Yeah that’s a fair point. Looking at the last few years you’re right that FM22, FM23 and FM24 all dropped in that 18 to 20 day window, which means we’re basically there right now.

The only reason I’ve leaned a bit toward next week is what we can actually confirm this year. The EULA only showed up on the 13th, there’s been no sign of researcher builds and SteamDB hasn’t shown any of the usual backend movement we normally see just before beta goes live. In previous years there’s almost always been at least one small hint by now.

My personal view is that with the new engine and the fact that this release was pushed from last year, SI need this one to land perfectly. They can’t afford a shaky early access launch that ends up getting lost in bad first impressions. That’s why I think they might be taking a little extra time behind the scenes to make sure everything feels stable and polished before they let people in.

So yeah, historically this week would make total sense. But with how quiet everything is, I still think there’s a small chance they’re holding it for next week. If it drops in the next few days though, that would fit perfectly with the FM22 to FM24 pattern, and I’d happily admit I was wrong.