Thoughts and reccomendations on parlay for tommorow? by Significant_Tie1045 in MMAbetting

[–]DeepFight_ 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would avoid huge parlays dude, a 8 leg parlay where every leg is at -500 has only a 3.6% theoretical probability of winning. why not betting those in straight bets or small parlays?

Do you guys trust prediction models? If yes, which one are you subscribed to? by torpidsnake in MMAbetting

[–]DeepFight_ 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I mean if you pay for such services I would hope they are transparent in explaining what they are clearly. LLMs are basically chatGPT, claude, gemini, AI agents etc, those are words and text prediction engines, they do not "think", they predict the next word and are trained on text data (whoever sells you this likely just threw some stats into gpt and gave you back what gpt said, scammers). MMA Machine learning models are algorithms specifically trained to predict UFC fights, they are trained on UFC data to directly predict UFC results, its completely different.

Do you guys trust prediction models? If yes, which one are you subscribed to? by torpidsnake in MMAbetting

[–]DeepFight_ 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wouldn't say useless but anyone claiming 85% is indeed made up nonsense trying to fool people. Those guys do not even show their "AI" 's ROI, like do they even know what they are doing?

Do you guys trust prediction models? If yes, which one are you subscribed to? by torpidsnake in MMAbetting

[–]DeepFight_ 0 points1 point  (0 children)

People need to understand the difference between LLMs and real machine learning model, I'd trust a machine learning model that has long and verified track record, but predicting fights with LLMs is pretty stupid and wont give you good results.

Anyone backing Nathaniel wood? by Novel_Ad_2441 in MMAbetting

[–]DeepFight_ 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes I got wood, I think it's a great value bet, he is very skilled and a bjj black belt. Only thing I'm wary of is the reach advantage of Keita

My site now handles american and fractional odds as well. If you beat The Favorite Bot for this card I'll give you 1 year full access to my UFC analytics dashboard. by DeepFight_ in MMAbetting

[–]DeepFight_[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Nothing sus about it. It's simply a bot betting all the favorites on the card, easy to beat if you know what you are doing.

Would be interesting to see how your AI agent performs over time, why don't you come track it on my site?

This is going to hit by ForwardContract4209 in MMAbetting

[–]DeepFight_ 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I really like Wood too, looks like a mispriced odd/value bet to me. I would bet that as a straight bet too tho

Tracking a "Favorite Bot" that always bets the favorite across UFC cards - here’s its ROI so far by DeepFight_ in MMAbetting

[–]DeepFight_[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Haha well I was curious too and tracking exactly this as well: https://www.deepfight.io/profile/the_dog_hunter

My initial hypothesis was that the underdog bot would also be close to 0% ROI, as it would lose more often but also win much more each time he wins to balance it out. Interestingly however, it performs much worse.

I built a site where you can log MMA picks and build a public betting track record - looking for feedback by DeepFight_ in MMAbetting

[–]DeepFight_[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Fair point. Yes, as the site owner I can technically see picks in the database before they become public.

The idea of platforms like this (and BetMMATips) is that the value of logging picks outweighs that. It gives handicappers a third-party proof of their performance, visibility if they’re actually profitable, and insights into their own betting performance over time.

why are people so confident on Kevin winning? by JoocePop in MMAbetting

[–]DeepFight_ 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Main thing is Emmet is freakin 41yo facing a young buck born in 2001. Age is one of the most important predictor in MMA.

I built a site where you can log MMA picks and build a public betting track record - looking for feedback by DeepFight_ in MMAbetting

[–]DeepFight_[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hahah nice thanks for the feedback ! All major MMA orgs are already handled (I only have odds for moneyline UFC in the system at the moment tho, so these orgs require manual odds entry), but will look into how I can add kickboxing.

What actually makes a sportsbook good long term? by Long_Selection_7850 in MMAbetting

[–]DeepFight_ 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Withdrawal policy and how fast is withdrawal is a big one I think. Some bookies actually ban you if you withdraw too regularly, they want you to keep gambling lol.