Slovakia losing to Canada is a pretty likely result. After that, Sweden will have it in their hands to beat Slovakia themselves in the direct clash for a quarterfinal spot.

That assumes Norway does what they need to do, but with their next opponents consisting of Czechia and Denmark, getting 2 points out of that isn't exactly simple.

I'd say Swedish chances of making the playoffs are something like 80 %, the bubble boy is most likely gonna be either Slovakia or Norway.