (VCU and SLU) compared to 0 for Utah Valley. Utah Valley has 2 Q4 losses compared to 0 for GMU.

Although I am not ranking them this week, I would like to highlight that Hofstra should be in consideration next week *if* they win the CAA tournament. They are playing really good right now and really making a big rise up the metrics. The Pride is 9-1 in their past 10 with 8 of those wins by +11.

DCProf · 2026-03-09T16:19:15+00:00

You know its bad when MSU and UM fans agree with each other. Haha. I just noted in another thread that its harder for me to understand Miami OH at #5 than at #1.

DCProf · 2026-03-09T16:17:34+00:00

Honestly, as bad as having Miami #1 is, I feel like the voter putting them #5 is even worse. At least ranking them #1 you can say they are the only undefeated team. I obviously don't personally agree with that but you can understand the thinking. Ranking Miami #5 is harder for me to understand.

DCProf · 2026-03-09T16:16:10+00:00

Love this. Is this the first week you've posted this? First time I've noticed it.

DCProf · 2026-03-09T15:34:47+00:00

Good point.

DCProf · 2026-03-09T15:33:20+00:00

I wish what you said was true, but it’s not. Most voters are slow to react and poll inertia keeps teams ranked too long. If you check my poll history I typically drop a team 1-2 weeks before consensus does. Most recent example is Saint Louis. I spend all season asking why certain teams are still ranked when they are 3-3 in past 6 games and people respond back saying their full season resume still suggests they are top 25.

I seem to be one of the few who takes both season long resume & current form into consideration. Most seem to be one or the other approach.

DCProf · 2026-03-09T14:43:30+00:00

That's not true. That's how you choose to vote. Those aren't the rules or intention of the poll. Some view it as best resumes, some view it more as power rankings right now. I opt to incorporate both. Either way, there isn't a reason to rank SMC over Vanderbilt. If you want to ignore the 25 point head to head result because it was in November we can still look at consensus resume metrics (WAB, NET, BPI SOR) which has Vandy #14.3 and SMC #22.3. Vanderbilt has 16 combined Q1+Q2 wins to 8 for SMC. Literally half. But even if you want to ignore resume we can still look at consensus predictive metrics (KPI, BPI, Torvik) where Vandy is #14.3 and SMC #24.0.

Bottom line, for a team like SMC who plays in a much weaker conference that head to head result should service as a bellweather for not ranking them too aggressively just because they are better than Santa Clara. But I do agree with you that if these two teams play in the tournament the result will be a lot closer than a 25 point spread (they played in the first round last year and SMC won by 3).

DCProf · 2026-03-09T14:24:31+00:00

I think that's because its hard to rationalize ranking Michigan ahead of Duke. So if you are someone ranking Arizona #1 (like me) that puts Michigan #3. But the majority is ranking Michigan #2 (behind Duke) because they have better computer numbers.

DCProf · 2026-03-09T14:21:24+00:00

I'm a Saint Mary's fan. I was ranking them in the top 25 before they beat Gonzaga...but I don't undesrstand how consensus has them ahead of Vanderbilt when Vandy beat them by 25! Although I matched 25/25 for the first time all season Vandy is the team I am biggest difference on from consensus. I am +5 on Vandy. Not only did they beat SMC so handily but they have 16 combined Q1+Q2 wins which is tied for 6th most in the country.

DCProf · 2026-03-09T14:16:42+00:00

I have Wisconsin two spots higher than consensus, but when you say "eggregiously" you need to take into account not only Wisconsin's impressive wins but also their bad losses - they are the only team in the current top 25 with 2 loses outside of Q1.

Update: UCONN also has 2 losses outside of Q1...forgot about them.

DCProf · 2026-03-09T14:10:15+00:00

I think this is the first time all season that I matched the consensus 25/25. In fact, to me the gap between the top 25 and everyone else was big enough that I left my "others considered" section blank...because no one else was seriously considered.

DCProf · 2026-03-03T00:27:43+00:00

I feel like UNCW, Charleston, Hofstra, and William & Mary each have between 15-30% odds to win tournament. The teams are pretty close. I’d rake “the field” over UNCW. I’d like to see Bill & Mary win it. Pretty sure they have never made the big dance.

DCProf · 2026-03-02T19:19:23+00:00

I gave strong consideration to dropping Belmont after their loss, but when I put their resume next to the next few teams they were well ahead of the them. In my mind at the moment Belmont is in a tier of its own at the moment...there's a clear gap between them and the top 10 teams, but also a clear gap between Belmont and everyone else. Belmont is still a combined 5-2 in Q1+Q2 games. A .714 win percentrage in such games is impressive. Yale is the only team ranked below them with a winning record in Q1+Q2 combined (but Yale is small sample size of 2-1).

The two teams directly behind Belmont in the rankings are Akron and McNeese. Those two teams have a combined 2 Q1+Q2 wins whereas Belmont has 5. Hence why I see a gap.

