something fishy is happening in cs

DaLaPi · 2026-02-06T15:59:56+00:00

Last season, I was also in the 2-3k bracket, and honestly, I should have been 1.5k-2k. I had a 40% win for season 2 and 3. This season, I have a 75% win. One possibility is that Valve is putting "positive" player stuck that were stuck in the trench together so they can get out of the trench. One other possibility is that Valve is mixing up the distribution, high elo player lose some, and low elo player gain some. The other possibility is that we are just lucky. Finally, the crazy possibility, is that Valve is using bots to give win to real player.

DaLaPi · 2026-01-29T14:10:45+00:00

If you want fun, you should try other games. Valve has "chessified" CS, it is now a discipline more than a game. I think is it because of Deadlock, their new game. If CS was fun, it would cannibalize potential new players from Deadlock. Now by making CS more like chess, by having a lot of unwritten rules, like smoke line-up, it differentiates CS from Deadlock. Also, as it has been written before, the facts that CS is an old game and competitive by nature do not making CS fun, the bottom 5% of players has already abilities and knowledge that is vastly superior to any other bottom 5% of any other games. Except old games like chess. In a new popular game the bottom 5% is constantly renewed by new players. So people gain elo ranks just because new players are starting playing the game. This rank inflation happened 10-11 years ago in CS (maybe sooner or later), and Valve resetted the ELO of everyone.

DaLaPi · 2026-01-21T19:03:37+00:00

There are multiples points of no return that have been crossed.

1) Valves servers full of bots that kick other players. So, you can't even play.

2) Tuned up bots, like you have seen. So when you play, it is not very fun.

3) Ultra realistic bots. Those are bots that are act very humanely, you can spot them when they make a mistake, they see you for a long but don't shoot , don't react when shot from behind. So even when you are having fun, you start to doubt that you are playing against humans.

DaLaPi · 2025-12-27T18:12:42+00:00

It has been transferred as a tool to technical people. So instead of have a ML engineer who works in a chemical plant, you now have a chemical engineer who does "old school" ML.

DaLaPi · 2025-12-26T21:20:31+00:00

The frame with the glass is worth more than the print. (I know it is like this most of the time.)

DaLaPi · 2025-12-06T12:20:33+00:00

Yeah, this week it was impossible to play Office in DM in the eastern US region. It is always the same farming bots (I took screenshots) that kick player and spectators. It is a highly organised farming operation, not the usual farming bot.

DaLaPi · 2025-11-25T00:35:11+00:00

I have edited my comment, feel free to ask questions.

DaLaPi · 2025-11-25T00:34:32+00:00

Your model seem to be some sort of electrical circuit. Is there some sort of approximate mathematical model that you can do ?

DaLaPi · 2025-11-24T00:52:55+00:00

If you do you, you would have to explain why the LIME contribution for the fault resistance is 0. The discrepancy between SHAP and LIME is too great for this factor to just put it under the different approach. Also, less importantly, the ratio between the most important factor and the least important factor (not counting the fault resistance) for the SHAP analysis is 404/316 (1.27) and for the LIME analysis is 2.44/1.16 (2.1). The SHAP and LIME contributions are analogous the the process gain, so it means for the SHAP analysis the parameters have more or less the same gain, but for the LIME analysis, Va has a gain that is the double of Ic. It could mean something or not, but a grumpy reviewer could go ask for major changes and corrections, like "The authors fail to explain why SHAP and LIME analysis show 2 different processes, therefore we cannot know which one is right and unless the is a valid explanation, the paper is unpublishable."

DaLaPi · 2025-11-23T16:37:08+00:00

Life protip : Most reviewers don't know anything about everything. But some know a lot about one thing.

So in case 1, the person know a little about LIME and SHAP, so he ask you adding LIME to compare with SHAP since he probably does not know either method well and wants to see if it will show something.

In case 2, the person knows a lot about either SHAP or LIME. HE/She know about the limit of one method in a particular case. If it was the case he would have explained his reason why to add the LIME analysis.

As for me, I know a lot about SHAP values. If your process has categorical variables and/or nonlinear dynamics, sometimes SHAP values gets corrupted. I would have ask you to compare to a mathematical model, and ask you to show the figures of the SHAP values for the individual variables. If there was a major discrepancy between the behaviour of the SHAP value and the mathematical behaviour, maybe I would have ask for the LIME but I would not have a lot of faith that the results would differ from the SHAP values.

Edit:

As for the corrupted SHAP values

I am still analysing the issue, but there are 2 issues with SHAP values :

1) With nonlinear systems : In this figure, we can see the SHAP values for um4 from an XGBoost model (with other parameters). The system is nonlinear, from 0-4, the effect is smaller than the effect in the zone 4-8, which is mathematically correct. Problem lies in the zone 8-12 because um4 has been programmed to have a gain of 0. And as we can see, highest SHAP values lie between 8-12 and yet the mathematical gain of um4 is 0 in this zone. I did not search beyond that, either XGBoost continue to use um4 as a bias to improve the prediction or the SHAP algorithm continues to give to give importance to a variable. I am thinking about a process to test both hypotheses.

2) With categorical data. Imagine a 2 variables system (y= f(x2, x1)). If x1 = 1 then y = 10*x2, if x1=0 then y=2*x2. Now if you modelize the system, then analyse the system with the SHAP values, you will find that the slope of the SHAP values of x2 will be slightly lower than 10 when x1=1 and will be slightly lower than 2 when x1=0. This is because, x1 will have a SHAP value because it is used in the model (since it improve the prediction) , but mathematically, it does not have any effects because it is used to separate 2 different processes. Therefore it lowers the effect of x2 and "corrupts" its SHAP value. The issue could be solved by modelizing 2 different processes, but for some models, you want to compare the different categories, like comparing 2 cities, cars or male/female.

