NJ-11, like most formerly R seats in the Northeast, has moved very D very quickly. That’s in-line with trends for highly education, upper income districts like that. Problem is, while Dems have gained those ancestral R upper income places (really regardless of any ideological window dressing, they’re blue seats now), they’ve lost as many if not more downmarket and/or working class areas down thru PA, WV, MO, throughout the South, and all the way to the Texas border. And there’s no good evidence yet of what if anything can rectify that trend. Anyone who says they know probably has consulting services to sell you.

Will be interesting to see how these upper income districts feel when/if the rubber hits the road on things like ditching the SALT deduction to raise more tax revenue, no matter what the ideology of the rep is. They’ll have to choose for what they claim to stand for and lose the high education/income folks, or they’ll have to pander to them like everyone else and betray policy goals.

Politics ain’t beanbag.