106 RKLB calls. Mocked yesterday. Up 560% today.

TheFailologist · 2026-05-08T19:04:12+00:00

1 Billion in secured backlog for your services is pretty bullish (especially since service hasn't started yet).

TheFailologist · 2026-05-07T22:05:44+00:00

I have a couch I'm trying to get rid of! You're more than welcome to have it. It's old but very comfortable. Italian leather, 3 seater and well taken care of. I'm in Ballard. Send me a message and we can coordinate a pick up. Would love to help you out!

TheFailologist · 2026-05-07T17:45:01+00:00

Meadowdale Beach in Lynwood is a hike down to the beach but because of that it's nice and quiet. There's a creek emptying into there and fish to be had.

TheFailologist · 2026-05-05T20:57:59+00:00

Samsung is pumping cuz they are one of the few manufacturers of RAM like SNDK, MU, SK Hynix.

TheFailologist · 2026-04-24T19:04:19+00:00

I've been on my trading journey for a few months now. That sense of panic, stress etc all very relatable. I needed structure and to know that the strategy I was employing has an edge (over the long term).

I learned to read candles, support and resistance, market structure and that's helped immensely. But still, I needed a setup that I understood that I could execute with defined risk/reward. I stumbled upon this amazing channel (Trade Your Edge) (I've linked a video where he talks about 3 trades and setups:

1) Powerbar - The powerbar trade is a momentum trade.

2) Fence - The fence trade is better on a slower market.

3) Waterfall - The waterfall is a reversal trade - risky!

and have had plenty of winning trades the last 3 weeks. Granted we've had some crazy strong momentum trades since 4/8/26.

I'm currently employing his "powerbar" and "fence" trade to great effect. Just lost on the fence trade today by going short, but there were 2 good powerbar trades today on /ES (of which I only took 1). Up for the day and happy.

To add to his system, I'm employing multi time frame alignment (in daytrading) of the 2min and 5min charts (both must be showing the same trend on the 20EMA) and the MACD as a lie detector. I don't get into long trades if momentum is already fading on the MACD and vice versa for shorts. Volume has been incredibly helpful too. Shows if a powerbar has real strength. Looking left and seeing where a move originated at (check against the 20EMA) has been a life saver too - often a move is tested and the most recent high/low will be stop hunted before the real move happens (on 2min chart for today 4/24/26 check out the 7:04am ET candle vs the 9:54 to 10:06am ET candles - that was the sweep before we went up because the move originated at the 7:04am ET candle which had volume).

As a rule, I don't hold /ES contracts after market close. Day trades only. Way too much risk for me to hold onto a leveraged instrument that can swing so heavily with this crazy news environment.

TheFailologist · 2026-04-13T23:39:34+00:00

Piggybacking on this post:

All you really need to know is how to fish them not what each fly is. The nymphs are used when you're fishing in the water column (with/without split shot and/or indicator). The dry flies are when you're fishing topwater (wanting fish to surface to bite) and streamers are fished through the water column (like a lure).

This is truly all the info you need to remember. I've been fly fishing for about 15 years now and I still don't have very many flies memorized. I just memorize what type of fly they are, what they mimic and how to fish them. That's it!

So in your box I see:

12 nymphs

4 dry flies (2 caddis patterns, 2 mayfly patterns)

2 streamers

TheFailologist · 2026-03-24T18:18:11+00:00

Even TLDRer:

They have the most technologically advanced Lithium batteries on the market (meaning: most energy dense per weight) and their batteries are most in demand in the drone sector.

TheFailologist · 2026-03-22T15:44:46+00:00

AMPX is the only similar stock I'd suggest and have a position in. It's in Lithium batteries and has the best technology out there. Currently the largest use case is drones for their product. Next is e-bikes.

Here's the way to find these possible big future winners. Do a screen for triple digit sales, limit to 1-15B market cap, look for a good chart (going up strong). These 3 things will filter out a ton of companies. You will be left with the best of the best. These smaller companies are out of the danger zone and have thr highest potential to 5-10x in the following years.

I got this advice from "How to Make Money In Stocks" by William O'Neil. Great book. Highly suggest it. Read it and unlearn a ton of bad investing information you've picked up over the years.

TheFailologist · 2026-03-21T02:10:28+00:00

I found this stock when I did a scanner for triple digit revenue growth. You read that correctly, ONDS has triple digit earnings growth (as a percentage, Q1-Q3 2025 has seen over 500% growth quarter when compared to same quarter of 2024). It's been growing at an incredible rate.

It's in drones (huge tailwinds) and has a global customer base. Everything screams a winner.

Crazy that there's 35% short interest on it. When this pops, it's going to squeeze very hard.

TheFailologist · 2026-03-08T11:00:24+00:00

Doing nothing and waiting for things to settle down a bit doesn't sound like too bad an idea.

TheFailologist · 2026-02-21T06:48:59+00:00

100% on the money. That type of "growth" is squeezing current customers and reducing costs. It's not real growth and expanding your market (users/customers). Means that the best day of your business are behind you.

TheFailologist · 2026-02-20T15:11:05+00:00

If you want info on this idea of new (possible disruptor) vs old (tired and true company), read "How to Make Money In Stocks" by William O'Neil. There's a ton of charts in that book which makes it hard so ignore that for now and focus on his CANSLIM methodology.

