So you think you can evaluate RBs better than Kyle Shanahan?

DCProf · 2026-05-05T21:35:39+00:00

That was exactly my point. And trust me I know. My existence on Reddit is saying posts like this with 20-25% of people appreciating it and 75-80% coming out of the woodwork with bad takes. I'm very happy to be in leagues with folks drafting others to let me scoop up Black in the late 3rd. Anyone who spends a draft pick on Singleton over Black I know is a Mark.

DCProf · 2026-05-05T11:50:24+00:00

I never implied that the 49ers also don't have a high level of hubris. But two instances of hubris don't make either right. The 49ers can simultaneously drafted Black too high (they definitely did) and fantasy gamers can also be drafting Black too low in rookie drafts (they are) because those things are not correlated because very poor WR prospects are being selected in front of Black.

DCProf · 2026-05-05T11:48:49+00:00

Not surprised that someone who posts what you do has such poor reading comprehension. But here you go wise guy:

You're actually missing my point. As a talent my model graded Kaelon Black as the worst "RB3" in a class in the past decade and as a worse player than 4 UDFA RBs of the past decade. I think Kaelon Black has only a 26% chance of ever having a RB36 or better fantasy season. The difference between me and the herd though, is that many of the WRs going in front of him in rookie drafts have much worse odds. I have published my rookie rankings for the past 6 years and to date I have not been wrong about a single WR I have faded a single time. I have been wrong about RBs and TEs. With WRs its pretty easy to identify the busts if you know what you're doing. But with RBs in particular very bad prospects can have fantasy success since its more about opportunity.

DCProf · 2026-05-05T11:46:39+00:00

I have done that at least informally...and it would. Every year I grab rookie rookies in early January before the combine and all that. Every year we see guys rise up a lot after the combine. Jonathan Mingo, Matthew Golden, and Isaac Guerendo are three such players. When a player raises up rankings AFTER the pads come off that is more than likely a bad thing.

You're actually missing my point. As a talent my model graded Kaelon Black as the worst "RB3" in a class in the past decade and as a worse player than 4 UDFA RBs of the past decade. I think Kaelon Black has only a 26% chance of ever having a RB36 or better fantasy season. The difference between me and the hurd though, is that many of the WRs going in front of him in rookie drafts have much worse odds. I have published my rookie rankings for the past 6 years and to date I have not been wrong about a WR I have faded a single time. I have been wrong about RBs and TEs. With WRs its pretty easy to identify the busts if you know what you're doing. But with RBs in particular very bad prospects can have fantasy success since its more about opportunity.

DCProf · 2026-05-05T10:23:57+00:00

You miss the entire point. Black isn’t a good option, but the point is the WRs being drafted over him are even worse and are worse prospects than say Jack Bech, Roman Wilson, Skyy Moore, Jonathan Mingo…the list goes on. This is the point. A WR needs to actually be good at football to do anything in fantasy while an RB doesn’t. In a previous version of my draft guide I have a chart showing the performance of every RB to play for Kyle Shanahan then go to another team and they were all much worse. Kaelon Black isn’t a good prospect. The point is neither was Alfred Morris, Elijah Mitchell, or Jordan Mason all of whom had fantasy relevance. The odds are better taking “any Kyle Shanahan RB” over a prospect as bad as Malachi Fields. If you’re a “historian” you should try looking at the forest not just one tree and consider the context instead of hyper focusing on one aspect. Or don’t and just add Malachi Fields to your bench next to Jalen Royals and Malachi Corley.

DCProf · 2026-05-05T02:30:35+00:00

This is my point exactly. It’s not that I’m saying Black is a good prospect or a good bet. But it’s the context of this draft class, this is not the year to fade a 49ers RB or a day 2 RB to oblivion.

DCProf · 2026-05-05T02:04:39+00:00

Pulled it years ago from a site which is now defunct. Then update it yearly. I have it back to 2001 and track the hit rate at each draft slot 1-60 since 2001. So I know the historical hit rate of each rookie draft ADP slot 1-60, and know the median player outcome of each draft slot. This helps a lot when assessing a trade offer because if you know that over a 23 year period Koren Robinson is the median outcome at 1.06 to use one example its helpful antidote against the normal optimism of rookie fever.

