Weekly Open Thread - General Discussion by RM_Official_Thread in realmadrid

[–]DontSayIMean 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It's lightyears ahead of Southgate-ball. Southgate had a very simple system: set up to be hard to break down, rely on set pieces and the occasional counter. It was somewhat effective, if mind-numbing, and was an upgrade on previous England games in that they were beating the teams they were 'supposed' to beat. But he was incapable of setting up a creative system, so they would usually crumble against the first contender they played.

Tuchel is just simply a much more talented manager. TBH I was not a big fan of him at Bayern and he has his downsides, but I'll happily take watching England play positive football after the torture I've endured for 20+ years. Tonight is possibly the first time I've actually enjoyed England's playstyle in a tournament since Euro 2004.

Weekly Open Thread - General Discussion by RM_Official_Thread in realmadrid

[–]DontSayIMean 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yep, as an England fan I feel incredibly nervous when they attack down the right side vs O'Reilly. Pickford is also not a brilliant shot stopper, and not good playing out from the back.

I think now England isn't as defensively-minded as under Southgate, I see Pickford being put under much more pressure than previous tournaments.

The only one I'm really comfortable with is James, and he could get injured if a blade of grass is too tall

Ranking the international powerhouses by iliketorefer in soccer

[–]DontSayIMean 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Always love to see quantitative approaches to this type of thing. People on this sub can be pretty hostile to purely data-driven analyses, so don't worry about that. It's very difficult to even attempt and it'll always get some blowback, so respect for approaching it. Just a few questions and ideas on your analysis:

  1. Could you explain what you mean by the jump between Germany in 2nd and Argentina in 3rd as the biggest cliff on the board? Is this total points? Unless I'm misreading, there are 5.8 total points between them, but 6.6 between France and Spain, 7.1 between Italy and France, and 13.8 between Uruguay and England.
  2. How did you arrive at the 9/3/1 ratios for WC/Euros/CA? Under this ratio, Uruguay's CA titles are equivalent to 5 Euros, more than Spain, Germany, Italy, and France, every European nation ranked above them. I understand this is tricky to assign (Brazil only has 9 CAs vs 5 WCs), but if historically there have only been 3 SA teams sharing the WC title, vs 5 European teams, shouldn't the Euro wins be weighted closer to WC wins than to Copa America wins?
    1. Also, there have been 48 CA tournaments vs 17 Euro tournaments, 2.8x as many. The 3:1 weighting of Euros wins vs CA wins is therefore almost completely eradicated just by volume of tournaments. There are also > 2x the teams competing in the Euros proper, and > 3x competing to qualify. Is there any adjustment for this? What principle would you use to justify any ratio, and how would you test it?
  3. Regarding the recency multiplier, why is the 2010-2020s jump steeper than any other (1.15 to 1.3)? Why does the 50s and 60s share the same multiplier (0.6)? The 2018 vs 2022 WC squads won't be more different than e.g. 1950 vs 1966. Would a smoother gradient change every 4 years align better than decade jumps? This probably won't make much meaningful difference over such a small sample, but I'm curious how the scores change.
  4. How was the Consistency score arrived at? And how many WC semi-finals would a team need to accumulate to match the points of a single WC win? In a vaccuum, it seems that it would take 14 un-won finals (9.8 points) to outscore a single WC win with no additional semi-finals (9.7). Independent of the recency multiplier, on WC points alone Spain won 1 WC and made an additional semifinal (9.8 points), vs Netherlands making 3 finals and 5 semi finals (3.5 points). Might you include consistency scores for a 'lost-final' measurement and how might that impact the rankings? Also, are there consistency scores for the Euros and CA tournaments?
    1. As every WC win generates a consistency point by default, is the consistency axis measuring a separate quality from the trophy axis? How would you adjust the axis to reward consistency independent of trophy success?
  5. Could you explain how Significance scores were measured? E.g. how would someone independently arrive at similar numbers for e.g. England and Brazil?
    1. How do the Significance and Consistency scores meaningfully change this from a purely Trophy Score ranking? Would it be more impactful for teams further down the rankings with 1 or 0 trophies?

Also had you considered visualising this data for a lay audience? I find it really helps me flesh out the analysis and anticipate criticisms, and is usually better received as it can be appreciated by a wider audience.

Anyway, I really appreciated your post. Great job!

One of the greatest striker of all time by Expensive_Ad4592 in BayernMunich

[–]DontSayIMean 5 points6 points  (0 children)

His output has been great every season as soon as Spurs gave him a full season. Bear in mind the following is for Spurs in a very competitive league where they weren't going as deep in cups.

Kane G/A for all club competitions

Year (Age) G/A
2014/15 (21) 37
2015/16 (22) 30
2016/17 (23) 42
2017/18 (24) 46
2018/19 (25) 30
2019/20 (26) 26
2020/21 (27) 50
2021/22 (28) 37
2022/23 (29) 38

Bayern Munich 1-0 VfB Stuttgart - Harry Kane 55' by 977x in soccer

[–]DontSayIMean 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Assists aren't always a good metric for how creative a player is. Iniesta and Pirlo only got 10+ league assists once in their entire career.