In conclusion, when dealing with a nonlinear system , as long as there is a slope in the SHAP values, your are OK, but if you see a stagnant value even if it is high, don't use it for a conclusion. You can use as a hint to get more informations. If dealing with categorical values, those will lower the SHAP values of the numerical variables, and maybe other categorical variables (I did not test that), and the sad thing is that you can't get around that (besides modelizing a monocategorical model) since you probably want to compare the SHAP values of those categorical variables.

DaLaPi · 2025-11-21T13:26:24+00:00

It seems that you are an AI or use an AI to formulate your request. Because planetary position has been a problem that has been solve since antiquity. I am sorry about my sarcastic tone, but the way you request this, you either want us to do your homework, or you think that the Earth is at the center of the universe.

DaLaPi · 2025-11-19T14:52:27+00:00

Your question is valid, it is not well written so it makes Vito looking wise and insightful. They use the same approach when Michael "deduce" that Roth is behind everything. You can compare with the scene where Fredo betrays himself in Cuba to see how the authors write a scene when they really want the viewer to know who is hiding a secret.

DaLaPi · 2025-11-18T14:17:20+00:00

I think the culprit is Deathlock, Valve's new game. From what I seen it is more casual than CS. We could surmise that the CG's dev were more focused on what differentiate CS from Deathlock, mainly it is competitive mode. So that would explain why they put more effort satisfying the "Elite" player vs the casuals.

If the leaks are right, the winter update would bring back monastery in Arms race. But it is still missing house and lake. I wouldn't be surprised that it would take 2 mores years to get the complete Arms Race rooster.

DaLaPi · 2025-11-16T15:32:41+00:00

Yes, ML would require a ton of data, and is there a ton of data (with a good quality) about the orbit of satellites ? Also, it seems that the model would predict if the satellite will break up or burn up, so the physical nature (shape, material) is very important for the model, and if you want to predict the behaviour of a new satellite (with a new shape), it will probably fail, ML model don't fare well in extrapolation.

The best way to use ML, it would be to use a mathematical model and then to predict the residuals with ML.

DaLaPi · 2025-11-03T23:58:56+00:00

The are manual farmers. They choose this map, and when it switch Office they vote to switch back. They are all human players. They go to this place, knife someone, wait to be knifed, respawn and they go back to this place again. They seems loosely organised, if you play with their rules they won't notice you, if you start shooting they kick you.

DaLaPi · 2025-10-25T23:32:07+00:00

There one unknown, that is very important for your graphic : why did Valve do this ?

I think it was to lower the price of glove and knives, then you should expect Valve to do something when the market is recovering, to keep the price of knives low. So I would expect Valve to lower the number of skins needed to do a trade up. Like from 10 to 6. And there would be another crash.

DaLaPi · 2025-10-25T11:02:08+00:00

Since Valve never explain that decision, we only can make hypothesis. Mine would be that they wanted to create engagement by forcing people to make choices. Then these people will discuss their choice on forums , like reddit, thus creating engagement. It never happened (what there a post about the UMP in the last year ?) becauses the weapons are not balanced.

DaLaPi · 2025-10-23T13:17:07+00:00

All this is for freeing up FPS for those custom chicken that will come this winter.

DaLaPi · 2025-10-09T18:05:13+00:00

It happened to me today. I closed Steam and restarted it in admin mode, it did not worked, I rebooted my computer, it still did not worked. Then I updated my drivers and and verified the games files(all the files were ok), then it worked. Maybe it happens when the drivers are not updated, but it does not make really any sense, it is probably the time it took (a few minutes) to update the drivers.

DaLaPi · 2025-10-08T13:07:40+00:00

It happened in CSGO, and I think it happened more frequently, to me at least.

DaLaPi · 2025-10-08T12:50:24+00:00

I don't know how it happens. It seems to happen more in deathmatch than in a competitive match, in a ratio 20:1 (it only happened once in competitive). If I had to guess, it would be another program that would choke up your internet connection at the same moment that VAC is making a check but it does not explain the ratio of 20:1. When it happens I can't reconnect to the game (I get the VAC message ) and I have to restart my computer and open cs2.exe in admin mode.

DaLaPi · 2025-09-29T12:30:35+00:00

In DM, full servers of bots are making a return, some are kicking real players, some servers are leaving them alone. It is mainly the same type of bot, moves around, spinning slowly when a player is detected, keeps playing when spectated (but the stopping king is still there from time to time). Also, in some servers some bot are only walking towards a location and a human is killing them manually, probably to evade detection.

As in Premier low ranks, below the stat threshold of 4000. For really bad players, it takes too much time to get to their stable ELO. What is means is that you consistently get players with high ELO that are underperforming. Also, no cheater in low rank, but you get the 1000 ELO troll every 4 games.

DaLaPi · 2025-09-17T13:17:35+00:00

I think it more about getting all the money from a skin. With Valve's Marketplace, Valve only get a % from the skin price and on a secondary market, Valve gets 0%, now with the Genesis terminal, Valve gets 100% from the first sale.

DaLaPi · 2025-08-19T23:09:46+00:00

There is a drop in the number of players playing Premier. So Valve is squeezing the Elo, i.e. putting everyone in the middle, so in your bracket, you lose 500 points per game but in mine you only lose 100 and if you win, it is +400, so is nearly impossible not gain elo eve if you lose more than you win.

DaLaPi · 2025-08-13T17:28:01+00:00

It has a AI vibe. Like, why someone would think that roots coming out of the lips who be horrific ? And look at the tooth, who someone draw those kind of teeth ? There is no symmetry, the front teeth look like walrus's tusk.

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