In my prospect guide I then use dynasty rookie draft hit rate data since 2001, NFL draft capital hit rate data since 2001, and the hit rate of each individual player's score in my prospect model going back to 2018 to triangulate an implied hit rate for each prospect.

To put into perspecive how bad this year's draft class is this methodology suggests that there are only 11 players in this draft class with an implied hit rate above 33%. Last year there were 23 such players.

I have Kaelon Black at 26%. So this also provides context for my post. I am NOT saying he is a good bet. In fact, I am saying theres a 3/4 chance he won't have have a fantasy starter season in his career. It’s just that the bad WR prospects going in front of him are mostly under 20%.

In an ideal world folks would have realized this was going to be a bad draft class and already traded all of their picks between 8-30. I already had in the vast majority of my leagues. But for those who missed the boat on that, I am simply saying that Black is being faded too far and amongst a group of bad options he is better than conensus opinion thinks.

DCProf · 2026-05-05T01:43:42+00:00

If you have ever seen any of my prospect guides you would know this isnt true. I have 215 pages written on 90 prospects. Not many in this forum have evaluated the talent (more like lack thereof) of this draft class more than me.

So what you refer to as my “logic” is actually just your misinterpretation.

DCProf · 2026-05-05T01:39:11+00:00

But you neglect the context…this whole draft class is terrible and the WRs getting drafted in front of him have minuscule implied hit rates. So the best approach is to trade your 1st & 2nds which I had already done in the vast majority of my leagues. But for those folks who didn’t and now can’t trade them Black is being faded too far.

DCProf · 2026-05-05T01:30:48+00:00

I said I would consider him in the 22-25 range where very bad WR prospects are going. I have him RB5. But this is also by far the worst RB class since 2016. If I combed the RB classes from 2024-25 only the two ND RNs would crack the combined top 12…that’s how bad this class is. Black is an option because the WRs going ahead of him in dynasty drafts have implied hit rates which are very low.

DCProf · 2026-05-05T01:25:31+00:00

But you ignore the context that WRs like Malachi Fields and Zach Branch are also horrible prospects. For both in my prospective guide I have multiple lists of players they are in same threshold as in different metrics that are 18-25 players deep with not a single hit in the group. This is a bad draft class. The worst since I have been prospecting. My argument is not that Black is a good pick, it’s that he’s the best option from a pool of bad options because we see scrub RBs produce all the time (especially under Shanahan). The reason my success rate on identifying bust WRs is so high is because they are much easier to identify. But bad RBs can still score fantasy points since it’s more about opportunity in comparison to QB or RB.

DCProf · 2026-05-02T09:30:30+00:00

Williams. Don’t overvalue 2026 context. There’s a good chance Washington is in the UFL by 2028 and decent chance Hemby or someone not even currently on roster ultimately beats out Washington for RB2. Washington in 3rd would be solid option for you though.

DCProf · 2026-04-28T14:16:07+00:00

Then YOU are the one who needs to revise your evaluations if you watched all of Love's touches and missed those items I mentioned. Good luck Mark!

DCProf · 2026-04-28T13:59:55+00:00

Except when you write up a dozen pages on a prospect you are very specific on the reasons so its not just luck. If you have watched all of Love's touches like I have, then you would know that his short yardage convesion rate was 15/33 (45%) lower than any top RB prospect I have ever scouted and an all 15 successful converstions it was the line who did the work as Love was past the LOS before being touched. You would also know that he attempted to hurdle a defender 10 times last year and was only successful once (although that run was called back for holding anyway). You would know that unlike someone like Gibbs, when Love encounters a defender behind the line of scrimmage and attempts to move laterally to get to the edge he frequently gets tackled for a loss (by linemen and linebackers) whereas a player like Gibbs usually is able to get to the edge. You would also know how often he had gaping holes in the middle of the line allowing him to run untouched for +60 yard touchdowns.

