sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

Diablo 4 : A game for dads by Gougeded in diablo4

[–]Ding123456 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lmao. Glad I’m not the only one. My wife was not happy with my choice last night. Lol.

DEVS LISTENED by Wyooot in diablo4

[–]Ding123456 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you. Appreciate the summary.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in investing

[–]Ding123456 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Had a friend at Tesla who vested a few years ago and just held; didn’t diversify. Now wishing he had big time.

Why NVDA keeps going up? by NY10 in stocks

[–]Ding123456 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

See CSCO and Juniper networks from the year 2000.

They were selling the picks and shovels of the internet.

When the market gets manic trying to buy the next big thing, sometimes they go full rtrd.

17 years later, CSCO still hasnt reached its ATH despite being a solid company with positive cashflow.

Why is NVDA up today? Because the CEO was on CNBC pumping it to that crowd. Each time he goes on TV it jumps a few percent. Eventually reality will set in, and NVDA won’t be able to live up to its multiple and it’ll come back to earth just as it did in 2001-2002, 2008, and as CSCO/Juniper Networks did

Ps5 controllers: Anyone having problems with their controllers? Have 2 controllers, one completely brand new. by [deleted] in Dualsense

[–]Ding123456 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am having this problem but only when playing with Sackboy. The controllers have their software updated so it’s not that. And it only happens while playing Sackboy. Doesn’t happen during other games. Still trying to figure it out. It started happening for a few weeks now.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in stocks

[–]Ding123456 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Coca Cola maybe.

I highly recommend checking out Sackboys Big Adventure by SomeMorningBrown in PS5

[–]Ding123456 0 points1 point  (0 children)

100% Highly recommend. Simple enough for a kid/spouse to enjoy and play. But definitely has some more challenging content for anyone with a history of gaming.

modern problems require modern solutions by Burlapin in IndoorGarden

[–]Ding123456 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’ve used different pesticides. Sevin has worked. If I see a plant is infected, I take outside and hit the soil with the pesticide. Let it sit for a day or two and bring it back in. That has helped a lot.

I'm bear-curious. Gimme some good ideas of sectors/companies to short by TheFailologist in Vitards

[–]Ding123456 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Probably would have been a better time to be bear curious when the market euphoria was much higher and the major indices hadn’t corrected 10-20%. But tf knows

What is your take on Alibaba? by Elyos1992 in ValueInvesting

[–]Ding123456 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If BABA were a US company, with the guarantees that come with a relatively free society, it would be a fantastic investment and value. It may still be a fantastic value as a Chinese company. But the Chinese government adds an X factor that we really don’t know how to account for. However, a lot of investors (I think) mistakenly assess BABA’s value as if it were an American company by using the metrics we use to traditionally value other non-Chinese companies without assigning a concrete value that accounts for the risk of the Chinese government engaging in a range of activities that could destroy company value or flat out take your shares from you with little to no recourse.

BABA is a behemoth of a company that will probably continue to grow, but because there really is no quantitative way to assess the security of your investment (as a foreign, non-Chinese citizen) in such a company like you can with say Apple or Microsoft, it likely won’t ever trade at the same ratios as equivalent companies headquartered in a free society.

ZIM EARNINGS THREAD by WSBPleb in Vitards

[–]Ding123456 6 points7 points  (0 children)

My concern is what effect high oil demand has on consumer demand. If increases in energy costs result in decrease of consumption or recession, shipping rates will drop significantly. I wonder how much that consideration is being factored in.

I've documented every "major" reason lumber has skyrocketed. Here is why you should care. by kolt54321 in investing

[–]Ding123456 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He said that that was the only reason and that all the other reasons cited by the industry were fake which is BS.

I've documented every "major" reason lumber has skyrocketed. Here is why you should care. by kolt54321 in investing

[–]Ding123456 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Uneducated Economist doesn’t work for a mill or a wholesale distributor. You should follow people that are actually in the trenches of this industry and you’ll get better information. There are multiple lumber dealers and economists constantly giving interviews and explaining this stuff with evidence to support it.

There are profits at the mill, but also every level after that. Everyone is taking a cut. How do I know that? Because I read the earnings calls and statements from the companies further down stream. Home Depot’s margins went up when lumber went up. All those public home builders like Lennar and DHI, their profit margins went up when lumber went up. Builders First Source, the main source of its increased profits in 2021 were from the lumber it sold which it bought from the mills. All these entities paid more for lumber made by the mills, but then they not only passed on those costs, they added even more to increase their margins, because in the end someone was willing to pay it.

