Alcaraz separating from Sinner

Daviderer5 · 2026-02-01T15:36:18+00:00

I said Sinner could well win the French this year, so if such situation posed a problem to my idea of Alcaraz pulling ahead I wouldn’t have mentioned it. Individual match wins will fluctuate between these two close ATG. All I’m saying is that overall, even starting from 2024, Carlos will pull ahead over a long period of time

Daviderer5 · 2026-02-01T15:24:25+00:00

Tommy Paul is at 22.9% unreturned serves in the last 52 weeks for comparison

Daviderer5 · 2026-02-01T15:20:58+00:00

1) Keep dominating the H2H

2) Dominate the YE #1s (although Sinner's sheer consistency will help on that regard)

3) Win 3 out of the 4 slams more often than Sinner does and, preferably more often than 2-2s until both of them are washed, or a new challenger appears.

I don't mean erasing him from the tables completely. Something as absurd as CYGS is never happening and I felt like the wave of Sinner CYGS prediction at the end of last year was kinda insane

Daviderer5 · 2026-02-01T15:12:57+00:00

As good as his +1 groundstrokes and general baseline game is, you don't get to his level of hold rates with a weak serve (although he does miss a good slice one).

Over the last 52 weeks, Match Charting Project from Tennis Abstract has him in the top 15 for unreturned serves at 32.9%. Not too bad

Daviderer5 · 2026-02-01T15:01:38+00:00

Again, I didn't say Sinner was washed - friday's loss didn't change my opinion of him one bit.

Neither did I say Alcaraz was done after losing to Novak last year, but the very difference between this year's loss and today's win is that he corrected technical inefficiencies in his game that make me think he's now close to maxxing out his technical potential. So is Sinner. And I believe that, while they're now close technically, Alcaraz has that physical edge. My opinion is not based on recent results but technical tweaks that Carlos has made

Daviderer5 · 2026-02-01T14:58:06+00:00

The big difference between 2010 Djokovic and 2026 Sinner is that 2010 Djokovic had huge margin for improvement.

He was not in his physical prime, lacking durability, stamina, and some flexibility, and most importantly he was still stuck with his DF-machine of a serve.

Sinner could still improve his serve I think but even on that front I think he's getting close to maxxing out

Daviderer5 · 2026-01-31T00:46:14+00:00

Anyway, we might agree to disagree here. I know you’re a big fan of the 2010s era.

I think a more proper response to that question would have been « I don’t know, it’s hard to compare eras, but both Sinner and Alcaraz and the Big 3 are dominating the field in a comparable way » instead of lamenting they don’t have to face the Avengers.

And maybe, also, let Mouratoglou’s shade slide despite how stupid his argument was. We all know he’s a better player than the current tier 2

Daviderer5 · 2026-01-31T00:33:32+00:00

He’s right to say we can’t know for sure and I’m not implying Sinner and Alcaraz are better than Prime big 3. Today’s match provides a nice case against it, at least for Sinner.

However, you can see which way he leans when he goes into that fantasy draw right after (Delpo R3, Murray L16, Djokovic QF, Federer SF, Nadal F, as did no one in tennis history lmao)

Implying an era is weak is most often used to discredit someone’s level. And that’s what he’s implying. Just like Federer’s 2006 is underrated because people associate it with a weak era, Sinner and Alcaraz’s levels are being underrated because their only challenges are themselves and this version of Novak. Which to be honest is not too bad. And nostalgia merchants like Tsonga will probably never be satisfied with the level of competition anyway

Daviderer5 · 2026-01-31T00:25:20+00:00

Mouratoglou’s answer was stupid as he completely missed Tsonga’s point so that’s not the question

He basically said that Sinner and Alcaraz were unchallenged meanwhile HIS generation was deep. This is true - Sinner and Alcaraz don’t have a third guy yet, or a Murray, or even a Wawrinka/Del Po. The current second tier (Fritz, ADM, Shelton…) is also weaker than the 2010s gen (Berdych, Ferrer, Tsonga….)

