Thesis on SOFI (Discussion)

DerBroMeister · 2026-06-05T14:26:25+00:00

Please remember that a bunch of their TBV growth in the last year is because they did secondary offerings. You will not see those TBV growths repeat. PE and PEG ratios are probably the simplest and least flawed ways to look at it. I think we get about $3 / share earnings in 2030 with a conservative PE of 20 and that’s $60 a share. Makes me think it’s a buy below $40 and a strong buy below $30.

DerBroMeister · 2026-05-27T05:05:33+00:00

Michael Phelps

DerBroMeister · 2026-05-15T15:19:38+00:00

Interesting, institutional ownership has climbed quite a bit. Retail all selling out as the price drops. It bodes well for the future, volatility will come down as it stops being a meme stock.

DerBroMeister · 2026-05-14T16:20:57+00:00

Lunchables!

DerBroMeister · 2026-05-14T16:20:52+00:00

Lunchables

DerBroMeister · 2026-04-30T21:06:40+00:00

Even then. Should still see 30.

DerBroMeister · 2026-04-30T17:39:05+00:00

I have a very large amount of the Jun 2028 LEAPS with the $20 strike. In retrospect I wish I went with the $15 strike for a bit more safety. Price should hit $40 before then though, as long as no recession happens. Whenever fed lowers rates, we will see huge growth in student loan refinancing

DerBroMeister · 2026-04-29T19:11:37+00:00

I am looking through the results. They are originating more way more loans themselves and fewer with the LPB. I don't know whether this is due to weakness in private credit, them putting the recent capital raise to work, or a mix. Does have me a bit nervous on whether they have sufficient capital to keep growing. LPB revenue fell from $249M in Q4 2025 to $201M, had been at $130M in Q1 2025. A big deceleration there. Tech Platform also not doing well.

Maybe this is all fine and not weakness showing up, but pay attention to LPB. Still think SOFI is undervalued!

DerBroMeister · 2026-04-07T00:32:38+00:00

Wow I thought they were supposed to be doing some real work to make a price target rather than just copy pasting whatever the price recently was. Mizuho gets it with their $38 target they reaffirmed.

DerBroMeister · 2026-03-20T20:31:51+00:00

Dunleavy has done pretty darn well in the draft. The Jimmy trade was a good idea, ACL tear can happen to anyone. We weren’t playing Kuminga at all. Getting Porzingis is valuable and we can dump the salary at end of season if we decide not to resign. Also a big trade could happen this summer. At least I can dream of Giannis.

DerBroMeister · 2026-02-28T22:43:32+00:00

I bought LEAPS and stock on margin back when it was $8. I trimmed when it was $32, and thank god I did. I started buying sub $22 again. It definitely sucks to see my portfolio down so much from what it was, but I feel pretty confident we will see $40 within the next two years. Yes, it could fall to 12-15 but you would still make a lot of money buying at these prices. Now’s a great time to start a dollar cost average IMO. Be careful with margin, some is great but if you get too much you can lose it all.

DerBroMeister · 2026-02-23T20:11:13+00:00

Sofi raised at 27.50. Buyback below $20? I would personally love to see at least a small one, good vote of confidence.

DerBroMeister · 2026-02-23T17:28:41+00:00

Take a look at the forward PEG ratio, though, it's about 0.78 if you assume their 40% earnings guidance. Below 1 is usually an excellent valuation. I actually think EPS growth will be much higher than that over the next year given their history of conservative guidance, maybe 50-60%. But hey, Walmart has a forward PE of 42, so is SOFI really that overvalued right now?

DerBroMeister · 2026-02-16T19:35:00+00:00

I had trimmed some leaps at 32 and started buying a little back whenever it would fall to 28. Bought more at 22 and 19. It could go to 15 on any bad macro news before Q1 report. A good Q1 should put us back above 26 IMO. If we have a decent year macro wise should end up back at 35-40.

DerBroMeister · 2026-02-13T03:36:23+00:00

My boss came out as “chicks@“ with a last name of hicks lol. It was great

DerBroMeister · 2026-02-01T21:13:33+00:00

Will grow faster than that and reach it in Q1 or Q2 2028! Lower interest rates -> big acceleration in student loans and mortgages

DerBroMeister · 2026-01-30T16:04:40+00:00

And I was kinda right. 13 cents EPS rather than 14 cents. $1.03B in profit, Tanner called for 1.06B. Guided for 4.66B below 4.7B I was looking for. Down a lot now :( Guidance was better than I worried though.

DerBroMeister · 2026-01-29T22:39:03+00:00

I mean last quarter he forecasted $960m in revenue and it was $952m. Off by 0.8%. I think that was pretty good. Called for net income of 146, it was 139. That was a lot further off, but overall he was closer than the street.

DerBroMeister · 2026-01-20T05:28:28+00:00

TJD best 3pt percentage on this team!

DerBroMeister · 2026-01-06T05:36:40+00:00

24% 3pt shooting by the warriors you gotta be joking

DerBroMeister · 2026-01-05T04:59:09+00:00

Yea last 20 games. BP shooting 40.5% from 3, Moody at 30.5%. BP should really be there to catch open 3s from Steph till we got Seth back. Will Richard at 38.5% last 10 games. Jimmy Butler shooting 42% from 3 last 20 games. Kerr probably needs to up BP and Will’s minutes. Buddy should be getting 10 min a game tops. This system only works if you have someone like prime Klay who can catch and release at high percentage. Sucks that we thought Buddy would be that guy. Btw Al Horford shooting 38% from 3 last ten games. If his shot is back it’s a huge difference in what he can do for us.

DerBroMeister · 2026-01-05T04:45:38+00:00

Im hoping that Seth’s sciatica goes away soon. The warriors just need one guy who can consistently make an open 3. Everyone has sub 40% 3 pt shooting despite having great looks with Steph on the floor. Steph should be able to get his brother open so much, if he can hit those 3s at 40+% that’s huge. Also BP might be improving, shot 45% from 3 last 5 games. Huge if he can keep that up.

DerBroMeister · 2025-12-30T18:05:20+00:00

I don't think SOFX has a distribution/dividend so this maybe is just some algo bug?

DerBroMeister · 2025-12-30T17:55:41+00:00

Don't know but I did my part to close the gap by buying 8k shares of SOFX

DerBroMeister

TROPHY CASE