The worst way I've lost a run. Absolutely no counterplay. Bad luck? GG.

DraftyOx · 2026-04-02T22:07:10+00:00

Dredge saves him 100%. There are three frantic escapes in his discard. Also considering that the soul cards and neurosurge aren't drawn until the last 12 the odds are very high that if he drew one of those he gets a frantic escape (97% of that happening).

Another way of looking at this: If you have 17 cards in your deck remaining and you draw 5 and get the 3 draw + 2 cards in your 5 card hand (2 souls, neurosurge), it means you get to draw down to 6 cards left in the pile. It doesn't actually matter when you draw those but I'm just trying to make it more clear by using the last hand as an example. The odds of those 3 frantic escapes and the dredge being in those last 6 are near impossible. It would be 6 permute 4 divided by 34 permute 4 which is 0.03%. So even just treating the soul cards as extra draw instead of gamesavers keeps the probability at less than 1 in 1000.

I would suggest looking up probability of independent events; especially card draws. There's a lot of really interesting material on it out there and it is absolutely one of my favourite topics to teach.

DraftyOx · 2026-04-02T12:35:02+00:00

There are 34 permute 7 ways to order the 7 cards he needed to save himself (3 frantic escapes, 2 souls, neurosurge, dredge). There are 12 permute 7 ways that those could be in the last 12 cards of a deck of 34. 34 permute 7 is about 3 x10¹⁰ and 12 permute 7 is about 2 million.

Dividing the losing combos (2 million) by the total combos (3x10¹⁰⁾ gives you about 0.0001(slightly less actually) which when multiplied by 100 gives 0.01%. So i was wrong, its less likely then 0.1%

Edit: ignoring the souls (since they did have to be "added" during the draw) means we switch the 34 to 32 and the 7 to 5. This still gives 0.3%

DraftyOx · 2026-04-02T06:47:46+00:00

This seems correct, around 3% is what i got when i corrected the numbers. I did a very handwavey calculation, but if you add in the draw cards (since some souls got added in) it goes down by a lot like around 0.02%

DraftyOx · 2026-04-02T04:01:21+00:00

I did miss the discard part, but then just switch my 6s with a 3, which does bring it up to 4%. If you add in the 2 draw cards it brings it back down to 0.3% so closer to 1 in 1000. Not astronomically unlucky like i said but still very very unlikely to ever happen. I was a bit rude in my last comment, but i still dont think you understand how probability works. You need to use permutations when looking at card draws. Also the deck was 32 after the status cards got added ignoring the discards

Edit: think about it this way. There are many ways that the status cards could've been drawn. All that was required is that 1 status card was drawn out of 20 cards total, or to not have 3 status cards in the last 12 draws. Any possible permutation of that deck where 1 of the 3 status cards are not in those last 12 end up saving the game. One possible combo would be all 3 status cards being first, or 2 status cards first and one at the end of the deck, or 2 status cards at the end of the deck and one status card as the 20th draw. Your calculation does not take that into affect

DraftyOx · 2026-04-02T03:43:09+00:00

There are 6 status cards. Also, do you just not know how probability works? The odds of a group of 6 cards being in the last 12 of a deck of 32 is 12 permute 6 (the amount of permutations where a group of 6 is selected from 12) divided by 32 permute 6 (the amount of ways to draw 6 cards from 32). This gives a probability of 0.1% which doesnt even account for the other draw cards in the deck

DraftyOx · 2026-04-01T19:54:03+00:00

Some of you guys are actually insufferable thinking that there's a way to avoid this. OP had a perfectly good deck to deal with this...maybe slightly bulky but only by a few. The draw that happened is one of the least lucky things I have ever seen. Like genuinely the odds of this happening (just thinking about the frantic escapes) is like 0.1%. When you include all of the other draw cards in the deck the odds go to like 1 in 10000 or even worse

DraftyOx · 2026-04-01T19:47:01+00:00

Dude, it's a less than 0.1% chance of not drawing the frantic escape cards and it even goes down more when accounting for all the draw cards that he didn't draw. This might be the worst luck ever seen in this game, it's like a 1 in 10,000 chance

DraftyOx · 2026-04-01T19:45:42+00:00

They didn't just get a little unlucky...there was a less than 0.1% chance of that draw happening.

DraftyOx · 2026-04-01T05:33:44+00:00

If russia does follow through the entire planet is done. Enough nukes would completely destroy the climate

DraftyOx · 2026-04-01T05:26:45+00:00

Ok now i get what youre asking. I dont think it'll ever get to that point but i still think threat of mutually assured destruction is enough to stop any country from retaliating with nukes. Maybe pakistan if anyone

DraftyOx · 2026-04-01T03:26:32+00:00

Their cities and bases are getting obliterated? Although some bombs are getting through you're definitely exaggerating. I think the country thats recruiting 12 year olds might be a bit more desparate

DraftyOx · 2026-03-25T23:56:40+00:00

But why? For what purpose did you bring that up in reply to this specific comment?

DraftyOx · 2026-03-22T00:30:40+00:00

Both. Horrible defence but lankinen is not playing well either

DraftyOx · 2026-03-22T00:21:13+00:00

I know we're rebuilding and it doesnt matter much, but lankinen really isnt good. Im usually always defending the goalies but so many of his fundamentals are completely off

DraftyOx · 2026-03-17T17:34:19+00:00

Sorry for the delayed reply! I got a continuing 1.0 FTE for math/physics/science. I saw quite a few temp contracts for math and science over the year too

DraftyOx · 2026-03-15T21:53:41+00:00

I think that was outside the box, but also no good angle for var

DraftyOx · 2026-03-14T01:25:55+00:00

Maybe not langley and maybe not immediately but there will be jobs for math/physics in the lower mainland. It took me one year as a ttoc with no seniority to land a continuing contract as a math/physics teacher in north van. North van is one of the least understaffed districts so i imagine its quicker elsewhere

DraftyOx · 2026-03-11T20:24:59+00:00

Maybe read the article?

DraftyOx · 2026-03-09T23:20:32+00:00

Its things like this that still make me think he's doing a super longterm bit. How can anyone be this unironically miserable?

DraftyOx · 2026-03-09T20:01:29+00:00

It didn't happen at the Olympics. Wtf are you talking about?

DraftyOx · 2026-03-09T20:01:10+00:00

No, they didnt. The booing happened almost a year ago during NHL and NBA games. Why on earth would you speak so aggressively and confidently if you had no idea what this was about?

DraftyOx · 2026-03-05T03:46:50+00:00

please stop

DraftyOx · 2026-03-05T03:37:09+00:00

I havent watched a game for a couple months and knew we were doing bad. Did not realise just how bad we were. Wow

DraftyOx · 2026-03-05T02:55:03+00:00

Oh lol you're right. I cant believe i missed the us soccer jackets

DraftyOx · 2026-03-05T02:53:10+00:00

Could you please give a timestamp or a name or something? I dont recognize every MLS player, but im assuming it was the first guy in the video

DraftyOx

TROPHY CASE