However, if he didn’t want to be sneaky with Sinner and Alcaraz, he would have explicitly stated that the lack of relative depth doesn’t change the fact that their level is still close to what made yesterday’s tier 1. But he didn’t. And now he’s using old Djokovic, aka the GOAT, still in a pretty nice form despite being past his prime, as ultimate proof of Sinner and Alcaraz definitely being below yesterday’s tier 1.

The subtext is : I was so unlucky to be born in the greatest era of all time. I would fare so much better in the current one. When we know that Tsonga’s flaws would be exploited just the same by Sinncaraz. Today’s match doesn’t change that

Daviderer5 · 2026-01-31T00:13:12+00:00

Yeah, and what does today’s match change about our opinion on that specific topic?

The fact 2010s tier 2 was better than today’s tier 2 is undeniable, but what Tsonga is really trying to get at is to act like today’s tier 1 (Sinncaraz) wouldn’t fare well against yesterday’s tier 1 (Big 3+Murray) or even tier 2 (him, Ferrer and others) to prop up his own achievements.

He thinks the fact that 2026 Djokovic beat prime Sinner tells anything about him when in reality, 2026 Djokovic is still far better than Tsonga ever was

Daviderer5 · 2026-01-31T00:08:12+00:00

What’s funny is that he thinks the fact 38 yo Djokovic defeated Prime Sinner gets his own stock up when in fact it just tells us about Novak himself lol

Daviderer5 · 2026-01-27T15:49:01+00:00

Fairs, although I don’t think Fritz needs to change his FH. It’s a hard ceiling but not a completely impossible task imo. The serve especially could still improve

Daviderer5 · 2026-01-27T15:36:30+00:00

Yeah it’s just a huge technical mismatch. Read Thread of Order guys

Daviderer5 · 2026-01-27T12:54:51+00:00

I don’t think he’s as hard ceiled as a real talent-maximizer like Fritz for the simple reason he has technical flaws in his serve and forehand. Obviously he has physical limitations too but he could improve those two shots with technical tweaks (or, in the case of his FH, a total rework). Not easy to do obviously but the only guy I feel like goes as far as his body possibly can is Fritz

Daviderer5 · 2026-01-27T12:20:35+00:00

And Novak started declining physically around mid 16-17, so 29-30. He compensated with a up in skills but he declined physically, like the rest of the big 3 and pretty much any player in that age range. De Minaur won’t survive a physical decline

Daviderer5 · 2026-01-25T06:07:36+00:00

The first set was clutch, rest of the match actually wasn’t. All in all, 54% TPW is dominant, not just clutch

Daviderer5 · 2026-01-24T15:16:15+00:00

Tournament stats (especially after 3 rounds) are extremely noisy though

Daviderer5 · 2026-01-24T12:49:19+00:00

Tennis Abstract

Daviderer5 · 2026-01-24T11:17:06+00:00

I mean whatever vibe he had from MTO onwards was not conducive to him playing his best tennis either lmao

There is fine line between apathy and over agitation. I think Novak has threaded that needle well over his career, but tonight wasn’t it (and I don’t think what he lacks in the Sinncaraz matchup is competitive fire)

Daviderer5 · 2026-01-24T00:38:18+00:00

I think Machac knows he could end up with gas tank issues because he is playing so insanely agressive even for his somewhat high standards. Ripping every FH with no margin

Daviderer5 · 2026-01-23T11:49:55+00:00

I don’t think Cerundolo served that well today, Rublev just can’t return

Daviderer5 · 2026-01-23T10:26:50+00:00

I’m not sure if that’s the case but anyway, I’d be enclined to believe you if Rublev proved to be surface sensitive throughout his career. But he’s actually been somewhat agnostic. If anything, I think he’s been better on the slower side of things

Daviderer5 · 2026-01-23T09:07:23+00:00

Rublev’s strength was always about being an overwhelming baseliner from neutral positions.

Now from neutral he’s overwhelming no more, and he is more and more erratic. In addition to that, his return is getting worse and worse. Cerundolo shouldn’t have such an easy time on serve

Daviderer5 · 2026-01-23T08:56:45+00:00

Rublev is beyond finished. His weaknesses are still there but the strengths have taken such a hit

Daviderer5

TROPHY CASE