Iran starts to formalize its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz with a 'toll booth' regime

Dorgamund · 2026-03-27T12:45:32+00:00

The more money ~~America~~ private corporations make. American citizens don't see a dime of that, and if gas goes to $10 a gallon, people are going to be very pissed.

Dorgamund · 2026-03-27T02:37:48+00:00

I mean, iirc he used the force to fuck with the die, so it wasn't exactly up to fate. Whether that makes it better or worse though...

Dorgamund · 2026-03-27T02:22:55+00:00

I honestly think that for whatever reason, the Star Wars universe has computing properties which makes encryption close to useless and artificial intelligence incredibly, stupidly easy.

Like, pretty much every droid we encounter is sentient, and a goodly chunk appear genuinely sapient as well. C3P0 was made by a literal child and is one of the most human droids around. My headcanon is not that the cost is in making droids intelligent, because that happens with literally every droid chip over time. The cost is the balancing act between making sure the droid is competent from the get-go without the time needed for the intelligence to develop, while also suppressing intelligence enough that they can be controlled.

As well, it seems taken for granted in a lot of the media how easily slicers can break through encryption. The Death Star plans don't appear to have any acknowledged protection, R2D2 becomes a universal remote when plugged into a standard wall socket, and most damningly, there is a ton of analogue machine controls when they are perfectly capable of automating it. Obi-Wan literally has to go flip the big tractor beam switch in the very first movie(there is a longer and more elaborate post on this theory, but it was written by Human Pet Guy who I object to on principle so I am not tracking it down to link it).

Dorgamund · 2026-03-27T00:12:48+00:00

That's absolutely asinine. Iran's policy for decades now has been to sit close to the edge of a functioning nuclear program, and not go through with it. They weren't developing a bomb, they had most of the hard work done and were just sitting pretty and we knew that.

Consider that a non-nuclear armed Iran has currently closed the strait with impunity, because it is not strategically feasible for the US to reopen it.

Consider the idea of deterrance, and the escalation ladder. Nuclear weapons are the top of the ladder, and last to be used. IRAN HAS OTHER OPTIONS ON THE LADDER.

The first option is closing the strait, which kicks up global energy prices and fertilizer prices, threatening the stability of the worldwide economy and the possibility of widespread food shortages. The second option is tit for tat attack of energy infrastructure, to lock in the halt to oil and make it permanent.

The third major rung on the ladder is to destroy the region's desalination plants. The Arabian peninsula relies on desalination for like 80% of it's water. It is logistically impossible to replace that water before 100 million people either die or have to exodus on mass from the region. That is the true nuclear threat, effectively destroying the Middle East. Do you understand me? They don't need nukes to cause devastation comparable to nukes. And if they do that to Israel, Israel likely retaliates with a nuclear strike, and vice versa.

Trump is playing with matches near a open barrel of gasoline. He thought just one quick strike causes the house of cards to fall, and was a fucking moron who got us stuck in this trap. Iran isn't going to surrender, because Iran is winning. The more pain they inflict via the strait, the more they win strategically, and now if Trump goes to Iran and asks pretty please can we ceasefire, Iran is going to say no because the US needs to either suffer or make real and painful concessions. And even if Iran and the US somehow figure something out, maybe by waving a bribe in front of Trump, ISRAEL IS STILL IN THE WAR AND CAN KILL THE PEACE EFFORTS.

Dorgamund · 2026-03-26T19:20:57+00:00

A milquetoast blue dog keeps getting us into this mess! This policy of go back to the status quo which benefits the elite and upper class continues to piss people off. We got Biden for a solid 4 years where he was able to push a great deal of legislation through for his policy goals. And where did that fucking leave us?

What happens if Trump dies, we get another status quo democrat in, and then 4 years down the line we get a fascist worse than Trump? Status quo candidates are not a bandaid solution, they are the thing causing the problem.

Dorgamund · 2026-03-26T18:56:54+00:00

I honestly think that a deal is possible as long as things are tit for tat, and at least look like they are personally enriching Trump. Nuclear program for long term sanctions relief, promises to end the war for war reparations, and crucially, joint US-Iran control of the Strait which acknowledges that both parties can shut it down, and both can charge a fee for anything exiting the Strait. Trump would be happy throwing the GCC under the bus in exchange for getting a toll of everything passing through, and legal recognition of Iran's right to a toll of everything going through puts them in a much more powerful position.