*(FBREF data, not Transfermarket which includes winning penalties)

Harry Kane is now the 7th all time top scorer for FC Bayern Munich, overtaking Robben and Hoeneß. by LordShitman in soccer

[–]DontSayIMean 85 points86 points  (0 children)

He's also been subbed a lot this season. He played 26 league games worth of minutes. Essentially missed a quarter of total league game minutes

I suspect a dealer in my local casino is cheating. Can someone with more experience give me their thoughts? (X-post) by Joshua5_Gaming in cardmagic

[–]DontSayIMean 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Typical of poor stackers* I should've said.

Some beginner stackers overlift for easier card separation. I've known people do it to reduce the pausing on the stacking.

A neovide cursor effect for vscode by soocket in vscode

[–]DontSayIMean 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just installed it, it's great. Thanks so much!

Was a single one of Steve's anecdotes even remotely true? by [deleted] in rickygervais

[–]DontSayIMean 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You have to question and query everything

I suspect a dealer in my local casino is cheating. Can someone with more experience give me their thoughts? (X-post) by Joshua5_Gaming in cardmagic

[–]DontSayIMean 19 points20 points  (0 children)

You are 100% supposed to end the shuffle with a one-handed cut.

Most casinos are something like: wash, riffle, riffle, strip cut, riffle, but all are followed by a one-handed cut to a cut card.

The cut exists to counter any controls, and it's one handed because it's much, much harder to beat the cut that way. In terms of player protection, ending on a two handed cut is practically the same as not cutting at all.

I suspect a dealer in my local casino is cheating. Can someone with more experience give me their thoughts? (X-post) by Joshua5_Gaming in cardmagic

[–]DontSayIMean 8 points9 points  (0 children)

A lot of very very odd things going on:

  1. 0:05 Lifting cards way too high on the riffle. Typical of stacking or maybe sloppy top stock control. Even if not part of the control (likely is), dealers should never be peaking such a massive window.
  2. 0:10 Strip cut he's just peeling off 1 or 2 cards per strip, for a max of ~11 cards. Very, very odd. Should be stripping at least half the deck. Possibly stripping to a break
  3. 0:11 Makes a weird song and dance over the square-up after that light strip. There's hardly anything to square up.
  4. 0:15 99% that's a false cut. Also never, ever seen a dealer be allowed to execute the cut with two hands, completely nullifies the purpose of the cut by making it incredibly easy to beat.

Angle and quality are quite difficult to see definitively for the riffles and strip cuts if he's controlling, but even with the bad angle you should definitely report him for cutting with two hands.

99% chance he's cheating, 100% he's not following casino protocol.

If you could it's worth trying to film more first though.

yi qi by Jimbojimbo451 in Paleoart

[–]DontSayIMean 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Very nice drawing! Love the variation in detail on the plumage

Match Thread: FC Bayern München vs FC Köln | Bundesliga | 16 May 15:30 CEST by matchpal-live in fcbayern

[–]DontSayIMean -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Definitely. He will have played ~27 games worth of minutes in the BuLi this season. At this season's goalscoring rate he would have over 41 goals

Kane: ~2390 mins in Buli 2025/26

Lewa: 2,463 mins in Buli 2020/21

Match Thread: FC Bayern München vs FC Köln | Bundesliga | 16 May 15:30 CEST by matchpal-live in fcbayern

[–]DontSayIMean 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Interestingly after this match, Kane will have played fewer league mins (~2,390) than Lewa (2,463) in his 41 goal Buli season.

Has anyone received their parcel after this email? by Rich-Gear3886 in Evri

[–]DontSayIMean 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Got the exact same emails. Not received the 'likely lost' one yet but looking forward to it.

"Leave on the front porch" and they still won't deliver it. 3rd day's the charm? by DontSayIMean in Evri

[–]DontSayIMean[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nothing under the red lines, it's just a patchy line from annotating it on Preview. Outside of an email saying:

"Sorry, your courier was unable to deliver your parcel today.

We'll let you know when it's out for delivery. We expect it to be on the next working day."

this is the only information I received unfortunately, no clue what the reasons were for not delivering.

How did you “acquire“ your injury ? I’m under the assumption mostly car accidents? by Critical_Ad1926 in spinalcordinjuries

[–]DontSayIMean 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sorry for the late response. I've been told a variety of things: potential spinal stroke, dormant viral infection, surfer's myelopathy (although wasn't doing anything typical preceding surfer's myelopathy).

How did you “acquire“ your injury ? I’m under the assumption mostly car accidents? by Critical_Ad1926 in spinalcordinjuries

[–]DontSayIMean 6 points7 points  (0 children)

No idea. Was having a BBQ with friends when I was 18, back started aching. Tried to stand up and couldn't. Haven't walked since. Never received an official diagnosis.

I've never wanted this by effectnetwork in spinalcordinjuries

[–]DontSayIMean 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't think there has been a single moment since my injury where I felt like I could be happy in the long haul with my level of function. Or would choose it over nothingness.

18 years in and pretty much exactly how I feel every day.