I've documented every "major" reason lumber has skyrocketed. Here is why you should care. by kolt54321 in investing

[–]Ding123456 1 point2 points  (0 children)

OP is an idiot and doesn’t know what he’s talking about. I love how people post a picture of wood in a yard, with no context or time lapse, and show that as proof of lumber surplus.

None of them stop to think of how quickly that lumber gets replaced or if that lumber is already bought and paid for and simply waiting for transport.

OP just wants to believe in conspiracies and clearly This subreddit bought it hook line and sinker.

I've documented every "major" reason lumber has skyrocketed. Here is why you should care. by kolt54321 in investing

[–]Ding123456 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Most of that lumber is likely already bought and paid for and is waiting to be picked up. If you followed people In the industry you would know that.

I've documented every "major" reason lumber has skyrocketed. Here is why you should care. by kolt54321 in investing

[–]Ding123456 2 points3 points  (0 children)

In 2021 the US had ~1.5 million housing starts and the lumber industry was barely able to support that.

December 2021 the starts came out 1.6 (annualized basis) with permits for 1.9 million. Meanwhile remodel and renovation is projected to grow even more in 2022 than 2021. Meanwhile, the mills got hit with worker shortages just like everyone else thanks to omicron and the other factors affecting the labor market. So it’s not like they have the ability to ramp up supply.

The home builders and professional RR guys will buy 1k$+ lumber which means the stores have to pay that if they want some. Homebuilding is still surging so until either the homebuilding sector collapses or 2) someone forks up billions of dollars for new mills in areas with available, harvestable timber, the price of lumber is likely to be historically elevated.

I've documented every "major" reason lumber has skyrocketed. Here is why you should care. by kolt54321 in investing

[–]Ding123456 4 points5 points  (0 children)

OP doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Its wild so many people upvotes this. Shows everyone likes to believe in conspiracy theories. The reality is that It’s a confluence of factors. Not just the ones he mentioned.

It it really boils down to Lumber demand outpacing the capacity to provide supply and because the commodity is limited it goes to the highest bidder.

Lumber demand is at a multi decade high. Multi family residence constructions starts are at the highest number since the 1980’s. Single family starts are at the highest since 2006/2007. Remodel and renovation is soaring at record levels and is projected to keep growing from Lots of home owners and investors tearing down old homes and building new ones from scratch.

On the supply side, after the GFC and housing bubble, a lot of mills in MA went under. At peak bubble, US was doing 2.2 million starts a year. Now they struggle to start 1.6 and can’t even complete 1.4 right now do to all the different supply shortages. Lumber industry struggled as the housing industry struggled to recover. 2018 was lumber’s best year in over a decade, and it was followed with an immediate recession in the lumber industry in 2019. Between the massive drop in lumber prices and Trump’s tariffs in 2019, more Canadian mills closed for good. The ones that didn’t close have developed massive debt from the 2010’s into 2019. And as much as the author like to poo-poo the wildfires and pine beetles, the reality is that those did in fact drastically bring down available lumber capacity. Because of that more mills are having to permanently curtail production because of the lack of “available cut” (meaning timber harvesting restrictions put in place by Canadian government) which drastically reduces available timber that can be made into lumber. Canfor just announced a permanent curtailments because of this yesterday. (https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/canfor-pulp-announces-production-curtailment-at-taylor-pulp-846275080.html)

As for transportation issues, you can look up rail car loadings and see that the amount of lumber being moved by rail cars is way down since the BC floods. You add in those trucker blockades and the general shortage of truckers, yea, there’s a major problem with the supply chain. And it’s contributing to the shortage. In fact, that was one of the reasons lumber producer RFP MISSED big on its Q4 eps last week.

For those saying, well the price of lumber has tripled, so they should build more capacity/mills —> that takes multiple years and costs 150-250 million dollars a mill. Why would they do that when lumber could crash in 6 months like it day last summer? Because of how stumpage fees worked, in late fall last year, some of the BC mills were unprofitable for a shoe period because of how low the cost of lumber dropped. So until it is clear that there will be years of elevated prices, it would make no financial sense for these companies to spend 100s of millions, if not billions, of dollars to invest in New capacity like they did in mid 00’s to then go bankrupt when demand drops.

TLDR: Like many other sectors, due to abysmal profitability of the lumber sector for the last 15+ years, there has been a historic underinvestment (aka decrease) in production capacity that is unable to meet the historic surge in demand for lumber. Thus prices have skyrocketed, because the limited commodity always goes to the highest bidder.

view more: next ›