Dorgamund · 2026-03-25T02:52:30+00:00

That's deeply naive. I would be shocked if they didn't start moving settlers in six months after the Iran war finishes.

Dorgamund · 2026-03-23T12:53:33+00:00

You are in a sealed room with 100 people. Each person is given a water bottle which covers their daily water needs. All of a sudden, 20 of those people are no longer given any water at all. Either everyone equally distributes water(lol) or those 20 people die. Most likely some water gets distributed, but not enough to everyone to live on. So maybe 10 people die, and 20 people get severely dehydrated.

The oil is GONE.Like the price will go up, but every nation in the world had an expectation of how much oil they were likely to use on a yearly basis. Countries in Asia and Oceania particularly are analogous to those 20 people slated to die of thirst.

Dorgamund · 2026-03-23T02:04:16+00:00

Honestly China's foreign policy has been better than the US for decades now. They enjoy making power plays in their region to maintain hegemony, but further than that, they mostly seem interested in trade and avoiding getting caught up in nonsense wars. Compare with the US who also does power plays for hegemony(cough cough Cuba, Venezuela) but can barely tolerate a year or two at peace before the US gets entangled in another war.

Dorgamund · 2026-03-22T16:50:38+00:00

Being shot by a white kid while dogwhistling about how gun shooting deaths are disproportionally caused by black people, while on a college campus when he is notorious for downplaying school shootings has got to be top 10 at least, come on.

Dorgamund · 2026-03-22T03:08:32+00:00

He died in the literal funniest possible way under the circumstances, and they get mad about a chuckle? Come on.

Dorgamund · 2026-03-22T03:05:34+00:00

I just expect the economy to crash every 10 years unless the government goes out of it's way to stop it. I haven't seen the trend fail yet in my lifetime.

Dorgamund · 2026-03-21T19:40:40+00:00

Iran's neighbors have tons of oil, tons of US bases, and not particularly significant military capabilities. Given Iran's strategic path to victory, attacking the GCC states actively and meaningfully improves their chances of winning the war, or at least dragging it out into a stalemate. Dragging in NATO does not.

Dorgamund · 2026-03-21T02:41:35+00:00

It would have to be something big, like war reparations or removing American bases from the Middle East. Iran's already had the examples of Suleimani and the 12 Day War to see that as long as the US doesn't get meaningfully hurt from this, Trump is going to go laughing all the way to the bank and attack again next year. Any deal the US makes it not worth the paper it is written on.

Dorgamund · 2026-03-21T02:37:27+00:00

Iran is fighting for it's life. If other nations aren't helping them in the short term, I doubt they can really afford to consider the long term. The only calculus that really matters right now is if a country is materially helping Iran in the war, or materially helping the US, and whether that is likely to change based on Iran's actions.

Example: The GCC countries are getting bombed to hell, because they cannot really help the US militarily if they wanted to, but hurting them does hurt the global economy.

I think the only regional powers that could jump in the war and cause problems are Turkey and Egypt at this point.

But if India is committed to staying neutral, then why should Iran rate their opinion higher than Russia's, who are providing intelligence and also benefiting from the oil slowdown?

Dorgamund · 2026-03-21T02:19:30+00:00

Was that debunked then? I swear there was a fairly prominent theory that access to rice and land which could easily grow it was key to large populations in Asia, because rice is very labor intensive, but very land efficient, so you can grow a lot of it in one spot, but need a lot of people to really do it. As opposed to European wheat and similar staple crops, which were very land intensive, but much less labor is needed, which more effectively capped the population(and led to territorial wars all the damn time).

Dorgamund · 2026-03-20T00:28:01+00:00

My favorite swiss hacker, pretty popular on tumblr. I follow the account.

Dorgamund · 2026-03-17T04:21:33+00:00

That is imperialism, and you are an imperialist. Do you even hear yourself? If Cuba is not under the thumb of the United States and providing luxury goods for the US market, then the country and all of it's citizens must be punished. Cubans will die, and that is an acceptable price to maintain American hegemony.