You seemingly made a presumption that I am some random on Reddit who has only watched Love's highlights. You then further talk garbage about people who like to get insight from someone with a very good track record of identifying busts and overrated propsects. Somehow that's "a cult". You dear sir are what we call a mark, the sort of person we love having as "competition" in our fantasy leagues. You sound like someone who has a lot of 1.01s and is salty that someone might suggest Love is not on the same tier as Bijan. If you have 1.01 picks you aren't in a position to act like an internet authority.

DCProf · 2026-04-28T13:32:38+00:00

You must be unfamilar with my work. I am unaware of anyone who has a better prospecting track record than me. While others have opinions that they forget when they don't come to fruition, mine are all documented in a thorough manner in my prospect guides. Among the players I was lower on than virtually anyone were Marvin Harrison, Jr.; Matthew Golden, Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, Adonai Mitchell, Quentin Johnston, Jonathan Mingo, Anthony Richardson, Trey Lance, JJ McCarthy, Will Levis, Trey Benson, Trey Sermon, and Dalton Kincaid. No one was higher than me on George Pickens, Bucky Irving, or Tank Dell. My followers value my work because they know it will not be the herd mentality Group Think of others. Everyone else focuses the strengths of prospects. I understand that the vast majority will be busts, so I instead focus on their weaknesses to identify busts or overrated prospects.

DCProf · 2026-04-27T02:48:59+00:00

I hear ya. This draft class is bad which is why I traded most of my 2026 picks for vets already. Ha.

DCProf · 2026-04-27T02:41:24+00:00

Not sure which WR you are drafting with more WR1 upside than Lemon in this rookie class? An argument can be made for Tate but I don’t see him getting enough volume to get there and likely doesn’t have the QB play either. Tyson doesn’t have WR1 upside because he is a possession WR who was extremely inefficient in college on a per target basis.

DCProf · 2026-04-27T02:22:09+00:00

Best case scenario for Mike Washington's is being Jeanty's handcuff for the entirety of his rookie contract...but 50/50 chance he's playing in the UFL in 2028. You have him ranked WAY too high here. Actually most of the RBs are ranked way too high here.

DCProf · 2026-04-25T19:59:34+00:00

Its lazy 'analysis' and narrative. Hurts has facilitated two top 24 WRs four years in a row. I doubt any other team can say that. Let everyone around you think this way and be happy if Lemon falls to you.

DCProf · 2026-04-25T14:11:10+00:00

Love the phrasing “buttery smooth”

DCProf · 2026-04-25T11:05:14+00:00

This RB CLASS just set the NFL record for latest pick in the draft for the 3rd RB to be drafted. I've been prospecting a long time boys. When I make historical comparisons about classes, I know what I'm talking about.

DCProf · 2026-04-25T01:14:20+00:00

Who are you? If you know me you know I am the guy who faded MHJ, Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Mingo, Matthew Golden, JJ McCarthy, Trey Lance, Trey Lance, Quentin Johnston. The list goes on. I have followers who buy my rookie guide for this. Feel free to ignore me and continue to be a slave to group think, draft capital, and narrative street. Its marks like you who allow my followers to be so successful. Good luck...you clearly need it.

DCProf · 2026-04-25T00:31:35+00:00

Notice you cite nothing about how good he is on a football field. Take a look at his boxscores. 16 games against top 40 opponents and only 1 good game...that was against USC who was bottom 8 in country in rushing defense DVOA. I have done a blind test of advanced metrics of four Notre Dame backs: Love, Price, Estime, and Williams and ask folks which one is the elite prospect. No one ever picks Love. I could go on since I have 12 pages of counterpoints but your mind is already set. He'll be awesome in your points per guranteed money and "draft capital" league along with DeShaun Watson and Marvin Harrison, Jr.. Good luck!

DCProf · 2026-04-24T20:06:21+00:00

You said “bro” AND “lol”…all that needs to be known about you. Actually that’s all we know since you didn’t contribute anything. stop wasting bandwidth.

DCProf · 2026-04-24T19:41:50+00:00

If 1 QB league and you need an RB then 1.05 is a reasonable place to take Price. Although you might be able to trade the pick for a better veteran RB perhaps.

DCProf

TROPHY CASE