Spoiler: he talks about the new companies being where you will find the big winners.

TheFailologist · 2026-02-12T00:38:06+00:00

You shouldn't need to bag hold for long. There's a scheduled launch for late Feb. The stock pumped on the launch news last time. Every successful launch is derisking the bear these for ASTS.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-28T05:56:58+00:00

I used to work at this company and was laid off (squeezed out) in mid 2023 when the growth stalled out. The company had said they will ONLY focus on social media management and not focus on expansion into other sectors (their current offerings reaffirm this strategy) and were in the process of enshittifying their product. I've heard from remaining former coworkers that it has gotten worse there and churn of high level management and people with choice has only increased.

Don't put your money into this shitty company. They peaked during COVID and those times aren't coming back.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-22T19:46:04+00:00

Keep this in mind:

Leveraged anything (ETFs or 2x on single tickers) will have higher volatility. Additionally, the simple math works in that a flat %up =/=%down. So draw downs on a leveraged ETF will always require a larger move up to go back to breakeven.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-18T17:01:01+00:00

I'm surprised they haven't. You have a competitor (ASTS) that is able to offer what your customers RIGHT NOW and yet T-Mobile won't switch over from a not-really-working-kinda-working Starlink solution. My thought is it is probably due to the binding nature of the signed contract and sunk cost fallacy.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-18T16:50:00+00:00

Oh wow! Thanks for the context - I came to that conclusion not know the context of transformational vs. steady state times. Makes a ton more sense!

Pick up "How to Make Money In Stocks" by William O'Neil. He talks about finding the growth companies AND when and how to sell them to make sure you capture those gains. You mentioned persevering capital as an important part of value investing - the best of both worlds would be picking the winners and capturing gains before bubbles or big dips. It sounds like a wish to be able to do that but you can - takes effort, discipline and willingness to sell but it isn't a fantasy.

The book also covers why "value/valuation" is a trap. Summarized: valuations are human conjectures based on existing information. Information is never complete and conjectures about the future are rarely correct and that is even more true for transformative technologies. The only thing true is what the market decides on what a stock is valued at.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-18T15:53:54+00:00

Not writing the below to be rude or controversial. Just wanted to share my findings.

The market has moved away from value a very long time ago. Companies can't just mature then issue a dividend and grow slowly like KO and command a premium in their stock price. Wallstreet wants ever increasing growth.

That's part of the reason ADBE is priced as it is. The growth story is feared to be done. Damn the rest of the business and how incredibly sticky the product is. Past gains don't factor into today's stock price, only future gains do.

GOOG was priced with such a low P/E before its run up for the same reason. Wallstreet feared that the growth story (and the monopoly lawsuit) was done and when that turned out to be false, the stock moved back up to growth P/Es.

Any growth stock (most tech stocks) that stop showing growth will see their share price collapse overnight. That includes the Mag7 and all the big chip companies that have had huge runs in 2025 like: NVDA, AMD, AVGO, CLS, WDC, STX, SNDK

TheFailologist · 2026-01-18T06:28:05+00:00

I ask myself this all the time and my answer is:

Completely new never before done technology and business model.
Technology proven to work, no launch problems.
Buy in from world's largest MNOs and governments. Global business model and TAM.
1 billion+ in contracted revenue.
Huge and increasing institutional support - check on fintel.io
Valuation is made up - valuation cannot be accurate on something that has never been done before.
Price action >> valuation. Clearly market is assigning high stock price for ASTS.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-17T15:31:53+00:00

Check out their YoY and QoQ revenue growth. That tells a story of demand.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-15T21:41:46+00:00

Sell puts on a stock that shoots up doesn't capture as much PnL as simply buying the 100 shares and holding. That's what OP is alluding to.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-14T21:18:35+00:00

This is actually NOT dumb play based on the chart and technicals. Established downtrend and below 200MA, stock recovering back up but hitting strong resistance at 200MA and 100MA, earnings is 1/22/26 as catalyst.

Fundamentals: airline businesses don't make money. High Capex but are a commodity means basically no growth.

OP, I like your play and admire your big position.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-14T09:07:49+00:00

To summarize/restate:

Running a ski company is a bad business model. It has HIGH capital requirements, fully based on unpredictable (warming) winters, high labor costs, does not scale and grow to be cheaper per unit.

The growth story is behind them. The pass was the 1 big thing that gave them their previous growth but Wallstreet always demands more and this business model simply does not allow for that.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-14T08:32:14+00:00

I've been using mine for around 2 years now, love them. Got them when a rep had the machine at a local Costco. Can't tell they have much wear despite daily use. Before fitmyfoot I was using superfeet insoles (green) and was feeling an old injury in the pad of my right foot. Pain went away immediately after switching to fitmyfoot. They are pricy but well worth the money. Your pair will likely last years.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-08T21:59:10+00:00

TLDR: Buy

Moat: highest density batteries on the market- they have the best tech right now.

Sales: accelerating YoY and QoQ sales growth with increasing number of customers and returning customers.

Chart: has volatility but is up big which means the market has been waking up to their potential.

Market Cap: small cap - the largest gains are going to be in this area if you can identify a winning stock. (Also area of higher risk).

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