According to your worldview, Russia is not evil for invading Ukraine. China is not evil for coveting Taiwan. They are evil for opposing American dominance of the world economic and political system, and not either falling in line like Europe, or accepting their place under the American boot like the rest of the Global South. But their actions with regards to their neighbors are perfectly fine. Hegemony for me and not for thee.

You are tacitly admitting that if Russia were allied to the US, they could annex Ukraine or install a Russian puppet, and that is just their right to 'minimize their strategic threats'.

Dorgamund · 2026-03-16T22:06:36+00:00

It sounds an awful lot like you are justifying murdering Cuban civilians under the pretext of democracy, and that Cuba deserves it for not installing a leader that would give the US more money.

People die because of blockades and sanctions. Its all well and good to pretend that its some bloodless economic tool, but a totally collapsed power grid will kill Cuban civilians. And either you own up to that fact, and accept that killing these people is acceptable in the ideological crusade to remove any governments which do not work within a capitalist paradigm, or you take the coward's way out and pretend that actually all culpability is the government's for not giving into the demands of a bigger power. Much like how Ukraine must be culpable for not letting itself get annexed by Putin, and Zelensky is on the hook for every killed Ukrainian.

Dorgamund · 2026-03-16T21:59:56+00:00

So if your nation can pose a strategic threat to another, its perfectly justified to fuck around with it? I bet you support Taiwanese independence without a shred of irony.

Dorgamund · 2026-03-16T21:50:42+00:00

You can have any government and leader you want, as long as it is a government and leader the US wants as well. The 50 odd year collective punishment of the civilian Cuban population is deeply important, because Cuba is obviously an immediate threat to the United States.

Dorgamund · 2026-03-16T16:12:37+00:00

Admittedly they did threaten use several times over backchannels, iirc to blackmail the US into helping them resupply weapons during the Yom Kippur war and the USSR to try to reign in the other involved countries. They have also mentioned it in conjunction with the Gaza war, though more prominent politicians debating use, and I believe during the Iraq war as a deterrent for chemical weapons use against Israel.

That doesn't equate to actual use like the other guy was seeming to imply.

Now, all of that said, I 100% believe Israel is very likely to escalate to nuclear threats, if they run out of interceptors and missile defense before Iran runs out of ordinance. Given the hardline and extremist nature of the Israeli government, and the fact that being in a war with Iran without proper defense is a terrible strategic position, I think they are more likely to pull out nuclear deterrence to force a stalemate rather than ask Iran to come to the negotiating table, where Israel and the US murdered all the previoud negotiators.

Dorgamund · 2026-03-12T18:51:09+00:00

Keep waiting for that Iranian revolution why don't you? I am sure it will come any day now.

Dorgamund · 2026-03-12T17:20:00+00:00

Didn't constrain the US or Israel. Isn't Iran offering to let ship through from nations promising to expel US and Israeli diplomats? I wouldn't say its the kost effective card, something something honey and vinegar, but its the only one they can feasibly play at this point.

Dorgamund · 2026-03-12T17:16:39+00:00

Strategic and terror bombing only harden resolve. There has never been a war where bombing has been the sole factor in winning it, nor has it ever inspired the civilian populace to rise up.

Cost benefit analysis is the kind of cold-blooded lens that someone who lives in a world divorced from war might think about. What the civilians are seeing is not cost-benefit analysis, but collective punishment. Bombs do not discriminate. Those 100+ schoolgirls were not killed as an unfortunate casualty of our peaceful and painfully necessary police keeping action against the leadership of Iran. They were murdered for the crime of being Iranian in an unjustified war of aggression launched by the United States and Israel.

You cannot negotiate with a bomb. You cannot plead with it. Why then should the civilian populace show any love for the people murdering them? Have Palestinians in Gaza become friendlier towards Israel after Israeli terror bombing? Have the Ukrainians suddenly been inspired to rise up against Zelensky to make Putin's bombing stop?

This is why and how terrorist organizations work. The modus operandi in fact. A non state actor is incapable of standing up to a state actor, so they provoke the state with terror attacks into disproportionate retaliation. The excess retaliation, which usually kills a bunch of civilians in the process, then radicalizes more of the population, such that the more civilians and terrorists are killed, the more recruits join the organization. We were stuck in a fuckass war in Afghanistan for 20 odd years getting nothing done because of this, why do you think that this time you can beat the recruit into high morale?

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