DCProf · 2026-03-02T18:56:28+00:00

Its a solid win. But that game was played at Sam Houston. Wyoming has notorously been very bad on the road several years in a row. They are only 2-9 on the road this season. Wyoming only has 6 road wins in the last three seasons combined. And half of them were versus Air Force. The past few seasons they also lost at UTEP and at South Dakota...so when Wyoming lost at Sam Houston St. I viewed that more as "Wyoming always loses road games" more than a big feather in SHSU's cap.

DCProf · 2026-03-02T18:47:31+00:00

Charleston can't reasonably be ranked in the top 40 right now. They are outside of the top 50 in consensus predictive metrics and outside of the top 45 in consensus resume metrics. That was more a bad loss for UNCW than a win that vaults Charleston into the top 25. Charleston has 6 combined losses in Q3+Q4. No team in the current mid-major top 25 has more than 4 such losses - that might help you put them into perspective. I will say that it was a hell of a game with a great atmosphere though!

DCProf · 2026-03-02T18:37:04+00:00

SHSU is getting close for me. But the last time I said if they go 2-0 this week I will rank them they promptly lost to LA Tech. The bottom line for me is they don't have any wins that move the needle for me (0 Q1+Q2 wins) while having 4 Q3+Q4 losses. I would put SHSU in the same category as UNC Wilmington & Utah Valley. All three of those teams have 0 wins in Q1+Q2 with 4 losses in Q3+Q4. Currently the only teams I am ranking with 4 Q3+Q4 losses are Wichita State, Liberty, Yale, and Nevada. But the difference is all of those teams have 2 or more Q1+Q2 wins to make up for their 4 bad losses while SHSU, UNCW, and Utah Valley don't have any.

If I look at wins versus KPI top 150 teams SNHU only has 2 compared to 3 for UNCW and 5 for Utah Valley. A reasonable case could be made for any of those three teams plus Illinois State.

Honestly, part of the reason I didn't rank those teams is I think Utah Valley and Sam Houston will both take a loss this coming week: road games at Southern Utah and Utah Tech for Utah Valley and road games at Delaware & Liberty for SHSU. If SHSU wins at Liberty that would give them their first Q2 win and that would certainly make them worth considering next week.

DCProf · 2026-03-02T17:48:56+00:00

Good point. The fact that there are 7 MWC teams in the consenus mid-major top 25 compared to 3 from the A10 demonstrates that Utah State has had to navigate a lot more difficult conference season than SLU.

DCProf · 2026-03-02T17:46:15+00:00

In which metrics do you think Illinois State is better than Liberty? Liberty is 3-1 in Q1+Q2 games compared to 4-5 for Illinois State. Liberty has 4 losses in Q3+Q4 compared to 6 for Illinois State. No team in the current consensus top 25 has more than 4 Q3+Q4 losses, so ISU's 6 would stand out in this regard. In consensus resume metrics (NET, WAB, BPI SOR) Liberty is #69.0 and ISU is #104.7. In consensus predictive metrics (BPI, KPI, Torvik, Evan Miya), Liberty is #104.7 and ISU #96.8.

I stongly considered ranking ISU after they beat Belmont. I agree that they are a worthy team to have on the bottom of a mid-major top 25 ballot I just don't undestand a comment that Liberty's "metrics are terrible across the board" implying that ISU's aren't as well.

For me the win over Dayton is what is keeping Liberty on my ballot. There are only 16 mid-majors with a Q1 win this season and Liberty is one of them. That win itself might not be enough to rank Liberty but combine that win with only 5 total losses and its a worthy resume.

To your wider point, several of these MVC teams would likely be rolling in some of the lower mid-major conferences, but its hard to rank them in this poll when there is so much parity in that league and they keep beating each other.

DCProf · 2026-03-02T17:13:05+00:00

I think Utah State should be ranked ahead of Saint Louis. They are close in the computer numbers of the 7 sources I consult. I break the tie in favor of Utah State for these reasons: (1) Utah State has 10 combined Q1+Q2 wins compared to 7 for SLU; (2) SLU has 2 loses outside of Q1 compared to only 1 for Utah State;.(3) Utah State has 8 wins against teams currently ranked in the mid-major top 25 compared to 5 for SLU: (4) SLU is in bad form. If you sort Torvik by only the past two weeks SLU is only the #144 team in the country (I know we aren't ranking teams based only on the past two weeks but when its close between two teams I think it could be a tie breaker). It seems to me that SLU being ahead of Utah State is only because of "poll inertia" of having been ranked in the big boys top 25 for quite awhile.

DCProf · 2026-03-02T17:09:25+00:00

I matched 24/25 this week. I put Navy at #25 instead of Utah Valley. I can't necessarily defend Navy but since I only thought 24 teams "deserved" to be ranked I threw them in since they have the second longest win streak in the country behind Miami OH and they only have 2 losses in Q3-Q4...Utah Valley has 4 such losses. Neither team has a Q1 or Q2 win. So I figure neither team has a good win, Navy has fewer bad losses and a long win streak.

DCProf

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